NCAAB Betting Guide for Oklahoma vs Baylor
John E. Moore III/Getty Images. Pictured: Milos Uzan
Oklahoma vs Baylor Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
The Big 12 takes center stage on Wednesday night as the Oklahoma Sooners take on the Baylor Bears. On paper, this appears to be a matchup of two teams trending in opposite directions.
Oklahoma has lost four of its last five, but the one victory sandwiched in between is a blowout over then-top-ranked Alabama. The Sooners have struggled mightily in conference play but came close to defeating Baylor just a few weeks ago.
Speaking of the Bears, they have really hit their stride of late. After dropping the first three Big 12 games, they are 7-1 over the last month. They are riding high into this matchup and should be sharp. But is their peak play enough to cover the number?
Let’s dive into this matchup to see if the Sooners can pick themselves up off the deck or if the Bears will keep rolling and how that factors into the betting markets.
To say the Sooners have struggled offensively of late may be putting it nicely. Aside from the big win over Alabama, Oklahoma has posted effective field goal percentages of 41.5, 40.2 and 35.2 in their last three conference games.
However, they may be overdue to get out of their shooting slump. The Sooners have been tremendous from the floor this season, as they are ninth in overall field goal percentage and 49th in 2-point percentage.
That 2-point percentage is worth highlighting as that’s where the Sooners will have the biggest edge. Baylor has been ravaged from close range, ranking 243rd in 2-point percentage allowed.
The two men that can exploit this edge on the inside are Tanner Groves and Jalen Hill. They have been deadly around the rim, each converting better than 70 percent of their attempts on close twos.
They also made their presence felt in the first meeting as they led the team in scoring, posting 17 and 16 points, respectively. If Baylor is overcommitted to them, expect Grant Sherfield to make them pay from beyond the arc.
We talked about Baylor’s hot streak over the past month, but what’s most impressive is it has done it without shooting the lights out. Aside from their last game, the Bears have only posted two games with an effective field goal percentage of over 55 percent since late November.
Much like their opposition, they will have one area of the floor where they will find great success, and that is the mid-range. The Sooners have allowed opponents to shoot 56 percent on close twos and 39 percent on farther twos.
The Bears have quite a few guys who can make them pay from inside the arc. Aside from the dynamic scorers like Adam Flagler or Keyonte George, Jalen Bridges and LJ Cryer are primed to make significant impacts.
Bridges is shooting 72 percent from inside the arc this year, and Cryer has drained opened jumpers, shooting 47 percent of far twos.
Oklahoma vs. Baylor Betting Pick
These two teams fought hard against one another in the first meeting, but with the Bears rolling and the Sooners overdue on the offensive end of the floor, this matchup will look very different.
Each team has clear significant edges when in possession, and exploiting them should only create other scoring chances. I’m taking the over here as Oklahoma will come to life and challenge Baylor here.
Pick: Over 140.5 or Better
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