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The Auburn Tigers take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville, Miss. Kickoff is set for 12:00 p.m. EST on ESPN2.
Auburn is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -145. The total is set at 50.5 points.
Here’s my Auburn vs. Mississippi State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 14, 2026.
Auburn vs Mississippi State Prediction
- Auburn vs. Mississippi State Pick: Auburn -2.5 ( Play to -3)
My Mississippi State vs. Auburn best bet is on Auburn to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Auburn vs Mississippi State Odds
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -146 |
| Mississippi St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +122 |
- Auburn vs Mississippi State point spread: Auburn -2.5 (-115), Mississippi St +2.5 (-105)
- Auburn vs Mississippi State over/under: 50.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Auburn vs Mississippi State moneyline: Auburn -145, Mississippi St +120
Auburn vs Mississippi State College Football Preview
Auburn Tigers Betting Preview
Auburn is a hard team to read, but the good version of it showed up last Saturday. The Tigers trailed Arkansas 13-9 entering the fourth quarter, then scored 17 in the final quarter and won 26-23 when Alex McPherson hit a 42-yard field goal with 33 seconds left, his second game-winner of the season.
The engine was Byrum Brown, who went 23 of 34 for 180 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, adding 120 rushing yards, including the touchdown that gave Auburn its first lead with 12:50 to play.
That is the formula that has defined Alex Golesh's first season: Brown carries a lot of the offense, and the Tigers have found ways to stay in games and win the ones that come down to the final possession. Auburn went into Athens on October 17 and beat No. 1 Georgia 27-24, and it beat Vanderbilt 21-15 earlier in the year.
The other side of that is the bad version. Auburn lost 38-17 to LSU and 45-15 at Ole Miss in back-to-back weeks, and it fell 24-14 at Tennessee in a game where Brown's 107 rushing yards were more than half of the team's 186. When the Tigers fall behind, the offense leans on Brown to improvise, and they average 24.3 points a game while allowing 26.3.
What makes this a better spot than most is the opponent. Auburn does not need to be great Saturday, it needs to be competent against a team that has struggled to sustain drives, and the defense has real pass-rush traits to work with.
Freshman linebacker Shadarius Toodle had 11 tackles, three sacks, and 4.5 tackles for loss against Arkansas, and the national numbers say Auburn has 7 sacks when the game is tied, the most in the country.
The concern is health on the defense and the offensive line. Linebacker De'Marcus Riddick, who missed the Arkansas game, is questionable; linebacker Bryce Deas is out for the season, and offensive lineman Tai Buster is out.
Head Coach Alex Golesh has said close wins are helping develop his younger players, and Saturday is a chance to keep that going on the road.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview
Mississippi State has lost five straight, and the shape of the slide matters. The Bulldogs have lost to Alabama 56-23, LSU 31-0, Oklahoma 23-15, Texas 31-3 and, most recently, Vanderbilt 25-23 at home on homecoming. Over those five games, Mississippi State has scored 64 points total, about 13 a game, and it has not won a game without quarterback Kamario Taylor, who is out again this week.
A.J. Swann was the quarterback against Vanderbilt, and he had a respectable line: 23 of 36 for 254 yards and two touchdowns with an interception, but the game itself shows the problem. The Bulldogs failed to get a first down on four straight drives between the first and second quarters, trailed 16-0 at halftime, and got into the Vanderbilt 8-yard line in the fourth quarter only to settle for a field goal.
The defensive side is not much better. Mississippi State allows 27.8 points a game, and it was gashed on a long Vanderbilt drive, an 18-play, 87-yard march that took more than 10 minutes. The Bulldogs do have a pass rush that shows up in the red zone, where they lead the nation with six red zone sacks, and Sanfrisco Magee gave them a 65-yard touchdown against Vanderbilt.
However, turnovers have also been a real issue, and that has put a struggling defense in even worse situations. The outlook for the Bulldogs to salvage their season in this matchup is bleak.
Auburn vs Mississippi State Pick, Betting Analysis
I like Auburn at this number for a few reasons.
Start with the comparison through common opponents. Auburn lost to LSU 38-17, while Mississippi State lost 31-0. Auburn beat Vanderbilt 21-15, while Mississippi State lost to the same Commodores 25-23 at home. Neither of those comparisons is airtight, but both point in the same direction.
The injury reports lean Auburn's way, too. Mississippi State is without Taylor and receiver Ayden Williams on offense, and on defense it is missing linebackers Jalen Smith and Derion Gullette, linemen Diesel Moye and Trevion Williams, and safety Isaac Smith, which is a lot of lost depth for a unit already allowing nearly four touchdowns per gam.
On the field, the matchup is in Auburn's favor where it counts. Brown is the most impactful player in this game, and Mississippi State has not shown it can score enough to make Auburn play from behind. The Tigers' offense does not need to dominate, because the Bulldogs scored 0, 3, and 15 points in three of their last five games.
If Auburn gets to the upper 20s on the scoreboard, Mississippi State has to score more than it has in a month to keep up.
Pick: Auburn -2.5 ( Play to -3)
