NIT Odds, Pick & Prediction for VCU vs Utah

The Utah Utes opened the NIT with a pair of home wins over Iowa and UC Irvine, and they could add a third victory in front of their fans in Salt Lake City, Utah, against the VCU Rams.

While the odds favored Utah in each of its first two games, VCU navigated and won two road games as underdogs against Villanova and South Florida.

Tell me if you've heard this before: VCU is an elite defensive team. Shocker, I know.

Under Ryan Odom, the Rams' defense ranks 43rd nationally in Defensive Efficiency. It's not the same havoc style the previous coaches preached, though. VCU just uses its size and athleticism to force difficult shots, limiting teams to 46% shooting from 2 (top-35 nationally) and 30.3% from 3 (30th nationally).

The Rams held Villanova and South Florida to below 26% shooting from 3 in the prior two rounds. Those are two teams that want to shoot it with regularity from 3, but neither puts pressure on the rim like Utah.

The Rams' offense is less exciting to watch. VCU turns the ball over on 18% of its offensive possessions, often losing flow due to too many turnovers.

The real offensive key is shooting. The Rams shoot 3s on 45% of their possessions, connecting on 35% of those shots. Possessions are a premium against VCU due to its slow-paced attack, so hitting shots and limiting turnovers is everything.

Odom will look to the trio of Max Shulga, Joe Bamisile and Zeb Jackson for scoring. Shulga is often too passive and doesn't take over games like he should, but he's a total monster when he's "on."

The other two haven't met a shot they don't like, which could kill the Rams, like Jackson's ill-advised look in the A-10 title game. Bamisile is more dynamic, offering a rim-attacking presence and above-average shooting prowess.

The Utes exploded in their first two NIT games, scoring 1.18 PPP and 1.20 PPP. That's nothing new for the Utes' 48th-ranked offense, which shoots 36% from 3 and 53% from 2-point range.

The offense performs better when connecting on 3s, as Utah is shooting 36% from deep on the season, with 40% of its shots from coming from downtown.

Utah's offense runs through point guard Deivon Smith, who posted a triple-double in the win over Boston College. That's not Smith's first triple-double, and probably won't be his last.

He's one of the quickest guards in the country, and if he grabs rebounds, it results in a straight-line drive to the basket for a layup or a dump off to a trailer.

Smith isn't a flawless player. He's a poor shooter, so teams will pack the lane in the half-court to try to stay in front of him.

The Utes will also rely on veterans Branden Carlson and Gabe Madsen. The 7-footer Carlson is a big-time shooter from deep (37%), while Madsen charges off screens and demands constant attention for his shooting ability.

Shooting is the key on both sides, but I trust the Utes' abilities more.

VCU wants to win in the 70-point range, while Utah's equally strong offense and defense makes it competitive in different styles.

Plus, Utah is nearly unbeatable in the Huntsman Center, losing just twice all season.

I'm expecting a strong performance in Salt Lake.

Pick: Utah -6.5

The must-have app for college basketball bettors

The best NCAAB betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW