College Basketball Odds, Picks: Three Man Weave’s 3 Best Bets for Monday (Dec. 12)
Photo by Oliver McKenna/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Drew Timme (Gonzaga)
Monday’s college basketball slate doesn’t have many marquee games, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t betting value.
So, let’s dive into our top college basketball odds and picks for Monday.
Monday’s Three Man Weave College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Jim is targeting from Monday’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Sacred Heart vs. Stony Brook
By Jim Root
What’s better than starting your week by betting on a team with zero Division I wins? Nothing, I say!
Stony Brook has gotten off to an awful start to the year, going 0-7 against D-I foes and generally struggling to compete (just 2-5 against the spread).
Injuries have been a huge culprit behind those struggles, though. Potential key contributors Dean Noll and Sabry Philip were lost for the year before games even tipped off. And Aaron Clarke, arguably the Seawolves’ top newcomer, missed the first seven games of the year.
Clarke is back, though — and he means business. In two games, he has tallied 13 points, 4.5 assists and 1.5 steals per contest. That is despite playing just 22 minutes in each game as he gets healthier.
Now that he has been back for over a week, Clarke should enter the starting lineup and begin ramping up his workload.
On the other bench, Sacred Heart has had health issues of its own. Key transfers Aidan Carpenter and Brendan McGuire both suffered injuries early in the season, and while Carpenter has finally returned, McGuire is still out. Also, starting guard Mike Sixsmith recently joined him on the training table.
The key part of this handicap is the different trajectory of each roster’s health. From a matchup perspective, though, Sacred Heart cannot take advantage of Stony Brook’s biggest weakness.
The Seawolves play a hyper-compact defense, allowing the fourth-highest share of 3-point attempts in the country (KenPom). Sacred Heart is shooting just 28.9% from deep as a team.
Barring an aberrational shooting performance, the visiting Pioneers will struggle to open up Stony Brook’s defense.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Arizona State vs. Creighton
By Jim Root
Arizona State and Creighton meet in the Jack Jones Hoopfest, a neutral site event in Las Vegas. Creighton just played in the same arena a mere 48 hours ago, though the result — an 83-80 loss to BYU — did not breed positive memories.
That loss can at least partially be blamed on the absence of Ryan Kalkbrenner. The Bluejays’ towering center is a huge part of their strategy on both ends. He is an elite finisher in the paint, but more importantly, he is one of the country’s elite rim protectors.
Giving up 83 points to this version of BYU is a clear demonstration of Kalkbrenner’s value. In the two games prior, BYU scored 68 points against South Dakota and then 60 at home against Utah Valley.
On-off splits further underscore how much Kalkbrenner means. Per Hoop-Explorer.com, the Bluejays give up a stingy 89.9 points per 100 possessions when he is on the court. When he sits, that jumps to 100.0 per 100.
Freshman big man Fredrick King has plenty of upside, but he is not at Kalkbrenner’s level positionally, or able to verticality challenge opposing drivers like Kalkbrenner.
Both Creighton and Arizona State play fast enough to clear this number, as well. Both offenses rank in the top-110 nationally in possession length, indicating their desire to get quick shots. KenPom projects this game to have 70 possessions; I set that number closer to 73.
Obviously, much of this handicap relies on Kalkbrenner missing a second straight game. Though we do not know exactly what his non-COVID illness entails, I do not expect the big man to play.
Given his wild on-off splits, that might also warrant an Arizona State side play. I prefer the over, but both wagers should have some value if he is indeed out.
Northern Illinois vs. Gonzaga
By Jim Root
Gonzaga has not been the world-beater that many envisioned in the preseason. When Drew Timme and Julian Strawther bypassed the NBA draft for another year in Spokane, the Bulldogs vaulted to the top of many preseason rankings.
Of course, they are 7-3 and have played the country’s fifth-toughest schedule. That is not some disaster season.
Most importantly for this particular handicap, they have still shown the clear ability to blow out bad competition.
At this point in the year, Gonzaga has played more top 10 teams (three) than teams outside the KenPom top 100 (two). But in those two games against inferior competition, Gonzaga was up by 30 and 24 at halftime.
The Bulldogs put a 26-0 run on North Florida in the first half of their season opener and a 20-3 blitz against Portland State in the opening round of the Phil Knight Legacy tournament.
Northern Illinois is worse than both UNF and PSU. More alarmingly, the visiting Huskies are plenty willing to play up-tempo, ranking 51st nationally in KenPom’s Adjusted Tempo. All but one of their games have reached 71 possessions or more.
Running against this Gonzaga team is a terrifying proposition. Mark Few’s offense creates easy buckets in the open floor as well as any in the country. Timme will eat in the paint against an NIU frontline that lacks true size, and the Zags’ bevy of shooters will find open looks galore.
The more possessions this game has, the more obvious the gap in talent becomes.
After playing such an imposing gauntlet of foes, a home date with NIU is just what the doctor ordered for Gonzaga. The Bulldogs should take care of business from the opening tip, burying the visiting Huskies early.
Betting the first half also prevents any risk of Gonzaga taking its foot off the gas late in the game.