NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bets: 2 Picks for Friday’s Late Games, Including Michael Ertel & Gabe Brown
Justin Casterline/Getty Images. Pictured: Gabe Brown.
It’s been a fun day of March Madness, but it’s not over yet.
With plenty of games coming up on Friday night, our college basketball staff broke down two of their favorite player props: one for UAB’s Michael Ertel and Michigan State’s Gabe Brown.
Below, we’ll use the Action Labs Player Prop Tool to compare our NCAAB projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks.
Check out both of our top player props below. And when the second round comes around Saturday, remember to stop back again — because we’ll be ready to serve up even more player props.
By Doug Ziefel
Ertel enters this first-round matchup with a hot hand in the month of March. He has scored 15 or more points in his last five games, but none of those were against a defense like he’ll face in this one.
The Houston Cougars are one of the best defensive teams in the nation. They rank 11th in defensive efficiency, but more importantly, they’re third in effective field goal percentage allowed.
Not only will this matchup be the toughest of the season for Ertel, but he’s due for regression here. First, He averages only 10.3 points per game on the season, and prior to his recent hot streak, he topped 13 points in only four games.
Lastly, Ertel is not a high-usage player; in fact, he’s fourth on the Blazers in possession percentage.
Our Action Labs projections have Ertel slated for 10.9 points. That’s a 15.5% edge on the current number.
Pick: Michael Ertel Under 13.5 Points
This line feels a bit low for a player who shoots 37% from 3 and has scored in double digits in his six of his last seven.
That’s especially true considering Sparty will have to score in bunches to keep up with Davidson. The Wildcats are one of the best offenses in the nation, scoring 75 PPG with the 11th-highest efficiency nationally.
Davidson also allows a lot of 3s, ranking 333rd nationally in opponent 3-point rate. So, Brown should get his opportunities in this one.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Brown for 11.8 points today, giving us a 12% edge over the current line. I’d play it at 10 (-110) or better.
Pick: Gabe Brown Over 9.5 Points