College Basketball Odds, Picks: Three Man Weave’s Best Bets for Friday (Dec. 16)
Photo by Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Cal Poly Mustangs
While we all await a loaded Saturday slate in college hoops, Matt Cox of Three Man Weave has three best bets for Friday night's slate.
Matt is diving into a Big East duel and two mid-major affairs — including a late-night matchup — to provide you with the best betting value.
So, dive in below and formulate your Friday college basketball card with the latest and best odds and picks.
Friday's Three Man Weave College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Matt is targeting from Friday's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
Xavier vs. Georgetown
By Matt Cox
Cover your eyes. We’re diving head first into the black hole of despair that is Georgetown basketball.
It’s no secret the Hoyas are still riding the struggle bus. Groans for Patrick Ewing’s job security grow louder by the day. The program intrigue is at all-time lows, prompting an embarrassing free ticket giveaway to incentive local patrons to come out and support.
That’s a tough backdrop for the conference opener, but it’s that dynamic — a start of a new season chapter — that should reinvigorate the flatlining Hoyas. They’ve also had a few extra days to rest and prepare for a dangerous Musketeers opponent.
Per TeamRankings.com, Ewing is 27-38 against the spread as a favorite since taking over in 2018, but 46-47 as an underdog. His teams may be discombobulated, but they typically compete wire-to-wire in big games.
Up front, the key will be neutralizing Xavier’s monstrous frontline. Long-armed Qudus Wahab and Akok Akok are lean, but they possess the size needed to keep the Musketeers from dominating the paint.
Ewing will also be keen on keeping Brandon Murray out of foul trouble, which doomed the Hoyas last time out. Murray is a pro-level talent and critical two-way asset, so his effectiveness will be paramount in this matchup.
Situationally, this is a great spot to back the Hoyas. Even with a deflated home court, the price is still a bargain down to +9.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Missouri State vs. Oral Roberts
By Matt Cox
Missouri State’s season is slowly spiraling.
In the wake of a banner season last year, head coach Dana Ford knew he had big shoes to fill this summer. A few remnants of last year’s core remain, but it’s largely a brand new roster cobbled together via the transfer portal.
A month into this experiment, it’s clear the Bears are broken. Local reports bemoan a disjointed offense, which is still adjusting to life without starting points guard Matthew Lee — a former Saint Peter’s transfer — thanks to an untimely injury.
Against Purdue Fort Wayne last Saturday, Missouri State hoisted a whopping 41 3s, only converting seven of those attempts. This high volume 3-point approach was not by design — rather, it was a last resort due to an ineptitude to create high-quality looks.
It’s unlikely Missouri State gets its house in order in the heart of finals week. It’ll have to overcome that, plus a red-hot Oral Roberts team riding high off Max Abmas’ milestone moment –Abmas hit the 2,000-point mark last game.
Unfortunately, sharp money pushed this line up early this morning. Given the diminished value on the full-game number — coupled with a short rotation on the ORU side (it employs a seven-man rotation) — we’re endorsing a first-half wager.
In essence, isolating this fade Missouri State angle to a first-half wager reduces the risk of a meaningless backdoor in the second half, and negates the depth concerns for Oral Roberts.
Weber State vs. Cal Poly
By Matt Cox
The betting markets are highly invested in tonight’s late-night tilt between Cal Poly and Weber State. A known betting group publicly released a play on Cal Poly at -4/-5 this morning, which immediately bumped the line to -5.5.
This move extracted part of the value on the Mustangs, but not all of it. There’s a glimmer of hope contrarians will move this number back down to -4, which would be a dream for those looking to back Poly.
One such piece of evidence: regression.
Per ShotQuality, Weber State is owed major shooting regression on both ends of the floor, especially on the defensive end. Head coach Eric Duft also believes he’s identified sustainable improvements on the defensive end, too.
However, this line still is overly rooted in preseason expectations of both teams. Based on current year performance only — removing all preseason priors from the equation — this line should be closer to -10.
Cal Poly is in a groove right now. The Mustangs just toyed with Washington in Seattle for nearly 30 minutes, before an angry run by the Huskies seized command late in the game. The six-point loss was still good enough to sustain a six-game cover streak.
After a bumpy start to the year, the Mustangs are a well-oiled machine right now.
Weber, on the other hand, is a team still searching for an identity on both sides of the ball. The primary focus is getting its ducks in a row for conference play, and tonight marks another opportunity to tinker with different rotations, lineups and schematic ploys.
This experimental nature of Weber’s maturity is another pocket of value on the Cal Poly side.