NCAA Tournament Best Bets for Sunday Evening

The Second Round of the NCAA Tournament closes out with five matchups after 6 p.m. ET, including two No. 1 seeds — UConn and Houston — in action.

Here's March Madness best bets, including three picks and predictions for Sunday evening's NCAAB games on March 24.

NCAA Tournament Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By D.J. James

The Northwestern Wildcats have battled massive injuries this season. With Matthew Nicholson — along with Ty Berry — being out in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament, the Cats showed why they were a top-four team in the Big Ten.

Now, the Wildcats take on the UConn Huskies, who are favored as if they’re playing a mid-major opponent.

Northwestern went 18-13-1 against the spread this season, and the Wildcats will have a chip on their shoulder against the Huskies.

NU is one of the best — if not the best — 3-point shooting team left in the field.

The Wildcats hit over 39% from deep, while UConn will struggle at times, yielding a 31.4% 3-point rate to its opponents. UConn also ranks 114th in Open-3 Rate defensively.

Ryan Langborg and Brooks Barnhizer are crucial for Northwestern. Everyone knows Boo Buie is the guy, but Northwestern’s second- and third-best players always need to succeed if it wants to have success.

Northwestern also turns opponents over often and rarely turns the ball over itself (seventh offensively). FAU had 21 turnovers in the game against NU, so this could be an area where the Cats can earn margin.

Northwestern will have some trouble on the glass because the depth of its frontcourt is concerning. NU’s guards can match UConn’s, but Donovan Clingan should grab whatever he wants in the rebounding department.

Nick Martinelli, Luke Hunger and Barnhizer are crucial in this regard. NU is going to lose the rebounding battle, but limiting putback opportunities for UConn is a key ingredient for a cover.

Go with the undervalued Wildcats here. UConn should win, but this can be taken to +12.

Pick: Northwestern +14.5 (Play to +12)

By Tanner McGrath

I’m telling you — Texas A&M is the team Houston didn’t want to see on its potential title run.

These two met in the non-conference season. While Houston won, it was far from a cakewalk.

The Coogs won by four but needed an 11-for-27 (41%) 3-point shooting performance to get there, and the Aggies didn’t have Tyrece Radford.

Radford is a massive part of the Aggies’ isolation-heavy offense, and running isolation sets is an excellent way to beat Houston’s ball-screen blitz defense.

The Cougars will send two to the ball-handler on every on-ball screen, forcing turnovers with on-ball pressure while jumping passing lanes on weak-side rotations. But with Radford in the fold, the Aggies can attack Houston one-on-one, avoiding the blitz altogether.

Additionally, the Cougars’ nation-leading defense is vulnerable in two areas.

The aggressive nature of the ball-screen blitz leaves the boards open for offensive rebounds while fouling often.

Texas A&M feeds on both those vulnerabilities, ranking first nationally in offensive rebounding rate and top-50 in free-throw rate.

So, predictably, in the first matchup, the Aggies generated 21 second-chance points on 17 offensive rebounds and 15 points on 22 free-throw attempts.

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And since Radford got healthy, Houston’s Joseph Tugler and Ramon Walker Jr. have suffered season-ending injuries, significantly hindering the Cougars’ depth.

I think the Aggies can keep it close on secondary scoring alone, but the key to pulling off the outright upset is on the perimeter.

Texas A&M generated a good amount of decent jumpers this season, but the Aggies missed every shot. They shot 29% from 3 on the year, but ShotQuality projected that number closer to 33% based on the “quality” of attempts.

I believe the Aggies are in the middle of a positive regression avalanche.

They’re shooting 42% from 3 since March 6, winning five of their six games during the stretch, including an SEC Tournament win over Kentucky and an NCAA Tournament win over Nebraska.

Perimeter shooting is always important against Houston, as the Cougars’ ball-screen blitz defense is vulnerable to crisp passing and weak-side spot-up shooting. When a team sends two to the ball-handler, the rest of the defense has to rotate.

I truly believe that Texas A&M will win this game if it hits those weak-side 3s.

But, at a minimum, Wade Taylor IV, Radford and company will create enough isolation and second-chance buckets to keep the game close for 40 minutes.

Meanwhile, Houston runs a “chuck-it-and-go-get-it” offense, leveraging Jamal Shead in ball screens while grabbing every second-chance point available on the offensive glass off every miss.

But Texas A&M has a rock-solid ball-screen coverage defense (top-50 nationally in pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP allowed, .69) that cleans up everything on the boards, leading the SEC in defensive rebounding rate at 72.8%.

If Houston wants to win — or cover a 10-point spread — against Texas A&M, the Coogs will need to shoot 40% from 3 again and find a way to defend Radford in isolation without Tugler.

Meanwhile, Texas A&M is a buzzsaw when hitting shots, and the Aggies are finally doing that.

Pick: Texas A&M +9.5 (Play to +9)

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By Matt Gannon

Yale did enough to miraculously come back and defeat Auburn in the round of 64. After being down by 10 with just under eight minutes to go, the Bulldogs shot their way into an upset.

I’m expecting some regression tonight.

Yale shot 45% from 3 in that game, which is far better than its season average. The Bulldogs ranked 130th nationally in 3-point shooting, which isn't good for the matchup with San Diego State for a few reasons.

The Aztecs pride themselves on defense and are especially solid at defending the 3. San Diego State ranks 28th nationally in 3-point defense.

I expect SDSU to really limit Yale's offensive looks from deep and force the Bulldogs to win on the inside.

Auburn is one of the most physical teams in the nation, but it truly got soft down the stretch. Meanwhile, San Diego State is a team that will be extremely relentless on both sides of the ball.

Look for the Aztecs to do their offensive work in the paint. They love to get the ball inside, and that should work well with a size advantage against Yale.

Jaedon LeDee scored 32 points in the first-round matchup with UAB, and he could do it again tonight.

Pick: San Diego State -5.5 (Play to -7)