Rutgers vs. Wisconsin Odds, Prediction: NCAAB Betting Guide
Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Klesmit (Wisconsin)
Rutgers vs. Wisconsin Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Rutgers looks to end its three-game losing streak when it heads on the road to take on Wisconsin.
The Scarlet Knights are starting to fall off a cliff. They’ve lost three straight games, which culminated in a horrible loss at home against lowly Nebraska.
To make matters worse, they’ve lost their starting power forward Mawot Mag for the season, which is a huge blow.
Rutgers was contending for second place in the Big Ten at one point, but now it looks like it’s going to finish in the bottom half of the conference.
Wisconsin beat Michigan on Tuesday, albeit by not making a field goal for the final 10:47 of the game.
The Badgers are sitting right on the bubble right now, so every win is important for their chances at earning an at-large bid. It starts Saturday against Rutgers.
Every element of Rutgers’ success starts at the defensive end of the floor.
The Scarlet Knights are the No. 3 team in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD), per KenPom.
The reason why Rutgers is so good is because it can defend all over the court. Rutgers is top-30 in 2-point and 3-point field goal percentage allowed. The Scarlet Knights also rank 18th in Division I in PPP allowed at the rim.
Additionally, Rutgers forces turnovers at the second-highest rate in the Big Ten, but that isn’t going to be a factor in this game, since Wisconsin hardly ever turns the ball.
Offensively, Rutgers wants to get the ball inside. It’s sixth in the country in finishing at the rim, but Wisconsin is top-40 in PPP allowed at the rim.
When you look at how Rutgers performs offensively when the ball gets further from the rim, it’s pretty bad. The Scarlet Knights are shooting just 30% from the mid-range and 32% from beyond the arc.
Wisconsin is also very good at defending in transition, while Rutgers is a top-60 frequency team.
Rutgers is also an elite offensive rebounding team, with Clifford Omoruyi leading the way. Omoruyi has the third-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the Big Ten.
But without Mag alongside him, it’s going to be difficult for Omoruyi to continue to put up those types of offensive rebounding numbers.
Oh my, Clifford Omoruyi. 😳@wizcliff77 x @RutgersMBB pic.twitter.com/6z8y5p9Epo
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) December 9, 2022
The Badgers’ offense is designed to play inside-out, as it has the second-highest post-up frequency in the country.
However, 40.9% of the Badgers’ shots come from behind the 3-point line, and they’re 137th in Open 3 Rate.
The Badgers hardly ever turn the ball over, as they have the third-lowest turnover percentage in the country.
The problem is they don’t crash the offensive boards (346th in offensive rebounding percentage), and they rarely get to the free-throw line (345th in free-throw rate). That means they’re very reliant on making jump shots.
They also don’t usually get great looks, ranking 305th in shot selection, per ShotQuality.
Defensively, Wisconsin has been very good, which is a staple of Greg Gard’s teams. The Badgers are 38th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, 16th in forcing teams into bad shot selection and are top-five in the Big Ten in PPP allowed in the half-court and in transition.
They also defend at the rim at a high level, ranking inside the top 50 in PPP. They should be able to shut down a short-handed Rutgers frontcourt.
Rutgers vs. Wisconsin Betting Pick
This is a good spot here for Wisconsin against a short-handed Rutgers frontcourt.
The loss of Mag has been huge on both ends of the floor for Rutgers, considering he was the Scarlet Knights’ second-best defensive rebounder and also had the highest field goal percentage from 2-point range on the team.
Wisconsin will be able to defend Rutgers at the rim and also won’t turn the ball over, which is a huge part of why Rutgers’ defense is so good.
So, I like the value on Wisconsin moneyline at -110.
Pick: Wisconsin Moneyline -110
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