NCAAB Best Bets for Saturday Evening’s Conference Tournament Games

While regular season matchups — especially UNC vs. Duke — take center stage today, we still have plenty of mid-to-low major conference tournament action to bet on.

Here's NCAAB best bets and odds, including expert picks for Saturday evening's conference tournament games on March 9.

College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By Doug Ziefel

The Stony Brook Seawolves are poised to complete a three-game series sweep over the Northeastern Huskies this evening. Stony took each of the regular-season meetings, and now it catches Northeastern again after stumbling into the CAA tournament.

This game may be lined tight, but the truth is that the Seawolves are the superior team on both ends of the floor. They ranked fifth in the CAA in both Offensive and Defensive Adjusted Efficiency, while the Huskies ranked 11th and ninth, respectively.

However, the biggest edge for Stony Brook comes on the defensive end. It'll be able to contain a slow-moving Northeastern offense. The Wolves ranked fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed in the CAA, and that stems from ranking inside the top four in 3-point and 2-point percentage allowed.

On the other end of the floor, they should get the job done as well. Northeastern ranked 12th in the conference in effective field goal percentage allowed, and it’s struggled to defend the perimeter, in particular.

While it's not exactly their style, the Seawolves should be on the right end of some extended runs in this matchup if they can hit some 3s.

Pick: Stony Brook ML -114 (Play to -140)

By Matt Cox

On the surface, this feels like two under machines pinned against each other in the opening round of the Big Sky tournament.

However, Sacramento State head coach David Patrick is removing the governor on the Hornets’ pace.

Sac State has hovered in the bottom 10 in Adjusted Tempo all year long, bogged down by an overly meticulous half-court offense.

Eventually, Patrick got tired of losing and loosened up the screws on his offensive identity. The result? Two victories and a near upset of Eastern Washington in the regular-season finale.

All three games saw the Hornets eclipse 70 possessions, a pace hurdle they hadn’t cleared since early December.

Idaho, meanwhile, may be offensively challenged itself, but the recent return of D'Angelo Minnis and Tyler Linhardt lengthens the Vandals' bench with two dynamic offensive contributors.

The Vandals will need to crack 60 to push this one over the total, but this matchup looks more appealing than their last three opponents — Montana State, Montana and Portland State — given the relative dip in athleticism.

Ignore the regular-season meetings between these two. The Hornets and Vandals are newly renovated, retooled reclamation projects trending toward the over side of the totals ledger.

Pick: Over 127.5 (Play to 128)

By Scott Schaeffer

Bob Richey and the Paladins finally broke through last season, advancing to the NCAA tournament via a SoCon Tournament Championship after a heartbreaking loss to Chattanooga at the buzzer in 2022. Furman then ultimately paid off last year’s run with a crazy first-round win over Virginia.

Furman’s 2023-24 season hasn’t gone quite as smoothly.

The ‘Dins are now in the unfamiliar position of being the lower seed in the quarterfinal of the SoCon tourney due to an underwhelming 10-8 record in conference play.

The Paladins have struggled to replace the production of Jalen Slawson and Mike Bothwell this year, but they still have a veteran, high-octane offensive backcourt.

JP Pegues and Marcus Foster were the key returnees who gave the Furman fan base a bit of faith that they could maintain the success they enjoyed last season.

Pegues was actually the player who hit the late dagger against Virginia and now leads the Paladins in scoring this year. Richey isn’t afraid to simply run a high ball screen for Pegues in crucial late-game situations and let JP create for himself in those moments.

Great playmakers in the backcourt are always a great X-factor in tournament settings. Despite a disappointing regular season, all can be forgotten should Pegues and Foster post three consecutive victories and win a SoCon tourney title.

In addition to Pegues and Foster, Alex Williams and PJay Smith Jr. — a transfer from little-known Lee University — provide additional backcourt depth for Richey.

It’s a little scary to back Furman in this spot, despite its proven success in this format. Western Carolina has an extremely capable counter to Pegues in Vonterius Woolbright, the clear front-runner to win SoCon Player of the Year.

Woolbright has been incredible this season, averaging 21.4 points, 5.5 assists and 12 rebounds per game in a 22-9 season for the Catamounts.

Pegues and Woolbright won’t be guarding each other throughout this game but will likely be attempting to trade blows down the stretch from an offensive perspective.

I expect this game to be close throughout, so choosing one side or the other is difficult. For that reason, I’m sticking to a moneyline bet.

I’ll trust Furman’s backcourt to draw on the success of last year’s run to pull another close game out in the final few minutes.

Pick: Furman ML -110 (Play to -140)

North Carolina sports betting pre-registration is live! As of March 11, North Carolina residents can bet the games at NC legal sportsbooks. Learn about the best North Carolina sports betting apps to place those bets.

By Ky McKeon

No team in the Summit has been hotter down the stretch than the Kansas City Roos, winners of six straight, including triumphs over one-seed South Dakota State and three-seed North Dakota.

Marvin Menzies’ squad has gotten better and better as the season has progressed, and his team’s conference-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency is to thank.

Denver has trended in the opposite direction. The Pioneers are just 2-8 in their past 10 games and 2-11 against the spread in their past 13.

Whereas defense is the strength of the Roos, it’s a major detriment to the Pios. Only four teams in the country have a worse Adjusted Defensive Efficiency than Denver this season, per KenPom.

Usually, Denver’s strategy is just to outscore its opponent. The Pios boast an electric offensive attack led by the nation’s leading scorer, Tommy Bruner. However, Bruner left last game with a non-contact knee injury, and his status is up in the air.

If Bruner is out, Denver is in major trouble. Per CBB Analytics, the Pioneers are a net 18.8 points per 100 possessions better when Bruner is on the floor — by far the most impactful player on the team.

Even a hobbled Bruner could spell doom for Denver, which will need all the firepower it can get to crack UMKC’s physical, in-your-face defense.

UMKC has already beaten Denver by 14 and 15 points this season. In both games, the Roos scored easily and racked up a ton of free-throw attempts. UMKC also forced Denver into 30 turnovers across those two contests, far above the Pios’ average.

UMKC has Denver’s number tonight.

Pick: UMKC -4.5 (Play to -5)

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By John Feltman

San Diego knocked off Pepperdine last night, 57-52, in an all-around ugly basketball game. Now it gets to face a Santa Clara team that's been playing better basketball of late.

These two teams split the season series, and the market is suggesting that the Broncos are going to roll. Instead of targeting the game total or spread, I really like the team total under for the Toreros.

San Diego is an anemic offensive team, as many people witnessed last night. The Broncos rank 130th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, but they’re an elite defensive team on the perimeter.

The rebounding edge is heavily in the Broncos' favor as well. I don’t expect many second-scoring chances for the Toreros, and they rely heavily on their interior scoring, which ranks in the bottom third of the country.

The Toreros shoot 35% from deep as a team, but they shouldn’t find many clean looks from deep. Both teams like to turn up the tempo on offense, but I have faith that Santa Clara will shut down San Diego.

The spread suggests that the game is going to be a blowout, which makes me think the Toreros' offense will continue to struggle.

I’ll happily trust the Broncos' defense to get the job done.

Pick: San Diego Team Total Under 68.5 (Play to 67.5)