UNC Wilmington vs Charleston Odds, Picks: Back the Underdog in CAA Final
Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Donovan Newby (UNC Wilmington)
UNC Wilmington vs. Charleston Odds
|UNC Wilmington Odds|
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
It all comes down to this. The Charleston Cougars have the opportunity to put a stamp on an incredible season, but it won’t come without a fight, as the UNC Wilmington Seahawks are aiming to go dancing in March.
The Cougars’ road here was light as they were the No. 2 seed, but they certainly had to battle with a very tough game against Towson last night. However, it appears their opponents did them a favor by knocking off No. 1 seed Hofstra.
However, the Seahawks may have Charleston right where they want them. Their upset victory last night avenged a regular season loss, and now they get a chance to knock off a team that defeated them twice.
So, what’s the best bet with a ticket to the Big Dance on the line? Let’s dive in to find out.
The Seahawks battled hard last night to get here, and while that may make them the more motivated team, it could hamper their offensive production, especially when you consider how they performed against Charleston this season.
Wilmington is at a disadvantage here, as the Cougars are an excellent defensive team. The Seahawks will be outranked 70 to 249 in effective field goal percentage, and their offense will have to come from the mid-range, with Charleston being tremendous on the perimeter.
However, the outlook is not all that bleak, as the Seahawks have plenty of guys who can drain shots from the mid-range. That was the case in the two regular-season meetings, as UNCW made 50% of its mid-range shots.
Lastly, UNCW is a team that relies heavily on getting to the free-throw stripe, and if it can make its jumpers early, there will be opportunities to draw fouls.
While Charleston does not foul much, UNCW did shoot 40 free throws over the course of the first two meetings.
The Cougars enter this matchup 30-3 on the season, and they have overwhelmed teams on the offensive end of the floor with a high-volume perimeter attack.
They have the 10th-highest 3-point attempts-to-field goal attempts ratio in the nation, but they are 200th in 3-point percentage.
While that gives them the potential to blow teams out if they get hot, the Seahawks are a team that could stifle them. UNCW is 26th in 3-point percentage allowed and only 27% of the points it’s allowed this season have come from beyond the arc.
Charleston’s two offensive performances against UNCW this season were interesting because it was able to succeed in areas that are not its strengths. In the first meeting, the Cougars went 10-of-29 from 3 and barely made enough shots from inside the arc to squeak out the win.
Then in the second meeting, the Cougars again struggled from deep but dominated the offensive boards and shot 65% from inside the arc.
However, in the bigger picture, their rebounding edge is not large, so it will be tough for them to repeat that performance.
UNC Wilmington vs. Charleston Betting Pick
The market has initially moved in favor of Charleston, and that move makes sense when you consider the tired legs of UNCW after its great effort last night.
However, Charleston is also playing a back-to-back, and if it slows it down, the tempo will favor the Seahawks.
UNCW has avenues to succeed on both ends of the floor in this matchup, and this third meeting should look more like the first than the second. Be sure to get the best number possible and back the Seahawks to challenge Charleston.
Pick: UNCW +10 (Play to 9)
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