NCAAB Odds, Pick for Iowa State vs VCU

Below, we have Iowa State vs VCU odds and a pick, including an NCAAB betting guide for Thursday, Nov. 23.

The ESPN Events Invitational tips off on Thursday with an interesting field, and the Iowa State Cyclones and VCU Rams match up in the first round.

VCU has played a pretty solid schedule thus far, even if its opponents seem unrecognizable to the casual college basketball fan. The Rams dropped their first game to McNeese State but defeated Samford, Radford and Seattle in their next three.

All four of these teams could win their respective conference tournaments and hear their names called on Selection Sunday.

Meanwhile, Iowa State has taken care of business and trounced some pretty poor competition. VCU will be the Clones' first test.

Iowa State should win this game, but the opening line gives a little too much credit to the Cyclones. Look for the Rams to keep this one tighter, as it will be a defensive-focused matchup.

Iowa State put together a mix of returning players and newcomers. The noteworthy transfers are Curtis Jones (Buffalo) and Keshon Gilbert (UNLV) while Milan Momcilovic is seeing the most time as a freshman.

With T.J. Otzelberger leading the charge, this team looks similar to last year’s squad. Iowa State ranks fourth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 50th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, per KenPom.

Yes, it's only turning the ball over 12.7% of the time and owns a 58.9% Effective Field Goal Percentage, but its competition, as stated above, has been weak.

One area where the Clones have excelled is on the glass. As of now, they rank sixth in defensive rebounding and 22nd in offensive rebounding.

VCU struggles in this regard, ranking 180th in offensive rebounding and 202nd in defensive rebounding. Christian Fermin and Michael Belle will loom large in this game in order to help negate this steep edge for the Rams.

The Cyclones also turn opponents over at an exceptional rate, dating back a few years. They rank first in defensive turnover rate going into this game. They ranked second last season.

VCU has issues with turnovers, as it ranks 320th in offensive turnover rate. The backcourt, especially, could have some issues with Jones, Tamin Lipsey and others.

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The Rams rank 272nd in Adjusted Tempo this season. They're averaging 17.2 seconds per possession on offense and 18.3 seconds per possession on defense.

Even if they have issues with protecting the ball, they rank 16th in points per possession in transition, per Shot Quality. This should give them a fighting chance, as Iowa State ranks 52nd in points per possession offensively in transition. VCU should have the edge here and should make stops after a turnover.

Iowa State also has already manufactured 58.6% of its points inside the arc, and VCU can defend 2s. The Rams have held opponents to 40.3% on 2-pointers this season. Adding on, the Rams rank 48th in defense at the rim, per Shot Quality.

Finally, even if Iowa State shoots the 3 on occasion, VCU ranks 58th in Open 3 Rate defensively. Iowa State ranks 44th. These numbers are nearly neck-and-neck, but given how few 3s the Cyclones take, this could work in the Rams’ favor.

VCU has played stiffer competition in the early going.

Iowa State should win this matchup because of overall defense and rebounding. VCU will turn the ball over, but it has the defense to at least keep up with the Cyclones.

With that being the case, VCU can be played from +9.5 to +9.

Pick: VCU +9.5 (Play to +9)

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