Auburn vs Texas A&M Odds & Prediction: Betting Value on This SEC Favorite
Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Featured: Texas A&M player LT Overton
Auburn vs Texas A&M Odds
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -375 |
Conference openers are always fun.
We have a great game with Auburn and Texas A&M set to kick off their respective SEC campaigns this Saturday in College Station.
The visiting Tigers will make their second road trip of the season after pulling out a 14-10 defensive slugfest against Cal in Berkeley.
Meanwhile, for the Aggies, this will be the first true Kyle Field atmosphere after a couple of tune-up games at home sandwiched by the road loss at Miami in Week 2.
With Alabama's well-documented struggles to start the year, the SEC West feels more open than in prior seasons, making this matchup between potential SEC West winners more crucial than ever.
Let's discuss where the betting value lies.
With Hugh Freeze taking over the program and former MSU QB Payton Thorne transferring in at the 11th hour, Auburn was one of the biggest mysteries entering the 2023 season.
Ultimately, I would say Freeze's tenure has gotten off to a solid start when you look at the 3-0 record.
But Saturday is the biggest test his team has faced.
The Tigers' offense looked rather hopeless for the entirety of the Cal game, and I'm honestly still puzzled about how they won. Auburn had just 12 first downs, turned the ball over four times and Thorne didn't even break 100 yards through the air.
Needless to say, that formula won't get it done at a raucous Kyle Field.
As for the Tigers' defense, this will also be the unit's most formidable challenge thus far. The Aggies are balanced offensively, so Auburn won't be able to blitz and attack as it has against the pedestrian offenses of UMass, Cal and Samford.
Forcing a turnover or two will be crucial if the Tigers want to keep this one close.
The issue for Texas A&M has been its pass defense. Tyler Van Dyke shredded the Aggies through the air, which proved to be the difference in the Week 2 loss at Hard Rock Stadium.
The good news for the Aggies in this matchup? The Tigers' passing offense hasn't shown much promise.
Additionally, A&M has been much better against the run when compared to last season. The Aggies rank top-25 nationally in Rush Success Rate Allowed and Defensive Line Yards, which is crucial against an Auburn team that wants to lean on its ground game.
On the other side of the ball, quarterback Conner Weigman looks much improved. Some of that is Bobby Petrino, and some is natural maturation.
Regardless, Weigman's growth has significantly raised the Aggies' offensive ceiling.
A&M has amassed over 400 yards of offense in all three contests this season. While the Tigers' defense is no pushover, there's plenty of reason to believe it could be another big day for this unit.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Auburn and Texas A&M match up statistically:
Auburn Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 5 | 14 | |
| Line Yards | 31 | 21 | |
| Pass Success | 37 | 121 | |
| Havoc | 64 | 9 | |
| Finishing Drives | 10 | 47 | |
| Quality Drives | 56 | 60 |
Texas A&M Offense vs. Auburn Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 40 | 54 | |
| Line Yards | 32 | 64 | |
| Pass Success | 46 | 3 | |
| Havoc | 39 | 36 | |
| Finishing Drives | 26 | 17 | |
| Quality Drives | 6 | 10 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 21 | 98 |
| PFF Coverage | 20 | 95 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 80 | 18 |
| Middle 8 | 8 | 37 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.7 (65) | 25.4 (41) |
| Rush Rate | 61.6% (14) | 41.7% (117) |
Auburn vs Texas A&M
Betting Pick & Prediction
Many people wrote off the Aggies after the road loss to Miami, but the Hurricanes might be a top-20 team this year.
Auburn is still largely unproven. Freeze should go on to do some nice things at Auburn, but his roster in year one leaves plenty to be desired.
The Aggies' offense should be able to find some explosives down the field, and I don't think Auburn has the firepower to match that.
Give me Texas A&M to come out inspired at home and win this game convincingly as it starts SEC play.
Gig 'em.
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