Minnesota vs Illinois Pick & Prediction: Back the ‘Dog

Illinois will take on one of the best ATS teams in the country on Wednesday in the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The Gophers have been a gambler’s paradise this season, covering the spread in 23 of 27 games.

Yes, their offense should take a backseat to Illinois’, which is a top-10 KenPom unit, but the Gophers can keep this tighter than the market expects, even on the road.

Minnesota is an efficient outside shooting team, hitting almost 36% of its shots from 3-point range. The Golden Gophers tend to shoot more 3s than 2s. The Illini have proven to have gaps when it comes to defending outside shots. Yes, Illinois does a good job limiting 3-point chances, but opponents are still shooting 32.4% on 3s against the Illini. Per Shot Quality, the Illini also rank 73rd in Open 3 Rate. As a result, Minnesota should hit some deep shots on Wednesday.

This season, Illinois does not turn many teams over. This could be a result of the five-man switch defense Brad Underwood holds dearly to his heart, but Illinois would benefit from manufacturing points off turnovers occasionally. Minnesota does turn the ball over quite frequently, but that may not be an issue for the Gophers in this one.

Minnesota ranks No. 1 in points per possession on cuts, per Shot Quality. The Illini rank lower than 260th at defending the cut. All of the Illini's defensive switching could be a problem because of how quickly the Gophers run their offense. Look for Minnesota to manufacture buckets downhill, too.

Illinois is a team that is extremely efficient in transition. However, Minnesota is more than comparable. In fact, the Gophers rank a bit better offensively in transition than Illinois. Thus, this may end up being a wash, even though the Illini have an All-American talent in Terrence Shannon who can get out in transition by himself.

Illinois does hold the advantage on the glass in this game. The Illini rank within the top 55 defensively in rebounding and within the top 20 offensively. Minnesota is not even close to either of those numbers, so this is an area where Illinois could frustrate the Gophers.

The Illini attempt a solid number of 3s, too, and they are shooting almost 35% as a team. Minnesota is similar to Illinois in that it limits 3-point opportunities but allows opponents to shoot relatively well. This is another area that can likely be chalked up as a wash, or perhaps a slight edge to the Illini.

Overall, Illinois’ offense is efficient, and the Illini shoot well from inside the arc. Minnesota may allow teams to shoot fairly well from the outside, but the Gophers are still holding opponents to less than 47% on 2-pointers. Lastly, both teams rank within the top 35 in defensive rim and 3-point rate. Simply put, more often than not, Minnesota can match Illinois defensively.

Illinois may have some trouble guarding the Minnesota offense off of cuts and beyond the arc. The Illini should come away with the victory, but there are gaps on the defensive end that can be exploited. Minnesota is good at beating the market, and although this game is on the road, the Gophers should do so again here. Take them at anything better than +9.

Pick: Minnesota +11.5 (Play to +9)