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The Wake Forest Demon Deacons take on the SMU Mustangs in Dallas, Texas, on Saturday, Nov. 14. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
SMU is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -110. Wake Forest, meanwhile, enters as a +1.5 underdog and is +110 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 60.5 total points.
Here’s my Wake Forest vs. SMU prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 14.
Wake Forest vs SMU Prediction
- Wake Forest vs. SMU Pick: Under 61 or Better
My SMU vs. Wake Forest best bet is on the under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Wake Forest vs SMU Odds
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
- Wake Forest vs SMU point spread: Wake Forest +1.5 (-120), SMU -1.5 (+100)
- Wake Forest vs SMU over/under: 60.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Wake Forest vs SMU moneyline: Wake Forest -110, SMU -110
Wake Forest vs SMU College Football Preview
Wake Forest Demon Deacons Betting Preview: Lopez Set to See Action
Quarterback Gio Lopez was out for Wake Forest's most recent win, a 77-0 annihilation of Merrimack from the FCS.
Head coach Jake Dickert stated that a lower-body injury suffered against Virginia in Week 9 was progressing and he's on the "right track" to see action against SMU.
Lopez has been critical to the Demon Deacons' offensive success, a unit that ranks as the top overall scoring team in terms of Finishing Drives.
Wake Forest has one of the highest numbers of offensive drives to cross the opponent's 40-yard line, averaging 5.1 points per trip.
The surprising aspect of Wake Forest football comes on the defensive side, with the team ranking in the top 20 among all FBS teams in opponent Success Rate allowed, Quality Drives allowed and Defensive Finishing Drives.
Opposing offenses have struggled to create explosive plays against coordinator Scottie Hazelton's defense. The Demon Deacons rank as the top defense nationally in allowing 20-yard plays from scrimmage.
SMU Mustangs Betting Preview: Big Game
SMU recovered from a Week 9 loss at Syracuse with a rocking-chair victory over Virginia Tech. The Mustangs posted a 63% Success Rate on standard downs, leading to just 17 plays on passing downs.
The explosive drive was the biggest variable for the offense, creating offensive possessions that averaged at least 10 yards per play on 4-of-11 drives.
Quarterback Kevin Jennings had four pass-catchers average more than 10 yards per target, as Yamir Knight and Jalen Cooper combined for four touchdowns on more than 200 yards of receiving.
The SMU defense continued to struggle in two key areas, as Virginia Tech averaged 6.7 yards per carry and cashed in with a touchdown on all three red-zone attempts.
The Mustangs boast a top-25 pass-rush defense and fall within the top 40 of Havoc rankings, but the ability to get opposing offenses off schedule has been the challenge.
SMU ranks 78th in standard downs Success Rate allowed compared to 20th in passing downs. Third-down defense has been immaculate for head coach Rhett Lashlee, ranking ninth in third-down defense.
Wake Forest vs SMU Pick, Betting Analysis
For SMU to climb into position for the ACC Championship game, the defense must step up on standard downs. Wake Forest elects to run the ball on 58% of first downs and just over 50% of second downs, placing emphasis on the run concepts.
The Demon Deacons are a zone-read offense led by running back Ty Clark III. The junior has been lackluster in elusiveness, averaging just 2.7 yards after first contact while forcing only 13 missed tackles on the season.
The SMU defense has a respectable 51% Success Rate against inside and outside zone, indicating that Wake Forest will need heroics from Lopez.
SMU has fielded a much better pass defense than rush defense, ranking in the top 50 in EPA allowed. Lopez has high Success Rate numbers against SMU's preferred coverages of man, Cover 3 and Cover 1.
The Mustangs' ability to generate pressure is key against Lopez, as the quarterback has failed to force a turnover-worthy play in a clean pocket. Wake Forest ranks 71st in pass blocking, an issue against SMU edge defender Marques White, who has seven sacks and 29 pressures on the season.
Wake Forest will also be successful in sending the opposing offense into passing downs. SMU uses the zone-read run concept more than most teams in FBS, but the Demon Deacons have a high 57% Success Rate against it.
The biggest advantage for Wake Forest in the advanced statistics is the elite numbers in allowing methodical drives and converting scoring opportunities into points.
The Demon Deacons rank 13th in Quality Drives, defined as the ability to limit methodical possessions. SMU has struggled to get downfield all season without using explosives, ranking 89th in offensive momentum killer.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings have SMU slightly favored by a point, directly where the market resides.
The bigger edge comes in the totals department with a projection of 55.
SMU's heavy pass rush will create a crowded pocket for Lopez, as his turnover-worthy play rate rises to 3.4% with pressure.
Conversely, SMU will struggle to sustain drives and enter scoring position against a Wake Forest defense that has been top-10 in points allowed in scoring position.
Pick: Under 61 or Better
Wake Forest vs SMU Betting Trends
