Providence vs Xavier Odds, Pick: Friars Match Up Well

Providence hits the road and travels to the Cintas Center for a crucial game that could decide its NCAA Tournament fate.

The Friars are the first team out of the Big Dance right now per Bracket Matrix, and the season-ending injury to Bryce Hopkins will do them no favors in the eyes of the selection committee.

Xavier has little hope left for an at-large bid, but the Musketeers can still improve their Big East Tournament seed with a win. Doing so would vault the Muskies ahead of Providence and into at least a tie for fifth place in the conference.

Game 1 between these two teams wasn’t close. Xavier won by 20 at Providence in a shocking beatdown. Can the Friars return the favor?

Providence has shooting regression on its side in this game after the 3-point gods blessed the Musketeers in Game 1. In that contest, Xavier shot 12-of-24 from deep, while Providence mustered just an 8-of-30 clip from the Land of Plenty.

Regression suggests these splits will be closer in the rematch.

The Friars are in their comfort zone in this game — that is, they're an underdog, a position in which they've thrived all season long. Providence is a robust 8-2 against the spread as a 'dog and 6-2 against the spread on the road.

There might not be a bigger cockroach in college basketball this season – one does not simply kill the Providence Friars.

Star guard Devin Carter is the main driver of Providence’s never-say-die attitude. He's a stone-cold killer who turns into Michael Jordan down the stretches of games. The Friars are always in the game as long as Carter is on the floor.

Aggressiveness and scrappiness have kept Providence afloat without the services of Hopkins. The Friars get to the foul line at the highest rate in the league, and Xavier falls more on the “softer” side of Big East defenses (with all due respect).

Providence will run its offense through center Josh Oduro, who should have no trouble getting Xavier big man Abou Ousmane in foul trouble. Doing so would take away Xavier’s only true defensive post presence and open a large lane to the tin.

Per usual, Providence will need a third player to step up alongside Carter and Oduro if it plans on winning this contest outright. Ticket Gaines, Jayden Pierre, Corey Floyd and Garwey Dual have all been that guy at times this season, but it’s anyone’s guess who will pick up the mantle on a nightly basis.

An off-game from Carter and/or Oduro could spell doom for the Friars in a hostile environment.

The must-have app for college basketball bettors

The best NCAAB betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Xavier will look to prove it can repeat its Game 1 performance when it scored 1.27 points per possession.

The Muskies destroyed Providence in transition, scoring 1.82 points per possession on 17 tries. That’s been a key scoring avenue for them all season, as they rank 20th in percentage of possessions used in transition and 61st in points per possession in transition, per Synergy.

The problem for Xavier is it can be one-dimensional offensively, and that's bad news if shots aren’t falling. Xavier has been a jump-shooting team all year, ranking 216th in field-goal attempt rate at the rim versus 67th in 2-point jumper attempt rate, per Hoop-Math.

If Providence can close off the open floor and force Xavier to miss tough shots, winning becomes difficult for the Muskies — they simply cannot score effectively at the rim.

When not looking to push, Xavier will settle into a ball-screen-centric half-court offense. This action succeeded in Game 1 against Providence, as Xavier scored 1.136 points per possession off ball screens.

Multiple guards can create out of the pick-and-roll, including Desmond Claude, Dayvion McKnight and even sharpshooter Quincy Olivari.

Providence’s half-court defense has been sound all season, but Xavier cracked it with ball screens in Game 1. We’ll see which coach makes the better adjustments in Game 2.

Betting against Providence as an underdog has been a losing endeavor all season. The Friars’ ability to keep games close, make runs and get stops at the end of games is uncanny.

Therefore, the best play in this one is likely Providence plus the points, with five being optimal and four being fine.

It’s unlikely Xavier shoots as well as it did in Game 1, and Providence’s path to points (i.e. the post and Devin Carter) seems more sustainable than Xavier’s (i.e. jump shooting).

The tougher team in this game is Providence, though the coaching edge is emphatically with Xavier.

The total feels a tad inflated in this one, as the game likely plays to mid-60s possessions. Xavier likely doesn’t shoot 50% from 3 as in Game 1, and Providence hardly ever scores super efficiently.

The under also looks enticing if Providence can shut the water off to Xavier’s transition game.

Pick: Providence +5 (Play to +4)