Houston vs Oklahoma Odds, Prediction, Pick: Can Sooners Keep It Close?

As all the discussion across the country focused on the separation UConn and Purdue had made to establish themselves as title favorites, the Houston Cougars collectively put their heads down and got to work.

The Cougars caught Kansas' best effort of the year in Lawrence on February 3 and were soundly defeated. Houston's naysayers were given plenty of material on that night, but they've been awfully quiet lately.

Kelvin Sampson has since led his team to six straight wins to close out the month of February, firmly placing the Cougars in the driver's seat to win the Big 12 regular-season title in their first season in the league.

Let's take a look at the Houston Cougars vs. Oklahoma Sooners odds and make a pick in our college basketball betting preview for Saturday, March 2.

Bringing in LJ Cryer was a bit of a risk for Sampson. Houston's identity since Sampson took over in 2015 has been firmly established. The Cougars harass their opponents on the defensive end and never let them get comfortable.

At times, their best offense is crashing the offensive glass. Relying primarily upon dominating the glass hasn't been a sustainable offensive approach in the NCAA tournament thus far for Sampson.

Knowing he may need a potent scorer to win six consecutive games in the tournament, Sampson made the decision to take the chance on Cryer, despite his previous inability to showcase he could guard at an elite level.

It certainly appears Sampson is never quite satisfied if you watch him man the sidelines, but it would be hard to imagine he's been disappointed with the decision to integrate Cryer into his culture.

Cryer hasn't detracted from Houston's defensive standard in any way this year. In fact, the former Baylor Bear has more than held his own on a defense that now ranks as the most efficient unit in all of D-I hoops, per KenPom.

More importantly, Cryer provides scoring and an ability to stretch the opposing defense. And as the opponent has been forced to focus additional attention on Cryer on the perimeter, driving lanes and offensive rebounding opportunities have been much more available for his teammates.

After finishing last season under .500, significant improvements were needed if the Sooners hoped to return to relevance in their final Big 12 campaign.

Significant improvements, however, were not the expectation for Porter Moser's team in 2023-24.

Moser lost Grant Sherfield and Tanner Groves at the conclusion of last season. Both players provided some of the most positive contributions for Oklahoma in an overwhelmingly mediocre campaign.

Moser replaced their production in seemingly underwhelming fashion for a program of Oklahoma's caliber. Three of the Sooners' transfer additions came from Siena, Houston Christian and Utah Valley — not exactly moves that generate excitement within a program.

Oklahoma ignored any speculation as the year began. Moser has a proven track record of winning — even with a roster that may have less talent than the opposition.

Winning is just what his team did to open the season, as the Sooners rattled off 10 straight victories while climbing to No. 11 in the AP Poll prior to losing for the first time against North Carolina.

The 10 wins may not tell the full story, especially if you ask Jeff Capel and Brad Brownell. Both ACC head coaches — as well as many other representatives of the conference — seemed to think Oklahoma and other Big 12 teams purposefully scheduled weak non-conference opponents to inflate their metric rankings prior to beginning a difficult conference stretch.

Whether you agree with Capel and Brownell or not, Oklahoma sits safely inside the NCAA tournament bubble despite its 7-8 record in Big 12 play.

Oklahoma isn't quite an NCAA tournament lock yet, but a win over Houston would in all likelihood solidify an at-large bid for the Sooners.

After scoring only 45 points in 40 minutes in Hilton Coliseum earlier this week, Oklahoma won't get any sort of a reprieve in facing Houston's defense. Nonetheless, the spot is great to back Oklahoma in what should be its most motivated effort of the season thus far.

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It's always an uncomfortable feeling to fade Houston. Still, the Cougars simply don't cover every game they play in and have struggled on the road more frequently.

Oklahoma will assuredly go through some offensive droughts, even at home.

To cover or potentially even pick up a crucial victory, Oklahoma will need to be sure to never allow its defensive focus to lapse and to finish possessions with strong rebounding.

The Sooners don't have any individual scorers that will strike fear into the Houston defense. Still, I'll trust Oklahoma to cover at home by slowing the tempo and giving a defensive effort that shows they're the more desperate team.

Pick: Oklahoma +6.5 (Play to +5.5)

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