Wyoming vs BYU Odds, Pick for Saturday

I feel like Wyoming and BYU should play every year. These are two strong, formerly mid-major squads located somewhere in the western mountains.

The Cowboys and Cougars will meet for the 175th time (!!) Saturday in Provo, but it’ll be the first in over a decade, as they last played in March 2011. For context, Jimmer Fredette dropped 38 points in the 102-78 win.

BYU leads the series 105-69. The Pokes are a measly 14-66 in Provo.

Wyoming likely won’t improve upon that record on Saturday.

BYU enters this contest as one of the nation’s best teams (fourth in KenPom), while the Pokes have stumbled to a 7-5 start, most recently dropping one to UTEP in El Paso.

The Cougs are whopping 23-point favorites.

The Pokes are a tough team to cap.

On the one hand, Wyoming’s offense is likely undervalued, as it struggles to score without big man Mason Walters, who's now healthy after injury. Jeff Linder’s ball-screen offense heavily utilizes roll-men, and Walters can really score off the short roll or in the post.

Pair Walters with point guard Sam Griffin, who’s among the nation’s best isolation dribble penetrators and shot creators, and the Pokes have a legit college basketball offense – they should score more efficiently going forward.

Then again, Wyoming is due for all sorts of shooting regression. The Cowboys are generating 1.19 PPP on guarded jumpers and 1.62 on unguarded, second-best nationally and close to .4 over the national average. Meanwhile, opponents are generating just .94 PPP on unguarded jumpers, much lower than expected.

The Pokes are shooting 38% from 3, and their opponents are shooting 29%, but ShotQuality projects those numbers closer to 35% and 34%, respectively, based on the “quality” of shots taken and allowed.

So, Wyoming should create more but could shoot much worse from now on. I’m unsure what to make of that.

On the other end of the court, Wyoming’s passive defense often struggles to contain the dribble, but the Pokes’ ball-screen defensive metrics check out OK.

While Griffin is great off the dribble, he and the rest of the Wyoming offense struggle to take care of the ball. The Pokes rank 354th nationally in turnover rate (22%), throwing the ball away almost 16 times per game.

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The Pokes are due for shooting regression, but the regression monster looms much larger over the Cougars.

The main reason BYU has jumped so far up the ratings system is hot shooting paired with cold opposition shooting. The Cougars have canned 38% of their deep balls, while opponents are shooting 25%, two unsustainable marks, especially considering how much they shoot (fifth nationally in 3-point rate, 50%).

Regarding 3-point-reliant squads like BYU, I always wonder what the plan is when the shots aren’t falling. The Cougars never get to the charity stripe, ranking 359th nationally in free-throw rate.

That said, BYU is a dangerous two-way team in areas outside jump shots.

The Cougars are shooting 60% from inside the arc, using on-ball screens, off-ball screens and cutters to generate 1.34 PPP at the rim, the fifth-best mark nationally. They’re getting out in transition plenty and scoring in the open court (18 transition points per game).

They’re crashing the glass better than any collegiate hoops team, ranking first nationally in defensive rebounding rate and 19th in offensive rebounding rate.

Meanwhile, everyone is defending. BYU is running shooters off the 3-point line, ranking tops nationally in Quality 3s allowed, per ShotQuality, while holding its own against ball screens, in the post and at the rim.

Of importance to this matchup: Fousseyni Traore is still nursing a hamstring injury and hasn’t played since late November. He’s probably the team’s best defender, especially down low and against roll-men. The Pokes’ post-up defensive metrics have taken a hit since he went down, and his absence could open the door for Walters to keep the Pokes around.

The key to stopping BYU is pressuring the ball handlers — Rudi Williams, Dallin Hall and Spencer Johnson — and throwing off Mark Pope’s continuity offense. The Cougs are not immune to turnovers (309th nationally in turnover rate) and haven’t handled the press especially well.

Traore is currently listed as “questionable” for Saturday’s matchup.

If he’s out, I’ll likely find myself on the Pokes.

I can’t lay this much with a crazy-overvalued BYU team, and Walters should score off the roll and in the post against a shorthanded interior defense.

If the Cougars dictate pace, score in transition and shoot the lights out, I’ll have to tip my cap and move on. But I don’t see the Cougars blowing out Coach Linder if the overdue shooting regression lands.

For what it's worth, Coach Linder-led teams are 52-45-1 ATS when catching points, a 54% hit rate that generates a moderate profit.

That includes a 2-1 ATS record as a 20-point-or-more 'dog.

ShotQualityBets projects BYU as a 22-point home favorite, and I tend to agree – I think BYU ultimately wins by double-digits, but between 10 and 20 rather than 30-plus.

Of course, if Traore plays, I’ll have to buy out – his presence on the interior is so important to stopping Linder’s roll-man-heavy offense.

Monitor the injury report closely, and bet the Pokes if the injury report goes our way.

Pick: Wyoming +23 if Traore is Out (Play to +22)

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