If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
The Northwestern Wildcats take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in Columbus, Ohio. Kickoff is set for 12:00 p.m. EST on FOX.
Ohio State is favored by 13.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -650. The total is set at 44.5 points.
Here’s my Northwestern vs. Ohio State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 14, 2026.
Northwestern vs Ohio State Prediction
- Northwestern vs. Ohio State Pick: Ohio State Team Total Under 29.5 Points (-125, Play to 28.5)
My Ohio State vs. Northwestern best bet is on the Buckeyes team total under 29.5 points. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Northwestern vs Ohio State Odds
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 +100 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +480 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -120 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -650 |
- Northwestern vs Ohio State point spread: Ohio State -13.5 (-120), Northwestern +13.5 (+100)
- Northwestern vs Ohio State over/under: 44.5 (-110o / -11ou)
- Northwestern vs Ohio State moneyline: Northwestern +480, Ohio State -650
Northwestern vs Ohio State College Football Preview
Northwestern Wildcats Betting Preview
Northwestern's offense has benefited from an injection of creativity from Chip Kelly this year, who has almost completely turned to the Wing T, but it also hinges on quarterback Aidan Chiles' availability. Without the starter in the lineup, Northwestern was held to just 10 points (the lone touchdown was scored with under two minutes left).
Chiles won't go again — he was confirmed out in Wednesday night's injury report. Against a talent-laden Ohio State defense, this is likely to be another significant hindrance for Northwestern. When it came time to throw the ball against Iowa (largely on late downs), backup Nicco Marchiol wasn't effective — the Wildcats converted just once on nine third- and fourth-down pass attempts.
On the other side, the Northwestern defense has held up its end of the bargain, ranking 47th in points per drive allowed. It thrives in the red zone, sitting 10th in Red Zone Success Rate allowed, 18th in touchdown rate allowed, and 25th in EPA per Red Zone play allowed. That defense allowed Northwestern to stay in the game against Indiana and, for much of the game, against Oregon.
There is reason for concern with a downright crime of a schedule assigned to the Wildcats. Their bye week happened in Week 2, after hosting South Dakota State, and they will play 12 consecutive games, 11 against Power Conference opponents. This coming week marks the ninth straight game, and the run of opponents is arduous — at Oregon (34-26 loss), against Iowa (24-10 loss), at Ohio State, at Minnesota, and at home against Illinois.
Despite season-long success, it's a long road ahead. Keep an eye on Northwestern to slip as the weeks drag on.
Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Preview
The Ohio State Buckeyes are not a very good football team.
Power ratings won't adjust quickly enough this late in the season, but this is fundamentally not the same team that led Texas 23-3 going into the fourth quarter of Week 1. The AP Poll and College Football Playoff rankings are even slower to adjust, keeping the Buckeyes around the top 20 despite giving up 38 unanswered points to Oregon at home.
Luke Fahey isn't necessarily the entire problem — after adjusting for drops and throwaways, he completed 82% of his 51 dropbacks — but there's not much of a complementary run game, and the offensive play calling flat-out stinks. Despite rostering playmakers like Devin McCuin, Chris Henry Jr., and Legend Bey, offensive coordinator Arthur Smith insists on primarily multi-tight end sets. And instead of throwing to one of the best college football players ever, Jeremiah Smith, the Buckeyes routinely draw up plays for the second tight end.
Running back Bo Jackson and tight end Nate Roberts each have more targets than Brandon Inniss (who's missed the last two games), a player who wears the Block O for the Buckeyes.
And despite having multiple NFL prospects and strong PFF blocking grades, Ohio State's offensive line is a liability. The three most-used tackles (Phillip Daniels, Ian Moore, and Austin Siereveld) have accounted for a combined 27 quarterback hurries and eight penalties, but the tape shows a story of being routinely beaten off the ball by defensive ends from Ball State — half of the time, the ball goes away from the lost rep.
Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia took the college football world by storm by implementing an NFL defense that led the nation in many statistical categories last year. But that system worked because five of the players were top-end NFL Draft picks (three inside the top 15), including both linebackers. That's not the case this year, and this unit is vulnerable to creative play calling, patient passers, and physical offensive lines. Without a game-breaker like Caleb Downs or Arvell Reese, this defense isn't terrific.
This is a stand I am taking — Ohio State is a terrific fade for the remainder of the season, as markets and power ratings are slow to adjust aggressively to a real downfall, as they did with Penn Statea year ago.
Northwestern vs Ohio State Pick, Betting Analysis
Ohio State is a 12.5-point home favorite, bet up from 9.5 in anticipation of Chiles being ruled out. The point total was bet down from 48.5 to 45.5, giving Northwestern just a 16.5-point team total.
Ryan Day will stay with Fahey in this game after a decent performance in his second full start. But cracks are really starting to show in this team — Jeremiah Smith was visibly upset throughout the Oregon game, and the effort on defense plummeted following Oregon's successful fake punt.
At 6-3, the playoffs are probably out of the question, especially without Julian Sayin. Within a program not used to this kind of adversity during the season, how do the players stick with it?
In Week 1, Ohio State -12.5 would have been a no-brainer. But this isn't your Week 1 Buckeye team. This is a significantly worse team, taking on water with injuries at critical positions and a defense that's basic and cannot be trusted the way it was in September.
Northwestern's biggest defensive shortcoming is allowing explosive runs to explosive backs. Jackson has certainly improved, but the more explosive back, Ja'Kobi Jackson, remains out for Ohio State. This is a Northwestern coaching staff fully capable of dictating how opposing offenses approach the game, and I expect Broyles Award finalist defensive coordinator Tim McGarigle to force the ball into Fahey's hands.
On the flip side, Kelly should be able to scheme his run-heavy approach into multiple sustained drives and drain the clock. His offense runs a new play every 28.1 seconds (108th), while we haven't seen Ohio State run a lick of tempo since Week 2.
Arthur Smith is not serious about forcing Fahey to get the ball to Jeremiah Smith. Ohio State will continue to run headfirst into a brick wall trying to get tight ends involved. There should be no reason to be confident in this offense for the remainder of the season.
Pick: Ohio State Team Total Under 29.5 Points (-125, Play to 28.5)
Northwestern vs Ohio State Betting Trends
