NCAAB Odds, Pick for Kansas vs Iowa State

The Kansas Jayhawks have struggled immensely when they have to travel. Their only two wins were over Indiana in the final minutes of the game and over Oklahoma State a couple of weeks ago.

Kansas' opponent Saturday on the road will be the Iowa State Cyclones. Iowa State is yet to drop a game at home this season, a testament to how stingy its top-five defense is. That should help create an awful matchup for Kansas in this Big 12 battle.

The Jayhawks do not shoot many 3s. In fact, they rank in the bottom 50 of the NCAA in 3-point attempt rate, even though they shoot a collective 36.7% from beyond the arc. Defending the perimeter is one of the only issues for the Cyclones defensively, in that they yield a plethora of 3s while allowing opponents to shoot about 33% from outside.

Kansas also ranks 133rd in Open 3 Rate, per ShotQuality, while Iowa State ranks 212th defensively. Simply put, the Jayhawks’ style of play will not exploit a glaring issue within Iowa State’s defense.

Kansas also has a difficult time with not turning the ball over on offense. Meanwhile, Iowa State is the best team in the country at forcing turnovers. The Kansas backcourt will have issues with Tamin Lipsey, Keshon Gilbert and Curtis Jones.

The Jayhawks also have a difficult time crashing the boards against some teams. Iowa State knows how to rebound on both offense and defense, while Kansas — outside of Hunter Dickinson — can struggle in that regard. Look for the Cyclones to win the rebounding battle and produce put-back opportunities.

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Iowa State is the worse offensive team in this matchup, but it can get to the free-throw line much more often than Kansas. This helps on a team’s home court. Per KenPom, the Cyclones rank seventh in home-court advantage at nearly 4.1 points. Again, look for Gilbert and Lipsey to attack and get to the charity stripe.

Kansas’s interior defense can be a bit soft at times. The Jayhawks rank 103rd in points per possession at the rim, per Shot Quality. Iowa State should be able to score inside against this Kansas defense.

But similar to the Jayhawks, the Cyclones do not take many 3-pointers. They do play at a quick pace, which could direct some bettors to avoid the Under, but they are still hitting nearly 35% as a unit from outside anyways. Even if Kansas hits some threes against Iowa State’s porous perimeter defense, the Cyclones should be able to hang tight.

In almost every facet of this game, Iowa State’s aggressiveness should reign supreme. The Cyclones should continue their run at home, while Kansas continues to scrap for a chance at a victory on the road.

Kansas should lose the turnover and rebounding battles, which are crucial ingredients to Iowa State's success.

Take the Cyclones in this one all the way to -6. The better defense will come out on top at home.

Pick: Iowa State -2.5 (Play to -6)

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