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Iowa State-Kansas State Betting Preview: Wade Injury Swings Spread in Big 12 Tournament

Mar 15, 2019 6:05 PM EDT
Credit:

William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Iowa State bench

Kansas State (25-7, 14-4) earned the No. 1 seed in the Big 12 tournament and knocked off No. 8 TCU in the quarterfinals on Thursday. But that hasn’t stopped bettors from fading the Wildcats in the semifinals.

Immediately after opening as a 1.5-point favorite over No. 5 seed Iowa State (21-11, 9-9) for their semifinals matchup tonight, the line immediately swung towards the Cyclones, shifting by as many as four points at some books.

Kansas State forward Dean Wade — its second-leading scorer at 12.9 points per game — is expected to miss the rest of the conference tournament because of a nagging foot injury. His status for March Madness is up in the air, too.

Bettors are apparently concerned by Wade’s absence given its already-inconsistent offense, but is that where the value sits for this matchup? Let’s break it down.

Betting Odds: Iowa State Cyclones vs. Kansas State Wildcats

  • Spread: Iowa State -2
  • Over/Under: 130
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN2

>> All odds as of Friday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time CBB odds and live win probabilities on your bets.


The Wildcats (19-13 against the spread) have covered in three consecutive games while the Cyclones (17-15 ATS) snapped their three-game losing skid ATS with a 17-point victory over No. 4 seed Baylor on Thursday.

These programs split their two regular season meetings — both straight-up and ATS. Iowa State got the best of Kansas State on Feb. 14, shooting 58.3% from behind the arc. Bruce Weber’s crew had no answer for 6-foot-4 freshman Talen Horton-Tucker, who went off for 20 points with six 3-pointers.

Although the Wildcats allowed the third-lowest 3-point shooting percentage (33.8%) in Big 12 play, they’re still letting up the fourth-highest scoring rate (36.1%) from that department.

Expect the Cyclones’ 64th-ranked 3-point clip (36.8%) to give K-State issues from that vicinity once again, especially without Wade’s size and presence to disrupt their 3-point arsenal.

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