NCAAB Odds, Pick for Illinois vs Penn State: Big Ten Guide

The Illinois Fighting Illini head to Happy Valley to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in a Big Ten showdown Wednesday night.

Illinois has a chance at a share of the Big Ten title. Meanwhile, Penn State just dismissed its best player, Kanye Clary, from the program. Head coach Mike Rhoades did not provide any details, but it looks like Ace Baldwin Jr. will be the guy down the stretch for Penn State.

Given this team’s lack of identity when Clary is either not playing or on the bench, it's hard to back Penn State — even at home.

Illinois is an elite rebounding team and can do so from every position. At 6-foot-4, Justin Harmon is its smallest rotational player. Otherwise, the length in this lineup can overwhelm opponents.

The Illini have eight players averaging at least three rebounds per game and rank in the top 60 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. Penn State, meanwhile, ranks 271st offensively and 325th defensively. Look for the Illini to control the rebounding margin and manufacture putback opportunities at will.

The Illini also shoot more 3s than 2s. Penn State is reasonably good at guarding the perimeter, but the Nittany Lions rank 285th in Defensive Open-3 Rate. This means they may have received some luck defensively even though they're holding opponents to less than 31% from deep.

The Illini are shooting over 35% from outside, so look for them to take advantage of a short bench for the Nittany Lions.

Additionally, Illinois is efficient at the rim and in transition. The Illini are shooting over 54% from 2-point range. Penn State ranks horribly in both transition defense and defense at the rim.

Well, Terrence Shannon Jr. is one of the best in college hoops at getting out in transition and at least drawing a foul, which will cause problems for the Penn State defense.

Now, Penn State also likes to shoot from 3-point land. It may be hitting only about 33% from outside, but then again, Clary was the best shooter on the team.

Sure, Baldwin and D’Marco Dunn shoot over 33% from outside, but no one else does. In fact, against a relatively weak Nebraska 3-point defense, Penn State shot 5-for-23 from long range.

Sure, Illinois has struggled to guard the perimeter at times in conference play, but the Illini greatly limit a team’s ability to even launch 3s. Penn State will need to knock down the deep ball whenever it gets a chance because it may not happen very often.

The Nittany Lions can get out in transition and force turnovers. They have done so throughout the season with a defensive turnover rate in the top 25.

However, Illinois ranks in the top three in offensive turnover rate in Big Ten play. The Illini may still lose the turnover battle because they don't force many mistakes defensively, but it shouldn't be significant.

Lastly, Penn State tends to rack up fouls quickly, even at home. The Nittany Lions get to the free-throw line more often than average, but this issue could boost an Illinois team that ranks third in the conference in free-throw attempt rate in Big Ten play.

Look for the Illini to cut into this advantage, especially in transition.

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A Clary-less Penn State team loses a lot of its offensive capabilities. The Nittany Lions lost their leading scorer and a key 3-point threat.

Given that Penn State still looks a bit lost when Clary isn't in the game, it's hard to back this team.

Plus, Illinois is 7-2 against the spread on the road this season. Look for the Illini to continue their march toward a potential Big Ten title, and take them to -8.

Pick: Illinois -6.5 (Play to -8)