Illinois vs Michigan State Odds, Pick: Sparty Desperate?

The Illinois Fighting Illini have received a gift in the Big Ten standings as of late, as Wisconsin has gone on a bit of a losing streak. However, Purdue is still ahead of the Illini, so Brad Underwood's unit is desperate for a victory on the road in East Lansing, Michigan, against the Michigan State Spartans on Saturday.

MSU just dropped a game against Minnesota, which might not be as bad as previously predicted. Either way, this is a sorely-needed game for the Spartans as well, who are teetering on bubble territory.

As much as taking a fired up Michigan State team in this spot may make sense, it doesn't hold many edges over the Illini, except on defense.

The Illini shoot 3s more often than 2s and are hitting 33.9% from deep as a unit this season. The Spartans have a solid perimeter defense, holding opponents to 31.3% from outside. That said, they do allow 3-pointers constantly.

They still rank inside the top 70 in Open 3 Rate, though, so this should cut into what would otherwise be a sizeable advantage for the Illini. Michigan State doesn't shoot often from 3-point distance itself.

Illinois’ rebounding has been stellar all year, and it continues to be like that because it can crash from every position. Typically, the Illini hold a tremendous size advantage over most teams, since Justin Harmon is the only player under 6-foot-6 who gets more than 45% of the team’s playing time.

Michigan State is an average rebounding team this season. However, it did out-rebound the Illini in Champaign 37-34 the last time these two played each other.

Malik Hall and Mady Sissoko will be crucial ingredients to limiting second chances for Coleman Hawkins and the Illini.

Michigan State plays at one of the slowest tempos in basketball, using up at least 17.6 seconds per possession on each end of the floor. Illinois is much quicker, but it's about average on offense.

With MSU hosting, the pace could lean in the favor of the Illini.

MSU’s inability to adapt to modern basketball is mind-boggling, which is one of the main reasons I will likely stay away from taking it on the spread. The Spartans shoot the sixth-most mid-range shots in college basketball. They rank 311th in 3-point attempt rate on offense, which is significantly lower than Illinois.

Unless Tre Holloman, Jaden Akins or Tyson Walker are open on the perimeter, they won't take 3s. The Illini hold opponents to the eighth-lowest 3-point attempt rate defensively.

Illinois ranks in the top 60 in mid-range defense, so the Spartans will get some buckets, it just makes less sense to score one less point per make.

MSU doesn't turn the ball over as much as Illinois does, although Underwood’s group has been much better with limiting mistakes in conference play. If anything, Illinois will cough it up at times, but MSU will probably keep this game in a half-court setting for much of it.

Overall, Illinois and MSU rank outside the top 90 in Rim and 3 Rate, which just means neither takes many efficient shots.

Each should limit the other inside and out.

Illinois doesn't foul much, but with this game being at MSU, don't expect the Spartans to foul often, either.

The under should be in play in this game to 145.

Pick: Under 145.5 (Play to 145)