Thursday College Basketball Betting Data: Big, Late-Night Dogs Drawing Contrarian Interest
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Paris Austin
If your idea of a fun Thursday night is staying up late and sweating huge underdogs, then our public betting data has some surprises for you.
Contrarian bettors are all over Cal and Pacific, two of the worst teams in their respective conferences, as big dogs.
We’ll examine The Action Network’s market data to see whether there are any profitable contrarian opportunities, betting system matches and more below. This data is not a blind endorsement of these teams, but a good starting point to your handicapping.
Most Public Bets
As of 3:30 p.m. ET. Minimum 1,000 bets.
- Michigan -11.5 (81%) vs. Nebraska
- Gonzaga -22 (78%) at Pacific
- Oregon State -4 (78%) vs. Arizona
- Hofstra -7 (71%) at Drexel
- Furman -5 (71%) at Samford
Biggest Betting Ticket/Money Discrepancies
We track both betting tickets on a given game and the percentage of money that’s been bet on each side. If there’s a big discrepancy, there’s likely some sharper, larger bets on the opposite side.
Here are the three biggest discrepancies for Thursday as of 3:30 p.m. ET. This data will change as we get closer to tip offs (Minimum 1,000 bets).
Cal +11.5 vs. Washington
- 11 p.m. ET
- 38% of tickets, 90% of money
- 52% difference
- Line move: Cal +13 to +11.5
Pacific +22 vs. Gonzaga
- 11 p.m. ET
- 22% of tickets, 58% of money
- 36% difference
- Line move: Pacific +24 to +22
Mercer -5 at VMI
- 7 p.m. ET
- 39% of tickets, 69% of money
- 30% difference
- Line move: Mercer -4.5 to -5
EDGE subscribers can get the rest of the biggest ticket/money differences here.
Bet Labs Pro Trend
Over at Bet Labs, we’ve created historically profitable betting systems for every sport. Tonight, there are 11 games that fit a profitable user-generated or PRO system, including this one:
Fading Good Teams After a Loss
Michigan lost to Michigan State at home on Sunday, and bettors assume the Wolverines will bounce back and throttle Nebraska tonight. But our data suggests otherwise.
Simply betting against a team with a winning percentage of 69% or better, is coming off a loss and is getting 75% of bets in its next game has gone 142-76-6 (65.1%) since 2005. This system has gone 12-3 this season.
You can create your own betting systems, and get access to all our PRO systems, by signing up for a trial of Bet Labs here.
Sharp Money Indicators
Each day, we’ll highlight one game from our sharp report page that has multiple indicators of sharp action. Tonight, it’s ugly.
Cal hasn’t won a game since Dec. 21. That’s 16 straight games. It has arguably the worst defense of any major conference team.
But sharp bettors think the Bears are getting just a few too many points tonight, and are backing them at home against Washington.
Our betting data has triggered contrarian indicators and reverse line movement on Cal, moving the line from +13 to +11.5. It’s getting 38% of bets but 90% of the money.
EDGE subscribers can get full access to our sharp report page here.