CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Brown-Loyola Marymount, 2 Other Monday Games
Loyola Marymount Lions guard Jeffery McClendon (middle) steals the ball during the first half against the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are getting down on three college basketball games on Monday, headlined by Brown-Loyola Marymount (10 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also betting Texas Southern-UT Rio Grande Valley (8 p.m. ET) and Cal State Bakersfield-Southern Utah (8:30 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Wiseguys continued their torrid March Madness run yesterday, cashing all three Sunday plays (Iowa +8.5, Virginia Tech under 126, Virginia under 128). Unfortunately, sharps will have to wait until Thursday for NCAA Tournament matchups to return.
But Goodfellas aren’t taking the next few days off. Instead they’ll turn their attention to the other tournaments: NIT, CIT and CBI.
>> All odds as of 2:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college basketball odds and track your bets
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Texas Southern @ UT Rio Grande Valley
8 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (163 to 162.5)
This CIT showdown is flying completely under the radar. But not with the sharps.
This total opened at 163, which makes sense since Texas Southern scores a ton (80.4 PPG) and gives up a boatload (89 PPG). However, wiseguys aren’t falling into a “conventional wisdom” trap.
Currently 63% of bets and 69% of dollars are taking the under. On the surface, this looks like both a public and sharp play. However, we’ve tracked only 261 bets on this game. Simply put, these percentages are coming from wiseguys with an edge. There is no “public” betting this obscure under.
Cal State Bakersfield @ Southern Utah
8:30 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Over (145 t o 146.5)
One of the easiest ways to spot sharp action is comparing bets to dollars and then examining how the line moves.
This CIT over/under is a perfect example.
The total opened at 145. Currently 60% of bets are taking the under, but 74% of dollars are taking the over. Meanwhile, the total has risen to 146.5. Reading between the lines: the public is on the under but the sharps are taking the over. Smart money forced oddsmakers to adjust the total upward to entice more under betting so they can limit their risk.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked two steam and reverse line moves on the over, with Goodfellas crushing the Over 145 at twice. We haven’t seen a single conflicting under move (or buyback).
Brown @ Loyola Marymount
10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 137.5 to 138.5)
Sharps are squares are on completely opposite sides of this CBI over/under.
This total opened at a moderately low 137.5. Currently 61% of bets are taking the under. However, despite this heavy public under betting the total has actually risen one point to 138.5.
Why would the oddsmakers move the line up and give Average Joes an easier shot at covering?
Follow the money.
The over is getting only 39% of bets but 60% of dollars, indicating sharp money betting on a higher-scoring game. We also noticed wiseguys crush the Over 137.5 as soon as the line opened, triggering a market-wide steam move.
An added bonus for wiseguys sweating the over: Since 2005, the over has won at a 66.4% clip in the CBI first round or quarterfinal round when the total stays the same or rises.