When the total for Navy-Air Force (3:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN) was released, sharp bettors couldn’t bet the under quickly enough. The consensus total opened at 46 and was immediately bet down to 45.
At the time of writing, 67% of the tickets and 73% of dollars have come in on the under. The public seems to be catching on and tailing the sharps for these schools, and for good reason.
Service academies, including Air Force, Army and Navy, are run-first teams. This offensive philosophy keeps the clock moving and shortens games. Since their styles are all similar, they’re also familiar with stopping the run on a consistent basis, which helps promote a lower-scoring environment.
These service academy matchups are also very meaningful for the players and coaches involved. The added intensity is just another bonus for under bettors.
Historically, it has been profitable to bet the under when two service academies play.
Since 2005, unders have hit at a 80.5% rate when service academies meet according to Bet Labs. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $2,329 following this simple system.
A 42-game sample is small. But all of our records are based on closing lines. So even if bettors miss the best of the line, they’ve still been able to cash.
Here’s a quick look at how service academy unders perform when the total decreases:
- Decreases at least 0.5 point: Unders are 23-4 (85.2%)
- Decreases 1 or more points: Unders are 21-2 (91.3%)
- Decreases 2 or more points: Unders are 15-0 (100.0%)
We could see this total drop even more, so now is the time to bet the under.
