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The Cincinnati Bearcats take on the Iowa State Cyclones in Ames, Iowa. Kickoff is set for 12:00 p.m. EST on TNT.
Iowa State is favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -155. The total is set at 59.5 points.
Here’s my Cincinnati vs. Iowa State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 14, 2026.
Cincinnati vs Iowa State Prediction
- Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Pick: Cincinnati +3 or Better
My Iowa State vs. Cincinnati best bet is on the Bearcats. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Cincinnati vs Iowa State Odds
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 59.5 -112o / -108u | +130 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 59.5 -112o / -108u | -155 |
- Cincinnati vs Iowa State point spread: Iowa State -3 (-110), Cincinnati +3 (-110)
- Cincinnati vs Iowa State over/under: 59.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Cincinnati vs Iowa State moneyline: Cincinnati +130, Iowa State -155
Cincinnati vs Iowa State College Football Preview
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
Bounce Back Fade is a college football system that takes advantage of public overreaction to teams coming off a poor performance.
In conference play, when an opponent has just lost by more than three points and enters with only a one-game home or away streak, bettors often expect a strong rebound effort.
Oddsmakers know this tendency and may shade the line toward that team, creating hidden value on the other side.
By focusing on spreads between three and sixteen points, the system captures games that are competitive enough for the line to matter but not so close that small swings decide the outcome.
In these situations, fading the supposed bounce-back team has historically delivered consistent returns, as motivation alone doesn't erase the underlying weaknesses that caused the initial loss.
Cincinnati vs Iowa State Pick, Betting Analysis
Iowa State got crushed last week at Baylor, giving up a whopping 42 points in a double-digit loss.
Sure, I could see the Cyclones bouncing back, especially since they dropped 51 to Oklahoma State the week before. Jaylen Raynor is still a dangerous quarterback, and they're a super-explosive offense (1.35, 11th nationally) that typically finishes drives in the red zone (4.52 points per opportunity, 15th nationally).
But Cincinnati is also due for a bounce-back performance after consecutive losses. In fact, the Bearcats have lost four of their past five games, but against some of the best talent the Big 12 has to offer:
- 24-point loss to Arizona
- 3-point loss to West Virginia
- 13-point win over Texas Tech
- 24-point loss to Utah
- 7-point loss to Houston
Iowa State's performance in similar games:
- 36-point loss to Arizona
- 3-point win over West Virginia
- 14-point loss to Utah
By strength of record/schedule, I would price this as a coin flip. But underneath that, I think the numbers heavily favor Cincinnati.
The Bearcats have a downright dangerous dual-action rushing attack behind quarterback JC French and the running back duo of Cole Tabb and Gi'Brane Payne — those three have combined for nearly seven yards per carry and over .25 EPA per Rush.
As a team, the Bearcats rank 13th nationally in EPA per Rush, sixth in Rush Explosiveness, and fourth in yards per carry behind an offensive line that ranks sixth in Offensive Line Yards.
Meanwhile, the Cyclones' rush defense ranks 124th nationally in EPA per Rush allowed and 116th in Rush Success Rate allowed behind a weak front seven that ranks 77th in Defensive Line Yards (2.95).
And despite giving up plenty of methodical drives, the back end does nothing to prevent chunk plays (119th nationally in Standard Downs Explosiveness allowed, 119th nationally in Rush Explosiveness allowed).
Cincinnati's defense has its issues, but if it can drop deep into coverage and force Iowa State to methodically move down the field, I don't think the Cyclones can do it. Yes, Iowa State is explosive, but the offense also ranks 86th nationally in Success Rate, including 121st in Standard Downs Success Rate.
The Bearcats should dominate time of possession, and I think special teams will amplify that effect, given Cincinnati ranks top-40 nationally by Net Field Position (+2.1) while Iowa State ranks outside the top 100 (-3.3).
The Bearcats feel slightly undervalued here, mostly because they've lost a few games to good competition while the market assumes the Cyclones will bounce back and pick up a win in Ames (which I don't buy for a second).
Pick: Cincinnati +3 or Better
