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2022 College Football Win Totals: Where Betting Value Lies for SEC East Futures

2022 College Football Win Totals: Where Betting Value Lies for SEC East Futures article feature image
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Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Stetson Bennett.

College football win total season continues, as WynnBET has released numbers for the SEC East.

SEC West win totals dropped at WynnBET on April 1, and our college football expert and senior writer Collin Wilson broke down each team’s number. Now, we continue that trend with Wilson’s projected win totals compared to WynnBET’s numbers.

From Georgia’s high mark of 11.5 to Vanderbilt’s low bar of 1.5, we’ll compare win totals and projections for all seven SEC East teams.


Georgia Bulldogs · Win Total: 11.5

The Bulldogs are riding high after capturing their first national title since 1980, and expectations have not changed much for the 2022 squad.

Georgia’s win total for this season sits at 11.5 at WynnBET, but the under is heavily juiced at -250. Wilson sees a little bit of value on the under, with his projection sitting at 10.74.

It’s hard to ignore that the team will look a bit different in 2022.

On the defensive side of the ball, Jordan Davis, Devonte Wyatt and Nakobe Dean have all left for the NFL. On offense, wide receiver George Pickens left to play on Sundays, while Zamir White and James Cook have also declared for the draft after combining for 1,584 yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground last season.

The defense — which ranked first in the nation in Success Rate and second in Finishing Drives — also lost coordinator Dan Lanning, who took the head coaching job at Oregon.

If you’re interested in playing the Bulldogs’ under, Wilson would consider betting South Carolina in a Game of the Year and Lanning’s Ducks in a Week 1 date with his former team.

Action Network Total: 10.74

WynnBET Total: 11.5 (+200 / -250)


Tennessee Volunteers · Win Total: 8.5

Tennessee’s 2022 season should be an interesting one.

Josh Heupel’s team boasted one of the best offenses in the country last season, as it ranked 14th in Success Rate, 18th in Finishing Drives and 29th in Havoc Allowed. That unit also returns 68% of its production from last season, including quarterback Hendon Hooker and leading receiver Cedric Tillman.

But things get a little more complicated on the defensive side of the ball.

The Vols ranked 89th in Success Rate last year and now own a TARP (Transferring Assets and Returning Production) of only 19% in that unit. While they posted respectable ranks in Finishing Drives and Havoc, there’s still a very real mountain to climb.

Tennessee also has a tough nonconference game against Pitt in its second contest of the season and faces Alabama from the SEC West.

Projection-wise, Wilson sees a little bit of betting value on the Vols under.

Action Network Total: 7.81

WynnBET Total: 8.5 (-115 / -105)

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Kentucky Wildcats · Win Total: 8

Mark Stoops and company are coming off of a solid 10-win season that culminated in a victory over Iowa in the Citrus Bowl.

Kentucky’s bread and butter last season proved to be its offense behind quarterback Will Levis, wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson and running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. The unit ranked seventh nationally in Success Rate and recorded a top-40 rank in Havoc Allowed.

While Robinson is off to chase his NFL dream, Levis and Rodriguez return for what should be another quality year in Lexington. As a whole, Kentucky’s TARP sits at 67% on offense.

There are things to be excited about on defense, as well. After being a good-not-great unit in 2021 — Kentucky posted ranks of 37th in Success Rate and 35th in Finishing Drives, respectively — it returns 64%.

The Wildcats avoided Bama on the schedule and face Georgia, South Carolina and Mississippi State at home. Things are lining up for Kentucky, so Wilson has its win total at just over 8.5.

Action Network Total: 8.54

WynnBET Total: 8 (-110 / -110)


Florida Gators · Win Total: 7

Welcome to the SEC, Billy Napier. After leading Louisiana to three double-digit win seasons in a row, the former Ragin Cajuns’ head man now resides in Gainesville and looks to catapult the Gators back to the top.

This is a new Florida team. Emory Jones is gone, leaving Anthony Richardson as the sole signal-caller in the backfield.

Luckily for Richardson, Florida’s offense wasn’t the problem last season — and it shouldn’t be this year, either. The Gators owned top-30 ranks in Success Rate and Finishing Drives in 2021 and now return 70% of their offense.

The defense is a different story, as it ranked 47th in Success Rate, 105th in Finishing Drives and 75th in Havoc. Former Florida defensive coordinator was fired in the middle of the season, so Patrick Toney followed Napier from Louisiana to serve as co-defensive coordinator and safeties coach.

The Gators have a tough road in front of them, highlighted by a season-opening matchup against Utah. But if this new coaching regime can settle in and the defense steps up, an over may be in order.

Action Network Total: 8.28

WynnBET Total: 7 (-110 / -110)


South Carolina Gamecocks · Win Total: 6

There’s no way around it: This will be an interesting season all-around for the Gamecocks.

South Carolina made plenty of moves in the transfer portal, highlighted by the pickup of Spencer Rattler from Oklahoma. Rattler, who was replaced by Caleb Williams last season, began 2021 as the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy.

But the Gamecocks didn’t stop there.

Shane Beamer also picked up Rattler’s teammate Austin Stogner at tight end and Wake Forest’s Christian Beal-Smith at running back.

Although it’s difficult to project how these pieces will fit in and how Rattler will perform, South Carolina should have a better offense than it did last year when it ranked 97th in Success Rate — the second-lowest mark in the division.

If we transposed Rattler’s 2020, we would have that win total. While Wilson’s numbers lean heavily toward a South Carolina number, it’s impossible to say because of the uncertainty with SC’s transfers.

Action Network Total: 3.7

WynnBET Total: 6 (-150 / +130)


Missouri Tigers · Win Total: 5

For starters, Missouri has the lowest net TARP numbers in the East. To make things even worse, the Tigers weren’t that impressive in 2021. Add those key elements together, and you get a recipe for a win total under.

Mizzou’s defense finished the season ranked 119th in Success Rate, 129th in Finishing Drives and 80th in Havoc. Now, it returns only 39% of that production.

On offense, there will be plenty of new faces as the Tigers own a TARP number of just 32%.

Starting quarterback Connor Bazelak transferred to Indiana, leaving Brady Cook to take over. Running back Tyler Badie, who ran for 1,604 yards and 14 touchdowns, left for the NFL. No other player recorded more than 40 carries for Mizzou last season.

If tanking existed in college football, Missouri might be a prime candidate. Things will now be easy in the third year of the Eli Drinkwitz era.

Wilson likes the under.

Action Network Total: 3.77

WynnBET Total: 5 (-120 / +100)


Vanderbilt Commodores · Win Total: 1.5

Vanderbilt might have a new logo, but it’s the same Commodores that will take the field in August. After all, this is a team that lost to East Tennessee State by 20 to open the season.

The Commodores won two games in 2021: one over Colorado State and the other over an FBS bottom-feeder in UConn.

Vandy’s schedule isn’t that friendly this time around. While it does face Elon in Week 2, its other nonconference games come against Hawaii, 2021 ACC Championship runner-up Wake Forest and 2021 MAC champion Northern Illinois.

The offense sat 128th in Success Rate last year, while the defense came in at 122nd.

There’s a chance Vanderbilt catches a team like Missouri off guard in conference play, but there’s a very real chance the Commodores’ only two wins come in Week 1 and Week 2 — if they even win those two.

Action Network Total: 2.02

WynnBET Total: 1.5 (-180 / +160)

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