CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Kansas State-Kansas, 2 Other Monday Games
Kansas Jayhawks head coach Bill Self. Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are getting down on the three biggest college basketball games on Monday, headlined by Kansas State-Kansas (9 p.m. ET on ESPN).
- Sharps are also betting Notre Dame-Florida State (7 p.m. ET on ESPN) and Oklahoma-Iowa State (8 p.m. ET on ESPN2).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.
The college hoops gambling calendar is about to turn the page and enter warp speed.
Conference tournaments start a week from Monday, but wiseguys aren’t biding their time until the postseason — they’ll continue to get down on these late regular-season games in hopes of padding their bankroll for March Madness.
After analyzing Monday’s short 13-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games receiving sharp action from professional bettors that tip at 7 p.m., 8 p.m. and 9 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Notre Dame @ Florida State
7 p.m. ET | ESPN
Sharp angle: Notre Dame (moved from +12.5 to +11.5)
Casual bettors take one look at the won-loss records and that’s all they need to know.
Notre Dame is 13-14 while the 18th-ranked Florida State is 21-6. Plus, FSU is at home. Noles all day, big spread be damned.
This ACC matchup opened at FSU -12.5, and 70% of bets are laying the points as of writing (see live data here), yet the line has fallen away from FSU and toward the Irish (-12.5 to -11.5).
Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for public Noles backers to cash?
Using our Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, we noticed wiseguys steam ND at +12.5. We haven’t seen any conflicting plays or buyback on FSU.
Notre Dame is also in a profitable historical spot. According to our data at Bet Labs, big road conference dogs (+10.5 or more) that lost their previous game have produced more than +100 units won since 2005.
Oklahoma @ Iowa State
8 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Sharp angle: Oklahoma (moved from (+9 to +8)
This Big 12 showdown is garnering heavy action from both sharps and casual bettors. Typically, casually bettors will flock to home teams, favorites and teams with better records. But tonight seems to be the rare exception.
Iowa State (19-8) opened as a 9-point favorite on its home court. However, the Cyclones have lost three of their past four, while the Sooners (17-10) have won two straight. As a result, a slight majority of bets are taking the points and backing the Sooners.
Using our Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, we noticed sharps steam the Sooners as soon as the line opened. This overload of smart money forced oddsmakers to drop Oklahoma from +9 to +8.
The Sooners are getting only 61% of bets but 79% of dollars, which is further evidence of wiseguys in their favor — not just public bettors.
Kansas State @ Kansas
9 p.m. ET | ESPN
Sharp angle: Kansas (moved from -3.5 to -5)
This hugely important Big 12 showdown is by far the most heavily bet game of the night. Average Joes are leaning on the Jayhawks, but sharps are all in.
Kansas State (21-6, ranked 16th overall) beat Kansas 74-67 on its home court earlier this month. Kansas (20-7, ranked 15th overall) will look to pay back the favor tonight. The Jayhawks are also in a somewhat “buy low” spot as they’re coming off their worst loss of the season (91-62 to Texas Tech).
This line opened at Kansas -3.5. Currently 58% of bets are taking the Jayhawks, but they’re also getting nearly 70% of bets, indicating moderate public support but also clear smart money from respected players.
Goodfellas steamed Kansas early at -4. This influx of respected money pushed the Jayhawks up to -5 across the board.
It might be a steep price, but sharps seem to be okay with betting Kansas to win straight up (-200) as it fits the Bet Labs PRO system Moneyline Home Teams (66.5%, +109.36 units won since 2005).