College Basketball Odds, Pick for Maryland vs Michigan State

The Michigan State Spartans staged a nice second-half comeback to knock off Michigan on Tuesday, but will face much stiffer competition on Saturday against the Maryland Terrapins.

Yes, the Terps dropped close games to Northwestern and Michigan State, but since January 11, they look to be about where they should have been all season.

The Terps haven't been great on offense, but they do get to the free-throw line quite frequently. This has been at the behest of Julian Reese, Jahmir Young and DeShawn Harris-Smith.

The latter two shoot over 80%, but Reese has had his struggles. Even still, he's taken 155 free throws and should find himself at the line often in this matchup because MSU fouls a lot.

Maryland could also exploit MSU’s occasional problems with defending the rim. Per ShotQuality, the Spartans rank 90th in points per possession at the rim on defense. Maryland may not be the most efficient offense, but it constantly defaults to a Reese post-up when in need of a quick bucket.

MSU ranks 139th in points per possession on post-ups defensively, so Reese may be in for a big game.

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On the other end of the court, Michigan State shoots way too many mid-range jumpers. In fact, the Spartans rank eighth in the nation in mid-range frequency.

Maryland is shockingly good at defending mid-range shots (5th), per ShotQuality. That doesn't bode well for the Spartans and is one of the reasons why the first matchup between these teams was a one-possession game.

MSU also rarely takes 3s, despite shooting almost 37% from deep. The primary deep threats for Tom Izzo’s team have been Jaden Akins, Tre Holloman and Tyson Walker.

The Terps are allowing opponents to shoot around 34% from 3, but are particularly good at forcing teams inside the arc, which is where MSU resides most of the time anyways. Essentially, MSU will be playing into the teeth of the Maryland defense, which is limiting opponents to 43% shooting on 2-pointers.

Lastly, Michigan State has been awful at rebounding this season. Sure, Mady Sissoko and Carson Cooper are decent rebounders, but they aren't typically on the floor.

Meanwhile, Jordan Geronimo and Reese are good on the glass, especially on the offensive end. The Terrapins should have plenty of opportunities to get put-back buckets.

Maryland started the season slow, but it's made significant strides and could be on the right side of the bubble in the coming weeks.

This game will be paramount to that goal.

Michigan State has trouble guarding post ups and on the glass. Meanwhile, Maryland will be able to defend Michigan State's mid-range shots.

All of that should lead to a Maryland cover. Take the Terps to +5.5.

Pick: Maryland +6.5 (Play to +5.5)