Kentucky vs South Carolina Odds, Pick for Tuesday

The Kentucky Wildcats boast one of the most impressive offenses in the country. What they lack in defensive wherewithal, they make up with strong shooting. The Wildcats hit the road to take on the South Carolina Gamecocks on Tuesday. The Gamecocks are coming off of a nice win at Arkansas, but haven't displayed much in terms of beating top-50 KenPom teams.

With the offensive edge, even on the road, the Wildcats should win by multiple possessions.

Kentucky ranks fourth overall in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Wildcats can score inside, outside and at the free-throw line. The Wildcats are shooting 40.2% from deep and 56.7% from inside the arc. South Carolina is yielding an opponent’s 3-point percentage of 33%. Sure, the Gamecocks don't give up many 3-point attempts as a whole, but they are particularly weak in defending catch-and-shoot 3s, where Kentucky thrives.

Additionally, Kentucky rarely turns the ball over and should have an edge over a mistake-ridden Gamecocks’ team. The Wildcats don't force many turnovers, but they do force them more often than the Gamecocks.

The Wildcats can also dictate the pace and rank in the top-10 in Adjusted Tempo, per KenPom. Meanwhile, South Carolina is one of the slowest-paced teams in the country. That said, the Gamecocks do have a tendency to speed up on defense. If the game is played at the Wildcats’ preferred speed, it could interfere with the Gamecocks’ brand of basketball.

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South Carolina is more well-rounded, but the Gamecocks are almost equal to Kentucky in terms of defensive efficiency.

The Gamecocks could make up points by crashing the glass. South Carolina is strong on the offensive glass, but Kentucky is slightly better on the defensive end.

South Carolina takes more 3s than the Wildcats, percentage-wise. Kentucky allows opponents to take 3s often, but opponents are shooting just 31.3% against the Wildcats. These teams are comparable when it comes to Open 3 Rate, so Kentucky should keep the Gamecocks in check from 3.

One way to make up points or to maintain an offensive edge against the Wildcats is to get to the free-throw line. Neither team gets to the line all too often, though each team tends to foul a lot.

The main discrepancy between these teams is Kentucky’s dominant play on the offensive end. Sure, South Carolina can make the NCAA Tournament and is well-rounded, but the Gamecocks haven't proven that they can beat the best. Look for Kentucky to change the narrative about ranked opponents not covering on the road. Bet the Wildcats to -5.

Pick: Kentucky -4 (Play to -5)