Tennessee vs. Missouri Odds, Picks, Predictions: Value Lies on Total (Tuesday, February 22)
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- Tennessee travels to face Missouri in an SEC clash.
- The Vols should be able to get whatever they want offensively in this game against Missouri's shaky defense.
- That's why Charlie DiSturco has a certain pick that he's confident in.
Tennessee vs. Missouri Odds
-102o / -120u
-102o / -120u
Two teams trending in completely opposite directions meet up for an SEC showdown Tuesday night, as Tennessee heads down to Missouri to take on the Tigers.
Tennessee sits at third in the conference and has won eight of its last 10. The Vols most recently lost to Arkansas just four days after beating Kentucky at home.
Missouri is the complete opposite of Rick Barnes’ squad. The Tigers have lost eight of 10 and are a bottom-feeder in the SEC. They enter off of back-to-back losses to Mississippi State.
Can Mizzou play spoiler on its home floor and take down the Vols? Or will Tennessee continue its success en route to yet another NCAA Tournament bid in 2022?
While Tennessee doesn’t win pretty, it’s one of the peskiest teams in the NCAA.
This is a squad that has established itself as an elite defensive team, ranking fourth in adjusted efficiency and 11th in turnover rate, per KenPom.
We have seen that defensive intensity play a role in plenty of big wins, like Kentucky last week and Arizona to close non-conference play.
Zakai Zeigler has taken hold of the starting point guard role and has been fantastic for Rick Barnes in his freshman year. Zeigler is shooting 40% from beyond the arc in conference play and ranks first in the SEC in steal rate.
Tennessee has a top-40 offense in terms of adjusted efficiency, but it’s mediocre shooting the ball. The Vols enter Tuesday night with the worst 2-point percentage in SEC play.
The Vols’ offense normally goes as Santiago Vescovi goes. The leading scorer, Vescovi ranks fifth in TS% and third in 3-point shooting in conference play.
Kennedy Chandler has also supplanted himself as a solid option in his freshman year. He leads the team in both assists (4.8) and steals (2.3) per game.
Tennessee ranks inside the top-10 in assist rate, and that ball movement has helped the offensive success in wins. The Vols have broken the 70-point mark in six straight wins.
Missouri’s schedule has been incredibly difficult this season, but it doesn’t make up for its inefficiencies on both ends of the floor.
This is Cuonzo Martin’s worst-ranked team since taking over as head coach. The Tigers are the sixth-worst 3-point shooting team in the entire country and sit outside the top-300 in offensive turnover rate (21.1).
However, they have found success — at least on the offensive end — on their home floor. They score 68.6 points per game on 44.5% shooting at Mizzou Arena.
On the road? Their output drops to 60.1 points on 40.5% shooting.
When the Tigers are able to find success on the offensive end, it comes inside. Nearly 60% of all their points come on 2-point field goals, which is 18th in the country.
Kobe Brown is the do-it-all star of the offense. He leads the team in points (12.4), rebounds (7.9) and steals (1.3) per game. And the 6-foot-8 junior is second in assists, too (2.5).
Like its offense, Missouri is better defending inside than from 3. The Tigers allow opponents to shoot over 35% from beyond the arc, which is outside of the top-250 in the nation.
Tennessee vs. Missouri Betting Pick
While Missouri does play better on its home floor, this is by no means a favorable matchup for the Tigers.
Tennessee’s offensive success often comes from the 3 ball and battling on the glass for second-chance opportunities. And those are two of the biggest struggles for this Mizzou defense.
The Vols should be able to score with ease Tuesday night, and they’re coming off of a loss where they scored just 48 points against Arkansas. Even with Auburn coming up on Saturday, I expect Barnes’ squad to come out angry.
I don’t feel safe backing such a big spread, but I do think Missouri will also come ready to play on its home floor.
The total opened up at 127.5, and has already jumped up a couple of points. I think this total is too low in a game where I think Tennessee should get what it wants on the offensive end.
Back the over at Mizzou Arena in what should be an easy win for the Vols.
Pick: Over 129.5 (up to 131)
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