Auburn vs LSU Odds & Prediction: Back the Bayou Bengals?
Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Jayden Daniels (LSU)
Auburn Tigers vs LSU Tigers Odds
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +310 |
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -400 |
You’ve heard of an immovable object colliding with an unstoppable force, but how about an incredibly movable object clashing with an extremely stoppable force?
That’s exactly what’s on the menu this week when LSU’s anemic pass defense is asked to stop Auburn’s non-existent passing game.
LSU fans have a strong argument to make as the most disappointed fanbase in the country, but recent history should tell them the season isn’t over yet. The Tigers stumbled to a similar 4-2 record last year before going on to beat Alabama and win the SEC West.
Auburn is still in the rebuilding phase in Year 1 of Hugh Freeze’s tenure, but it has shown it can hang tight with the top of the class in the SEC. Auburn has beaten LSU in two of the past three seasons.
In a clash of weakness vs. weakness, which SEC West foe reigns supreme?
Auburn arrives in Death Valley rested after a bye week. It most recently kept it close with No. 1 Georgia, losing by only a touchdown to close out September.
The Tigers find themselves near the bottom of most SEC power rankings, thanks in large part to their one-dimensional offense. They are basically the Air Force of the South.
Auburn has thrown for more than 94 yards in just two games this season, both against non-Power Five teams (UMass and Stanford). Michigan State transfer Payton Thorne hasn’t been the passer Freeze hoped for, throwing for just 128.6 yards per game with four touchdowns and four interceptions.
Despite a popular belief that Robby Ashford might be the better fit for this offense, the dual-threat quarterback has only been used sparingly, rushing for 134 yards and five touchdowns, while also throwing 18 passes.
The Tigers rely on a ground game that ranks ninth in Success Rate. They average more than 200 yards a game rushing, led by Jarquez Hunter and Thorne, who have combined for 400 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.
Auburn’s defense has been middle of the road, ranking 30th and 52nd in Pass Success and Run Success Allowed, respectively.
The Tigers did a fairly good job of slowing Georgia until the fourth quarter, and they lead the SEC in red-zone defense, allowing opponents to score on just 69.2% of possessions inside their 20.
Cornerback Jaylin Simpson is tied for the SEC lead with four interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown. He'll be an interesting matchup to watch against LSU’s explosive passing attack.
While LSU hasn’t exactly lived up to preseason expectations, it still has one of the best offenses in the country, led by one of the most exciting players in football.
Jayden Daniels probably won’t win the Heisman Trophy because of his team’s record, but he’s compiling a resume worthy of the discussion. Daniels is second in the nation in total offense (398.5 yards per game), has accounted for more touchdowns (23) than anyone except USC's Caleb Williams and leads all quarterbacks with 8.2 yards per carry (excluding sacks).
Daniels has completed nearly 73% of his passes for close to 2,000 yards, and he’s added another 442 yards on the ground. His 2,411 total yards account for 73.2% of the LSU offense.
But all of his success — and even the emergence of Notre Dame transfer running back Logan Diggs — can only do so much when the LSU defense is so poor.
LSU’s pass defense ranks 123rd in the country, allowing 285.3 yards per game. Only Colorado and UMass have allowed more touchdowns through the air than LSU’s 15. Missouri’s Brady Cook passed for a career-high 411 yards last week against the Tigers.
The pass defense, however, is likely a moot point against this anemic Auburn passing game. More important will be the Tigers’ run defense, which has fared slightly better, ranking 111th in Run Success Allowed.
Ole Miss notably ran for 317 yards against LSU earlier this season.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Auburn and LSU match up statistically:
Auburn Offense vs LSU Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 9 | 110 | |
| Line Yards | 71 | 91 | |
| Pass Success | 85 | 116 | |
| Havoc | 108 | 70 | |
| Finishing Drives | 69 | 124 | |
| Quality Drives | 50 | 124 |
LSU Offense vs Auburn Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 4 | 52 | |
| Line Yards | 5 | 42 | |
| Pass Success | 11 | 30 | |
| Havoc | 4 | 37 | |
| Finishing Drives | 11 | 36 | |
| Quality Drives | 4 | 29 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 62 | 75 |
| PFF Coverage | 9 | 108 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 40 | 104 |
| Middle 8 | 5 | 10 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.7 (81) | 26.2 (56) |
| Rush Rate | 63.3% (15) | 53.0% (65) |
Auburn vs LSU
Betting Prediction, Pick
The Auburn offense could be just what LSU needs to finally have a less-than-awful day slowing the opposition down.
LSU has simply needed to outgun its opponents on offense this season, but that shouldn’t be the case this week in Death Valley. The Auburn offense has not been a strong point for Freeze and Co., and its pass game won’t be able to expose LSU’s biggest weakness.
Furthermore, Auburn has not had much recent success away from Jordan-Hare during conference play. The Tigers haven’t recorded a road SEC victory since October 2021 and have lost by an average of 16 points in that span.
You’d be broke if you consistently relied on LSU’s defense this year to win you bets, but I’m going to do just that. The Tigers held Mississippi State to just 14 points and 201 total yards a month ago, and I think they can do something similar against Auburn.
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