UNLV vs New Mexico Odds, Pick for Saturday

UNLV needs to be talked about more.

The Mountain West is a wildly talented and deep conference, and the Runnin’ Rebels usually get left out of the conversation, stuck in the shadows of the top six vying for an at-large bid.

But very quietly, Kevin Kruger’s built a top-70 college basketball offense through efficient interior scoring and steady ball-handling.

The Rebels are only 5-4 in conference play, but the predictive metrics rate them higher, as they’ve gotten unlucky with some late-game variance. They’re off three consecutive wins, so maybe momentum lies in Las Vegas.

Meanwhile, not another word needs to be said about New Mexico’s electric backcourt, uber-strong home-court advantage and star-adjacent head coach. The Lobos are a top-20 KenPom team vying for a top-eight NCAA Tournament seed.

But UNLV beat these Lobos in Sin City earlier this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rebels did it again.

As alluded to, UNLV’s been a bit unlucky.

Four of the Rebels’ past six losses have come by a combined nine points, including a wild double-overtime loss to an excellent Saint Mary’s team.

Some balls bounce the other way, and we might be discussing the Mountain West as a seven-bid league.

UNLV also hasn’t shot well this year, ranking 10th among conference teams in 3-point shooting during league play (32.6%). A few more shots fall, and who knows!

But the Rebels aren’t due for much positive shooting regression. They don’t create many open looks, and they don’t have great shot makers. They also don’t shoot much from behind the arc anyway.

Instead, UNLV grinds you down on the block, leveraging Kalib Boone (12.7 points per game) in post-up sets to generate 34 paint points per game (77th percentile).

A key component of the Rebels’ post-heavy offense is the guard play of Dedan Thomas.

As mentioned, the Rebels are a steady ball-handling squad, ranking in the top 40 nationally in turnover rate. And that’s largely thanks to Thomas, who’s dishing out six assists per game with a relatively solid 14% turnover rate.

It’s his job to quarterback the offense and get the ball into the post. So far, so good.

His performance will be crucial here. Richard Pitino’s Lobos are renowned for their aggressive, press-heavy defensive coverages.

But behind Thomas, the Rebels rank 22nd nationally in PPP against the press (1.05).

In the last matchup, UNLV racked up 20 assists to only 10 turnovers, with Thomas putting up seven and three, respectively, himself. Most of those assists went to Boone, who poured in 29 on 11-for-16 (69%) shooting.

While the offense should be fine, UNLV’s defense worries me. Outside of forcing turnovers against ball screens at the point of attack, the Rebels don’t do much.

If you can get the ball into the interior with a roll-man (1.24 PPP allowed, fifth percentile), the rim is yours for the taking, as the Rebels allow 32 paint points per game (38th percentile), rank 258th nationally in 2-point defense (52%) and 311th in at-the-rim PPP allowed (1.19).

And they’re no better at defending perimeter spot-up shooters, ranking 350th nationally in High Quality 3s allowed, per ShotQuality.

New Mexico shot 57% from inside the arc in the last meeting, but the Lobos dropped that game thanks to a 2-for-11 3-point shooting performance. I would expect that to change at The Pit.

The Lobos are a dream college hoops team to watch.

Jaelen House, Jamal Mashburn and Donovan Dent are so fun. The Lobos run at a top-10 pace but lead the Mountain West in turnover rate (13.4%), as the guards play quickly and make decisive decisions without mistakes.

When they’re not running in transition, the Lobo guards make quick, decisive, mistake-free decisions in one of the nation’s best rim-running ball-screen offenses. New Mexico scores over 20 points on 22 pick-and-roll sets per game. The guards handle the ball, and Nelly Junior Joseph sets the screen and rolls to the rim.

The result is an offense that scores over 42 paint points per game, a top-four mark nationally.

While the guards do most of the work, I must shout out Junior Joseph. He’s a great fit in Pitino’s system, as he’s an uber-efficient roll-man (1.19 PPP, 70th percentile). Throw in frontcourt mate JT Toppin (1.19 roll-man PPP, 70th percentile), and the Lobos have a legit one-two down-low scoring duo.

In the prior matchup, New Mexico generated 29 points on 28 pick-and-roll sets against UNLV, breaking the coveted 1.00 PPP mark.

And the Lobos aren’t afraid to play defense, ranking first in the Mountain West in defensive efficiency by forcing the most steals and swatting the most shots.

Again, shout out Junior Joseph for his 6% block rate.

As mentioned, the Lobos are an aggressive, press-heavy team. The scheme is working.

However, the inherently aggressive, perimeter-based nature of the scheme does leave them vulnerable to second-chance buckets, as they rank sixth in the Mountain West in defensive rebounding rate while allowing over 10 second-chance points per game (46th percentile) at 1.14 PPP (31st percentile).

But I don’t expect UNLV to exploit that weakness, as the Rebels are an all-around bad rebounding team.

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UNLV pulled off a massive upset in the prior meeting, but there was plenty of luck involved.

New Mexico shot 2-for-11 from 3 (18%), while the Rebels shot 10-for-22 (46%). With more routine and less variable shooting splits, the Lobos would’ve probably taken that road game.

That said, I still think UNLV puts up a good fight here.

The Rebels won’t succumb to the press, meaning they’ll get their shots up. Given that they’re a post-heavy offense against a lackluster post defense, I like their chances. Specifically, I like Boone’s chances of posting another monster stat line.

Again, the Rebels posted a 20:10 assist-to-turnover ratio in the past meeting and shot 53% from inside the arc. Even if they don’t make as many 3s, I still expect a relatively solid offensive performance.

Conversely, UNLV’s defense is porous, and New Mexico got whatever it wanted in the first meeting – except for 3-point makes, but I expect shooting luck to flip down in Albuquerque.

A key matchup is New Mexico’s transition offense against UNLV’s transition defense. Few teams are as explosive in the open court as the Lobos (1.19 PPP, 96th percentile), and the Rebels are rather pedestrian in transition defense (1.05 PPP allowed, 35th percentile).

New Mexico should keep scoring in transition and have no problem rim-running against UNLV’s turnstile interior defense. Again, the Lobos average over 42 paint points per game, while the Rebels allow over 32.

In the past matchup, the Lobos shot 2-for-11 from 3 and still dropped 73 points on the road in a 70-possession game. They shot 57% from inside the arc, scoring 42 paint points and 10 fast-break points.

In the rematch, the Lobos will get to their spots in ball screens, score plenty on run-outs, dominate the interior, and more-than-likely reach 80 points with some extra longballs at home. And they’ll likely be motivated to score as much as possible in a revenge game.

That last matchup went Over 152. These two combined for 161 total points in last year’s meeting.

Between the Lobos’ wanted revenge and the schematic matchup, I smell a shootout.

Pick: Over 153.5

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