CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting UNC Greensboro-Wofford, 2 Other Monday Games
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tray Hollowell (21)
- Wiseguys are getting down on three college basketball games on Monday, headlined by NC Greensboro-Wofford (7 p.m. ET on ESPN).
- Sharps are also betting Miami Ohio-Akron (8 p.m. ET on ESPN+) and Monmouth-Iona (9 p.m. ET on ESPN2).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.
We’re still a week away from the Big Dance, but for all intents and purposes, the Madness has begun. Conference tournaments are in full swing, and with public money flooding the market, sharps will look to take advantage of their increased contrarian edge, and also key in on neutral court totals, especially in short rest situations.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
NC Greensboro vs. Wofford
7 p.m. ET | ESPN
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 140.5 to 136)
We’ve seen steady action from pro and recreational bettors on this Southern Conference Tourney Final over/under, driving some of the biggest line movement on the board.
This total opened at 140.5. Currently, 61% of bets and 70% of dollars are taking the under, an indication that pros and Joes are united on a low scoring game. We also tracked a notable steam move on the under at 139.5.
This overload of money created liability for the books, forcing them to drop the total more than four full points in order to entice “over” betting so they could limit their risk.
Historically, unders have cashed bigly in conference tournament championship games. This is due to neutral courts, increased pressure and tired legs.
According to Bet Labs, when both teams played the day before and the total is 140 or less, the under has won at a 62.6% clip with a 20.2% ROI in conference tourney final games since 2005.
Miami Ohio @ Akron
8 p.m. ET | ESPN+
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 129 to 130.5)
Recreational bettors are always biased toward betting overs. Why? Because no one likes sweating an under. It’s much more fun rooting for points than hoping for blocked shots, bricks and shot clock violations.
However, every once in a while the public will favor an under, which provides unique value for sharps to take a contrarian over.
This MAC Tournament first round game is a perfect example.
Currently, 56% of bets are taking the under, but 86% of dollars are taking the over. This massive bet discrepancy indicates heavy smart money wagers banking on a high scoring game.
The total opened at 129. Sharps immediately hammered the over at 129 and then hit it again at 129.5, triggering a pair of steam and reverse line moves that moved the line up to 130.5. We haven’t seen a single conflicting play (or under buyback).
An added bonus for wiseguys sweating the over: the game is being played on Akron’s home court, so they don’t need to worry about the neutral court under trend. Also, both teams are well rested with three days off apiece.
Monmouth vs. Iona
9 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 144 to 138)
This MAAC tournament championship game is flying under the radar with the public, but not with wiseguys.
The total opened at 144. Currently, 66% of bets and 81% of dollars are coming in on the under. On the surface, this looks like both a public and sharp play. However, we’ve tracked only 747 total bets. Simply put, there aren’t any Average Joes getting down on this obscure total. So these bets are coming almost exclusively from pro players with an edge.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked three separate steam and reverse line moves on the under. Wiseguys hit the under at 144.5, 140.5 and 139. The fact that they kept hammering the under even though the total got worse indicates supreme Goodfella confidence.
This under also fits the the mold of a conference tournament championship game being played on a neutral court, and featuring tired legs on both sides.