NCAAB Odds, Pick for West Virginia vs Iowa State

The Iowa State Cyclones have been a juggernaut at home this season, going 13-3 against the spread. Iowa State is also coming off of a loss at Houston last Monday, so this should be a good spot for the Cyclones.

West Virginia will be their opponent on Saturday. The Mountaineers received some good news recently, as Kerr Kriisa and Noah Farrakhan returned to the floor. However, it may be too little, too late for the redemption of a bleak season for the Mountaineers.

Kriisa may be a good distributor, but he has the propensity to jack up horrible shots, too.

Read for NCAAB odds and a pick for West Virginia vs. Iowa State.

West Virginia has an abhorrent offense. It owns the 270th-best effective field goal percentage in the nation, and much of this is driven by an awful 2-point percentage.

Iowa State has held opponents to 36.5% from inside the perimeter, but the Cyclones do rank 154th in Defensive Points per Possession at the rim this season, per ShotQuality. At the same time, Iowa State ranks fourth in frequency of shots at the rim on defense, so it should limit the interior attack from West Virginia.

The Mountaineers’ main source of offense has come from getting to the free-throw line, which is good news because Iowa State tends to get a bit over-aggressive on defense and foul. However, being at home will always lead to more favorable whistles for the home team — something that's especially true for power conference teams.

West Virginia typically doesn't foul much on defense, so this margin might be slightly favorable for the Mountaineers. Still, it may not be as large of an edge as they expect.

WVU has a decent 3-point shooting attack at times. The Mountaineers are hitting almost 34% from deep, and Kriisa can help that after shooting about 37% last year.

Iowa State allows opponents to shoot a ton of 3s, but West Virginia doesn't take the best 3s, sitting 270th in Open-3 Rate, per ShotQuality. The Mountaineers may be their own enemy from beyond the arc if they can't take advantage of Iowa State’s lone defensive weakness.

The must-have app for college basketball bettors

The best NCAAB betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Now, Iowa State may not take a lot of 3s, but the Cyclones are hitting about 36% from deep. West Virginia ranks 249th in Defensive Open-3 Rate and permits opponents to shoot most of their shots from deep, so opponents are shooting well from outside on the Mountaineers.

Kriisa and Farrakhan help with the depth in this backcourt, but this alone will not solve WVU’s defensive woes on the perimeter.

Iowa State will take most of its shots from inside, though, and West Virginia isn't too keen on guarding the interior either. The Cyclones are efficient at the rim as well, so the Mountaineers will have their hands full. Look for ISU to continue its attack inside when it starts to work.

The Cyclones’ most important attribute is forcing turnovers, where they rank second nationally. Tamin Lipsey, Curtis Jones, Keshon Gilbert and Tre King can all force mistakes. Luckily for them, the Mountaineers also turn it over consistently.

West Virginia, meanwhile, doesn't force turnovers defensively.

Iowa State will also get out and score in transition. West Virginia can't defend in the open floor at all, so this could get ugly and could also be the key factor to Iowa State’s cover in this matchup.

Iowa State is too good at home to not overcome West Virginia’s addition of Kriisa and Farrakhan.

The Cyclones should hold an edge in almost every facet of the game and will dominate on the interior, on the glass and in transition. Take Iowa State in a rout to -20.5.

Pick: Iowa State -17.5 (Play to -20.5)