College Basketball Odds, Pick for Notre Dame vs Duke

Wednesday night on Tobacco Road brings a matchup of two programs in vastly different stages of the basketball life cycle.

The visiting Irish are in the youngest phase, incorporating freshmen and transfers with a first-year head coach. The results are not pretty – Notre Dame stands 7-15 overall, 2-9 in the ACC – but the future does seem bright with Micah Shrewsberry at the helm.

On the other hand, Duke has national title aspirations (like usual). The Blue Devils’ roster is immensely talented, but they are coming off a loss at arch-rival North Carolina, where they trailed for essentially the entire game.

Will that lead to an angry, “get right” effort at home against an ACC cellar dweller? Or will they overlook the young Irish and end up in a grinder?

With a deficiency in talent and experience, Shrewsberry has smartly dragged games into the muck. Aside from typically crawling Virginia, Notre Dame plays at the slowest pace in the conference, limiting possessions and transition opportunities.

Without easy buckets in the open court, the offense has struggled mightily. Per KenPom, it ranks 307th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, and it's the least efficient unit in ACC play.

Guards Markus Burton and Braeden Shrewsberry have shouldered heavy burdens as rookies, and while both show promise, Notre Dame struggles to get easy baskets.

Defensively, though, the Fighting Irish have battled admirably. Playing almost exclusively a conservative man-to-man, Notre Dame is a pain to score against, with big man Kebba Njie anchoring the ACC’s best 2-point percentage defense.

The Irish also rarely foul, taking away the charity stripe as a source of offense.

Shrewsberry has been mixing and matching lineups all season, trying to figure out what works best with a new cast of characters. Notre Dame has used seven different starting lineups, including moving freshman Logan Imes into the starting group a week ago.

The Irish’s pace and defensive slant has been great for betting unders this year. Per Team Rankings, Notre Dame totals are 7-15 this year (15 unders). However, they may have reached a critical mass, as two straight Irish games have gone over their extremely low totals.

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How realistic are the Blue Devils’ national title hopes? The answer to that question lies on the defensive end, where Duke has struggled in ACC play.

Six straight opponents have scored at least 1.03 points per possession, and it cratered in Chapel Hill as UNC racked up 1.22 PPP. The interior has some softness, as there is no true enforcer among the Kyle Filipowski, Ryan Young, Mark Mitchell frontcourt.

The young backcourt rotation has also struggled to create true on-ball pressure and make opponents uncomfortable.

Fortunately, the Blue Devils' offense has been scintillating. Filipowski is a nearly impossible matchup given his combination of size, shooting and off-the-bounce ability. All four primary Duke guards are shooting 38.5% or better from beyond the arc, opening space for Flip to attack.

And even Mitchell and Young have had big offensive games recently thanks to their activity level.

Of course, Notre Dame frustrated this offense in South Bend back on Jan. 6. That was the only ACC game where Duke failed to clear the 1.0 PPP bar, shooting just 39.4% from inside the arc.

Expect a better performance at home in Cameron Indoor Stadium, but Shrewsberry and Notre Dame may have a solid formula for limiting these Blue Devils.

This matchup provides a terrific barometer for the Duke defense. If, off a disappointing loss and back home in Durham, it cannot contain the paltry Irish attack, it's officially time to hit the panic button on its postseason ceiling.

A true national title contender bounces back with a pulverizing performance against a league dreg.

Notre Dame has been exceedingly difficult to blow out, though. The Irish have not lost an ACC game by more than 13 points, consistently mucking up the flow of the game enough to keep it close. Unsurprisingly, in true road games, the Irish are 5-2 against the spread.

Fading Duke off a loss is certainly frightening, as its immense talent advantage could make this a rout. However, Notre Dame has a strong CV of feisty underdog performances, and Shrewsberry’s coaching is a key edge.

I will take the points here and hope for a typical Notre Dame slog.

Pick: Notre Dame +16 (Play to +15)