Tennessee vs Texas A&M Odds & Prediction: Perfect Spot

Below, we have Tennessee vs. Texas A&M odds and a prediction for Saturday.

Tennessee looks to continue its dominance in the SEC as it hits the road for a bout with a Texas A&M team that looks to be finding its stride.

The Aggies have won four of their past five, including a comeback win against Florida last week. They took care of business in Missouri and now look to take home a marquee and likely tournament-clinching win against the Vols.

Meanwhile, Tennessee enters on a two-game win streak, most recently dropping 103 in Rupp Arena last Saturday over Kentucky.

Can Texas A&M pull off the upset win at home in front of a raucous Reed Arena? Or, will Tennessee's physicality and defensive prowess prove to be too much?

If there’s one constant in the SEC, it’s Tennessee remaining among the conference elite.

Rick Barnes’ squad ranks sixth in Kenpom, and the Vols are off to a dominant 17-5 start to the season. Aside from a surprise loss at home against South Carolina, Tennessee has rarely struggled, primarily because of their defensive intensity.

Tennessee ranks fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency and boasts a top-10 2-point defense. Much of that is thanks to 6-foot-11 junior Jonas Aidoo, who has quickly become an elite rim protector. He ranks third in block rate during SEC play and has registered at least two blocks in his past seven games.

Aside from Aidoo, this team doesn’t boast elite size like many others in the conference. But they are an extremely athletic and talented bunch on defense. The Vols are 12th nationally in Open 3 Rate allowed (15.8%) and lead the conference in steal rate.

ShotQuality ranks Tennessee fifth in the country out of the halfcourt and 11th in the pick-and-roll. Oh, and at the rim? They’re second!

The way to beat this team is through cutting and trying to force a defensive shift and open looks from the outside. The Vols rank 260th nationally in 3-point rate allowed but 33rd in 3-point shooting allowed. So, despite a high volume of looks, most are low-quality.

That said, you can force second-chance opportunities against Tennessee, especially when Aidoo is off the court.

On the other end of the floor, the offense runs through Dalton Knecht. He's taken 37% of Tennessee's shots when on the floor during SEC play while remaining mistake-free, ranking fourth among SEC players in turnover rate. Knecht has established himself in Player of the Year conversations and has scored 25 or more in seven of his past eight.

Aside from Knecht, this offense has struggled from the perimeter. Santiago Vescovi has shot much better but rarely touches the ball now that Knecht is in Knoxville. The Vols shoot 3s on over 40% of attempts.

The one downside to the offense is that while Knecht is the engine and an elite scorer, they rarely attack the rim. Most of their offense comes from the perimeter or midrange (22%), a largely inefficient shot.

Buzz Williams has never been able to string together an above-average offense in his stint with A&M, and the same rings true this season.

The Aggies rank 349th nationally in eFG% and are among the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country. And, save for superstar Wade Taylor IV, they rarely cash in at the charity stripe.

It's not pretty to watch, yet the Aggies have played well enough to earn an at-large bid in Joe Lundardi's latest bracketology report.

The reason why?

Physicality.

Texas A&M ranks tops nationally in offensive rebounding rate, with Andersson Garcia once again paving the way. He's eclipsed three offensive rebounds in all but one conference game to date. Even with Henry Coleman’s inconsistency, we’ve seen players like Solomon Washington and Tyrece Radford become second-chance generators.

The offense goes as Taylor does. While he struggles from the perimeter, few do-it-all playmakers are as good as the junior. He takes about 36% of all shots while on the floor and ranks second in SEC play in steal rate. Taylor has scored more than 15 points in all but one conference game.

This team doesn't turn the ball over and lives at the free-throw line. It’s oftentimes a brutal slugfest — precisely the type of game A&M wants to find itself in. The Aggies run the pick-and-roll at the seventh-highest rate in the country, looking to create isolation and/or mismatch opportunities.

The Aggies have defended better in conference play. They're the fourth-best SEC defense regarding efficiency and limit second-chance opportunities at an elite rate. The issue has been defending the long ball, where the Aggies rank 346th nationally in 3-point rate allowed.

That stems from Texas A&M playing under screens and forcing opponents to attack from over the top. The Aggies would instead give up a more inefficient look than an opening inside.

The issue? Opponents have shot well from 3. They rank 212th nationally in 3-point shooting allowed.

Texas A&M's physicality and athleticism will force you into mistakes — the Aggies rank third in the SEC turnover rate during league play — and it'll turn those mistakes into quick-strike transition offense to A) draw fouls and B) compensate for an inefficient half-court offense.

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This is as big a hold-your-nose spot as any.

Texas A&M is laughably bad at 3-point shooting, boasting one of the ugliest Power Conference offenses.

But you must expect some sort of positive regression in the coming weeks.

ShotQuality projects positive regression in every offensive category — from free throws to post-ups — and chief among them is a projected 7% boost from the perimeter.

That won't change overnight, but Saturday is a good matchup for A&M to strike. Tennessee is elite around the rim, thanks to Aidoo, but A&M's physicality on the glass should mess with the Vols.

Again, Texas A&M is the nation's best offensive rebounding team, while the Vols rank 168th in defensive rebounding rate. The Aggies won't turn the ball over and lose the game that way, so it comes down to grinding out a slugfest and making a handful of 3s.

There will be a rowdy and intense home crowd on Saturday. A win here would likely clinch an NCAA Tournament berth for Texas A&M, too.

It'll be ugly, but take the points with the home team.

Pick: Texas A&M +3.5 (Play to +3)

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