Army vs UMass Odds, Picks: How to Bet This Meaningless Matchup

Army vs UMass Odds, Picks: How to Bet This Meaningless Matchup article feature image

Dustin Satloff/Getty Images. Pictured: Army quarterback Tyhier Tyler.

Army vs UMass Odds

Saturday, Nov. 26
12 p.m. ET
Army Odds
-105o / -115u
UMass Odds
-105o / -115u
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

If you enjoy solid offensive line play and a run-heavy offensive game plan, then this matchup between Army and UMass is for you.

Army brings its 4-7 record to New England in hopes to salvage its season after a slow start. The Black Knights offense was hit by the injury bug, and the defense has taken a massive step back from a group that finished 9-4 last year.

They are primed to find their fifth victory of the season matching up against a UMass group that has yet to beat an FBS opponent.

All 10 of the Minutemen's losses this season have come by an average of 20 points per game. Only two games have been decided by less than double digits.

The value comes on the total in this matchup between two run-heavy offenses.

Army Black Knights

Army’s offense was decimated by injuries throughout the season but has started to get some of its key players back in recent weeks.

Quarterback Tyhier Tyler finds himself back in the lineup and leads the run-heavy offense in yards per game this season. He’s averaging 4.6 yards per carry and has punched in nine touchdowns on the ground.

Tyson Riley ranks second on the team in rushing yards, averaging 54 per game, but the home-run threat in Tyrell Robinson has been sorely missed. Robinson has been out since the matchup with Wake Forest on Oct. 8 after averaging 8.4 yards per carry early in the season.

It's no secret that Army ranks third in the nation in Rush Rate, keeping the ball on the ground on 82% of its plays this season. Eleven separate players have found the end zone on the ground this year.

The Army defense has been suspect this season, allowing 400 total yards per game. Opponents are averaging 5.3 yards per carry against the defensive front, which ranks 122nd in the country.

The secondary isn’t much better, giving up 8.0 yards per pass attempt to rank 106th.

In this matchup, it’ll certainly be the front seven that determines the outcome. UMass' passing attack has been nonexistent this season. The Minutemen have run their offense more like a service academy of late.

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Massachusetts Minutemen

The Minutemen have continued their losing ways, posting a 3-36 record since 2019. In Don Brown’s return as head coach, the program has won just one game this season — a 20-3 victory over FCS Stony Brook.

The defensive-minded coach has entered all but one game as a double-digit underdog this season. Despite losing by an average of 20 points per game, the program has covered the spread in five matchups.

The UMass offense is averaging only 12 points and 270 yards of total offense per game against FBS competition. It ranks seventh in the nation in Rush Rate but averages just 3.4 yards per carry.

The group is reliant on the rushing attack mainly because it doesn't have a quarterback who can throw the ball effectively. Four separate quarterbacks have had a crack at the role, but they've combined to throw 12 interceptions to only four touchdown passes.

Brady Olson has taken over the starting role for the back half of the season. He’s completed 49% of his passes while averaging five yards per pass attempt.

Defensively, the group has holes all over the field as well.

The Minutemen have allowed five yards per carry, which ranks 116th in the nation against FBS competition. That’s a big concern in a matchup against Army's run-heavy triple-option offense.

Army vs UMass Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Army and UMass match up statistically:

Army Offense vs. UMass Defense
Rush Success2146
Line Yards764
Pass Success12733
Pass Blocking**12490
Finishing Drives3429
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

UMass Offense vs. Army Defense
Rush Success130129
Line Yards122127
Pass Success129114
Pass Blocking**3299
Finishing Drives13077
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling8764
PFF Coverage5599
SP+ Special Teams76122
Seconds per Play30.3 (127)28.8 (110)
Rush Rate86.2% (2)66.0% (7)
Data via (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Army vs UMass Betting Pick

Neither side has a whole lot to play for in this matchup.

It would be nice for UMass to pick up a victory over an FBS program, but the chances are slim. Meanwhile, Army will likely be looking ahead to its matchup with Navy in early December.

The total in this matchup sits at 45, and we have two teams that rank inside the top seven in Rush Rate. Each program is one-dimensional offensively, so this matchup will replicate that of two service academies.

UMass is coming off a 20-3 defeat at the hands of Texas A&M. In its three prior matchups, the defense hadn't allowed more than 330 total yards. I anticipate that trend to continue against Army's triple option.

With the clock constantly moving in this matchup, I don’t see this hitting 40 total points. I make this total 40.5 and will be playing the under all the way down to 42.

Pick: Under 45 (Play to 42)

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