Pitt vs NC State Odds, Pick: Coming Down to the Wire?

Neither the Pitt Panthers nor the NC State Wolfpack find themselves on the right side of the bubble right now, as the ACC has taken a bit of a hit — especially when looking at teams other than North Carolina and Duke.

However, both of these teams have picked up some solid wins over the past few weeks. The Panthers have taken down Duke and Wake Forest, while the Wolfpack have beaten Wake Forest and Virginia.

That being said, Pitt may match up a bit better in this one with NC State. The Panthers can hit the 3, and they shoot plenty of them. They should also crash the glass and win the rebounding battle in an effort to keep this game close on the road.

Here's Pitt vs. NC State odds and a pick.

The Panthers can shoot. They're hitting about 34% as a unit, but they shoot the 32nd-most 3s in the country. Ishmael Leggett, Blake Hinson and Guillermo Diaz Graham are the usual suspects from deep, each hitting at least 35%.

The Panthers rank in the top 90 in Open-3 Rate, per ShotQuality, so the majority of the time, the 3s they take are good ones. On the other side, the Wolfpack are permitting opponents to shoot over 34% from deep while ranking 295th nationally in Open 3-Rate.

The Panthers should have a field day offensively and manufacture open looks from downtown consistently on this porous Wolfpack perimeter defense.

Pitt can rebound much better than the Wolfpack as well. The Panthers rank 81st offensively and 18th defensively, while NC State comes in 185th or lower on both ends of the floor.

NC State’s best rebounders typically reside on the bench, so Pitt should find some second-chance buckets on offense while holding the Wolfpack to very few.

Neither of these teams draws many fouls on offense, but the Wolfpack tend to foul far more often on the defensive end.

With this game taking place in Raleigh and Pitt shooting just 69% as a team, the home-court advantage will be closer to even if anything. Still, the Panthers don't send other teams to the line often.

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NC State’s offense hasn't been its strong suit.

The Wolfpack are shooting below 33% from deep and under 50% from inside the arc. They shoot 2-pointers more often, providing an automatic boost to a Panthers team that can hit plenty of 3s.

The Wolfpack rank 315th in Offensive Rim-and-3 Rate, per ShotQuality, while Pitt sits in the top 100 — another big discrepancy that favors the Panthers.

Now, NC State might not shoot well, but it doesn't make mistakes on the offensive end. That said, Pitt doesn't turn the ball over much either, so the turnover margin should be relatively even.

One player Pitt will have to watch out for is DJ Horne, who's shooting 42% from 3-point land. He may be NC State’s only true deep threat, but he's consistent.

Pitt allows opponents to shoot plenty of 3s, but its foes are hitting just 30.1% from deep. Even still, the Panthers come in outside the top 125 in Defensive Open-3 Rate, which could be a concern if Horne gets hot from outside. However, if Pitt zeroes in on him, the Wolfpack don't have many other options for a quick triple.

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Even though Pitt's on the road here, it's the better team.

It should carve up the Wolfpack defense from 3, and if the Panthers run cold outside, they can still win the rebounding battle. NC State just doesn't have the offensive firepower or deep threats to keep up with Pitt — even if Horne catches fire from deep.

This could come down to the wire, so I'll take the points with the Panthers and play them to a PK.

Pick: Pitt +3.5 (Play to PK)

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