NCAAB Odds, Picks for Duke vs North Carolina

NCAAB Odds, Picks for Duke vs North Carolina article feature image
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Pictured: North Carolina Tar Heels guard Caleb Love (2).(Photo by Chris Leduc/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Duke vs North Carolina Odds

Saturday, March 4
6:30 p.m. ET
ESPN
Duke Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+4
-110
142.5
-110o / -110u
+150
North Carolina Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-4
-110
142.5
-110o / -110u
-180
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

Chapel Hill will be rocking Saturday night as the North Carolina Tar Heels host the Duke Blue Devils. As if this rivalry couldn't gain anymore steam, the Tar Heels find themselves with their backs against the wall and are projected to miss the NCAA tournament.

Meanwhile, the Blue Devils will look to spoil Senior Night. If Duke leaves Chapel Hill with a victory, it will be very difficult for North Carolina to punch its ticket to the big dance — unless it makes a deep run in the ACC tournament. North Carolina has been playing good basketball lately and will look to extend its five-game winning streak.

It's always a treat watching these rivals clash and it seems like every matchup comes down to the wire. Will Duke continue to roll? Or will North Carolina respond in a tough spot? Let's breakdown both squads and uncover some betting value.


Duke Blue Devils

It seems like the Blue Devils figured something out during their matchup in Virginia on February 11th. After dropping that game in overtime, they haven't lost since. Everything seems to be clicking at the right time for Jon Scheyer's team and the Blue Devils have found themselves inching toward a No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Duke ranks inside the top-60 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which represents how balanced it has been all season. The Blue Devils are also sixth in offensive rebounding, which will play a factor against UNC big man Armando Bacot.

Duke has been playing lately, but I have a few concerns for this matchup. Per Shot Quality, the Blue Devils hold a -14.06 record-luck, which means some regression is looming. Duke is also a snail on offense, whereas North Carolina is blazing fast. If Duke has an off-night offensively — which is entirely possible against this solid UNC defense — it will have a hard time coming back from a large deficit.

Guard Jeremy Roach and forward Kyle Filipowski continue to be the glue for this Duke team. They will need to put forward good offensive performances if they want their team to come out of Chapel Hill with a victory.

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North Carolina Tar Heels

Hubert Davis' team will need to come out with an inspired effort if it wants to make its way back to the bubble. The Tar Heels will also be looking to avenge their loss at Duke last month, where they fell short in the final minute.

North Carolina is also a very balanced team, ranking inside the top-60 in both offense and defense. What's also impressive is their ability to limit turnovers and opponent offensive rebounding chances. The matchup between Bacot and Dereck Lively should be a huge edge for the Tar Heels, and their ability to limit second chances should be on display here.

I do have concerns in a few areas for the Tar Heels in this matchup. They still find themselves outside the top-300 in 3-point shooting%, which is surprising considering the terrific backcourt duo of Caleb Love and R.J Davis. Luckily for UNC, the Blue Devils also struggle from beyond the arc.

The Tar Heels will be at home and this crowd should fuel them throughout the evening. Their 15th rank in minutes continuity should also be a huge factor against this inexperienced Duke team.


Duke vs North Carolina Betting Pick

Simply put, I think this is a great spot for the Tar Heels. Duke has some regression coming and the fact that UNC gets to play this matchup at Chapel Hill is absolutely massive.

The Tar Heels need this win way more than the Blue Devils do, and I really think these teams are evenly matched on paper. The experience should also help the Tar Heels in this spot.

I expect North Carolina to gain new life heading into the ACC Tournament.

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