Bowling Green vs Kent State Odds, Prediction: How to Bet This Over/Under

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We all went dumpster diving last week when Akron and Kent State faced off in the 2023 Toilet Bowl, but my goodness, this matchup might be just as brutal.

If you thought last week was ugly, just wait until we head out to Dix Stadium in Ohio on Wednesday evening.

The Kent State Golden Flashes host the Bowling Green Falcons as they look to pick up their second victory of the season. The Falcons are coming off a fortunate win over Ball State in a game they were narrowly outgained in total offense.

Let's try to dig through this pile of trash and uncover some Wednesday Night MACtion gold.

The Falcons offense has been a rollercoaster this entire season, and I have a feeling it's going to continue to trend downward.

Running back Terion Stewart, who has been a machine for the Falcons averaging nearly 6.5 yards per carry during MAC play, is most likely out for this game. Stewart was seen with crutches after he injured his ankle last week against Ball State, and he's officially listed as questionable.

If he's out, a lot more pressure will land on the shoulders of quarterback Connor Bazelak's shoulders, who has already struggled to be a consistent passer this season. Bazelak is completing only 58% of his passes this season, and he's been even worse in conference play at 53%.

The Falcons offense ranks 104th in Passing Success Rate and 124th in Havoc Allowed. I realize Kent's defense isn't very good, but this smells like a spot in which Bazelak struggles without his star running back.

On the defensive side of the ball, the numbers don't get much better. This defensive unit sits outside the top 80 in almost every defensive category, including a bottom-25 rank in Line Yards and Rushing Success Rate.

Surprisingly, the Falcons enter inside the top 50 in both PFF tackling and coverage grading. They're also not too terrible inside the 40-yard line, as they tend to force a lot of drives to stall in the red zone.

If Stewart was a guaranteed go, I would be interested in the Falcons in this spot. However, this could easily be a game in which they overlook their opponent on the road considering the Golden Flashes have one win on the season.

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I spoke about how bad the Falcons offense has been, but wait until I dive into these Golden Flashes numbers. News flash: They're worse.

Kent State ruined our under last week, as I was surprised to see this offense find some success against a mediocre Akron defense. I was even more surprised the Golden Flashes put up over 340 yards of total offense and 27 points on the scoreboard.

Maybe these metrics are skewed due to the level of competition they've faced, but this Golden Flashes team is dead last in Rushing Success Rate and 127th in Havoc Allowed.

You'd be stunned to see that Kent comes in at 28th in rush rate despite its horrid ground attack. The good news is that quarterback Tommy Ulatowkski looked pretty sharp last week, and he gets a good matchup against a terrible Falcons defense in Week 11.

Normally, I'd say the Flashes could find some success here on offense, but I'm worried about their ability to finish drives. This is also an area where the Falcons defense has been solid, so I truly don't know how Kent will replicate last week's success.

It's also important to note that wide receiver Chrishon McCray is questionable, and even if he plays, he will not be 100%. McCray completely shredded Akron's secondary last week for six catches and 161 yards.

Defensively, this team will get a break if Stewart sits out for the Falcons. But this secondary still has to step up.

Considering the Golden Flashes are 69th in Line Yards, I think this defensive front should get a bit of a push against a struggling offensive line.

I don't want to waste too many more words about this horrific defense, but I will note that Kent State actually has a very good special teams unit. I would expect it to pin the Falcons deep on numerous possessions if its offense struggles to move the ball.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Bowling Green and Kent State match up statistically:

Bowling Green Offense vs Kent State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	86	85
Line Yards	88	69
Pass Success	104	129
Havoc	124	119
Finishing Drives	110	131
Quality Drives	104	113

Kent State Offense vs Bowling Green Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	133	114
Line Yards	115	102
Pass Success	117	80
Havoc	127	97
Finishing Drives	105	64
Quality Drives	124	61

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	24	117
PFF Coverage	42	123
Special Teams SP+	93	25
Middle 8	30	120
Seconds per Play	30.9 (131)	28.0 (86)
Rush Rate	57.8% (35)	61.9% (28)

I wanted to hold my nose and go against the market with Kent State here, but I think the best play is the under. I realize we got burned last week with the under in the Toilet Bowl, but I think we'll have a bit more wiggle room in this matchup.

First and foremost, Stewart's absence would be a huge blow to the Falcons. Kent State's defense is atrocious, but its defensive front should have the edge against the BGSU's front.

The Falcons are also one of the slowest teams in the nation on offense, so the clock should be ticking throughout. The Flashes should continue to run the ball the majority of the time, and they're also in the bottom half of the country in terms of seconds per play.

Don't get me wrong — these defenses aren't world-beaters by any stretch. But I expect both of these offenses to struggle, especially if the Falcons get pinned deep in their own territory by the Flashes' excellent special teams unit.

Let's hope these quarterbacks protect the football and the clock runs rapidly all night long.

Pick: Under 41 (Play to 40)

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