College Basketball Odds, Best Bets: Tuesday’s Regular Season Picks, Including San Diego State vs. Boise State & More
Jamie Schwaberow/NCAA Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Boise State’s Marcus Shaver Jr.
Tuesdays in February are for college basketball, and we have plenty of action on the docket with both regular-season and conference tournament games scheduled.
Three Man Weave, Tanner McGrath and Shane McNichol dished out their best bets for today’s conference tournament games, and our staff came through with four of their regular-season best bets below.
Whether you’re looking for an early Big Ten battle to bet or hoping to cash a ticket in a late Mountain West showdown, we have you covered.
Check out all four of our staff’s best bets for Tuesday’s regular-season college basketball games below.
Tuesday’s College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball staff is targeting from Tuesday’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Iowa vs. Indiana
I love the spot here for the Hoosiers returning home after a massive win in West Lafayette over rival Purdue.
Indiana has been playing high-level basketball since the end of January, and there should be plenty of motivation to end the regular season strong with two final home games.
Meanwhile, Iowa heads east to Bloomington fresh off of a dramatic comeback against Michigan State in a game where the Hawkeyes trailed by 13 points with 1:33 remaining.
It’s hard to envision full focus for the Hawkeyes in this one after all of those late-game heroics.
The Hoosiers will also have revenge on their minds after squandering a 20-point lead when these two teams first met in Iowa City in early January.
Iowa’s shooting splits take a major hit when it’s not inside the friendly confines of Carver-Hawkeye Arena.
Couple that with an Indiana defense that comfortably sits inside the top 50 in the nation in adjusted efficiency, and I believe you’ll likely see Iowa struggle in the half-court in this one.
On the other end, the Hoosiers should carve up a very pedestrian Iowa defense. Jalen Hood-Schifino will be able to penetrate and find his midrange game, and there’s nobody on the Hawkeye roster who can cover Trayce Jackson-Davis one-on-one on the block.
I’m laying the points with Indiana in a game that doesn’t need to be particularly close.
Pick: Indiana -5 (Play to -6.5)
Clemson vs. Virginia
By D.J. James
The Virginia Cavaliers rank 360th in adjusted tempo in college hoops. They force opponents to use up 18.8 seconds per possession and use 19.3 seconds per possession themselves. Clemson, meanwhile, ranks 288th on defense in seconds per possession at 18 seconds.
Both of these teams are excellent with maintaining control of the ball as well. Clemson ranks 43rd in offensive turnover rate at 16.2%, while UVA sits sixth at 13.8%.
In addition, both fare well on the defensive glass. The Hoos hold opponents to a 24.8% offensive rebounding clip (36th), while the Tigers keep opponents to 24.5% (26th).
Now, one hang-up for an under in this game is the fact that each team can shoot efficiently from deep. Clemson is hitting 36.7% from 3 while yielding a 3-point percentage of 33.5% on defense. UVA drains 36.3% of its triples while giving up a 34.7% 3-point percentage.
That said, UVA shoots under 50% on 2s and holds opponents to 46.6% from 2-point range. Overall, each team maintains a defensive eFG% of around 48%, which should be indicative of this matchup.
The two have yet to play each other, but given how each can defend relatively well, this should go under the total. Don’t expect many second-chance points or fouls either.
Pick: Under 130.5 (Play to 129.5)
Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois
On the surface, this matchup between Buffalo and Northern Illinois may seem like an underwhelming clash between two middle-of-the-road MAC teams with little to play for.
However, I expect Northern Illinois to make this a highly-competitive game on its home floor.
The Huskies have been trending in the right direction, covering the spread in four of their last five and picking up a win over Central Michigan on the road Saturday. This uptick in performance can be shown in the Bayesian 30-Day Performance Ratings in which the Huskies rank second in the MAC behind only Toledo.
On the other side, Buffalo has been heading in the wrong direction. The Bulls are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five, losing four of those matchups outright.
Look for Northern Illinois to supplement its offense at the charity stripe. Buffalo has struggled to defend without fouling, allowing its opponents to score 20.2% of their points from the free-throw line. With a likely favorable whistle at home, this will be a significant advantage for Northern Illinois.
It will be important to monitor the status of Northern Illinois guard David Coit, who has missed the Huskies’ last three with an undisclosed injury.
Even with Coit potentially out of the lineup, there’s value in taking the points with a Northern Illinois team that has shown it still has some fight.
Pick: Northern Illinois +5 (Play to +4)
San Diego State vs. Boise State
This is a battle between the two best defenses in the Mountain West and two of the best in the entire country. The Broncos rank 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency, while San Diego State comes in at 12th, per KenPom.
Both of these defenses should be able to neutralize what the opposing offense wants to do. Boise State likes play inside out, as it runs post-up sets at one of the highest rates in the Mountain West and also are shoots 3-pointers on 37% of field goal attempts.
San Diego State ranks sixth in the Mountain West in defending post-up sets and held Boise to just six points in the post in their previous meeting. The Aztecs are also allowing just 28.6% from 3-point range in conference play and rank ninth in the country in Open 3-Point Rate Allowed, per ShotQuality.
San Diego State leads the Mountain West in adjusted offensive efficiency, but it’s a very high frequency midrange and isolation team. It’s shooting just 38% on midrange jumpers and puts up 0.96 PPP on isolation sets, so it’s not really effective in doing either.
The Aztecs are also second in the conference in offensive rebounding percentage, but Boise State has the 18th-best defensive rebounding percentage in the country.
Both of these teams play a below-average pace, sitting around 200th in adjusted tempo. I think this is going to turn into a defensive slugfest in the half-court, which is why I like under 134.5 points.
Pick: Under 134.5 (Play to 132.5)
How would you rate this article?
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.