How is it already Week 11?
While last week was a stacked slate of bangers, this week is built for real ball knowers, with sneaky great games from dawn until dusk.
Our staff has five college football picks and predictions for the Noon slate of games on Week 11, which you can read about below on Saturday, November 14.
College Football Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 PM | |
  | 12:45 PM | |
  | 12 PM | |
  | 12 PM | |
  | 12:30 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Wake Forest vs. SMU Prediction
For SMU to climb into position for the ACC Championship game, the defense must step up on standard downs. Wake Forest elects to run the ball on 58% of first downs and just over 50% of second downs, placing emphasis on the run concepts.
The Demon Deacons are a zone-read offense led by running back Ty Clark III. The junior has been lackluster in elusiveness, averaging just 2.7 yards after first contact while forcing only 13 missed tackles on the season.
The SMU defense has a respectable 51% Success Rate against inside and outside zone, indicating that Wake Forest will need heroics from Lopez.
SMU has fielded a much better pass defense than rush defense, ranking in the top 50 in EPA allowed. Gio Lopez has high Success Rate numbers against SMU's preferred coverages of man, Cover 3 and Cover 1.
The Mustangs' ability to generate pressure is key against Lopez, as the quarterback has failed to force a turnover-worthy play in a clean pocket. Wake Forest ranks 71st in pass blocking, an issue against SMU edge defender Marques White, who has seven sacks and 29 pressures on the season.
Wake Forest will also be successful in sending the opposing offense into passing downs. SMU uses the zone-read run concept more than most teams in FBS, but the Demon Deacons have a high 57% Success Rate against it.
The biggest advantage for Wake Forest in the advanced statistics is the elite numbers in allowing methodical drives and converting scoring opportunities into points.
The Demon Deacons rank 13th in Quality Drives, defined as the ability to limit methodical possessions. SMU has struggled to get downfield all season without using explosives, ranking 89th in offensive momentum killer.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings have SMU slightly favored by a point, directly where the market resides.
The bigger edge comes in the totals department with a projection of 55.
SMU's heavy pass rush will create a crowded pocket for Lopez, as his turnover-worthy play rate rises to 3.4% with pressure.
Conversely, SMU will struggle to sustain drives and enter scoring position against a Wake Forest defense that has been top-10 in points allowed in scoring position.
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Pick: Under 61 or Better
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Alabama vs. Vanderbilt Pick
By Stuckey
This is a vicious situational spot for the Tide following their monumental upset win at LSU last weekend.
That all but locked up their ticket to the College Football Playoff with a very easy remaining schedule that includes Chattanooga, Auburn and this week's road date with Vandy.
Vandy also profiles as an attractive larger underdog under this staff, which will look to shorten this game at all costs by limiting the number of overall possessions.
Look for Vandy to play slower and to take all of the underneath stuff that Kane Wommack's defense will allow. We've also seen Alabama struggle as a larger road favorite under Kalen DeBoer in recent seasons.
The Commodore defense will be overmatched from a talent standpoint, but they do a pretty decent job of limiting explosive passing plays and bringing pressure, which are both required boxes you must check to slow down Alabama's potent offense.
Plus, star quarterback Keelon Russell is dealing with a bit of an ankle injury, so he may not run as frequently in this particular game. You could also see a quicker hook with a bigger lead, which could open up the backdoor if needed.
Additionally, the Alabama staff has also talked about how they must improve their rushing attack, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Tide go a bit heavier with the run game in Nashville, which would obviously help shorten the game and give Vandy a better shot at keeping this within the number.
It's been a disappointing season for Vanderbilt, but this can serve as a bit of a Super Bowl (expect a trick play or two), while I'm not sold that we get a fully locked-in Alabama squad following that win at LSU.
Plus, I imagine we might eventually see some negative turnover regression for Alabama. The Tide lead the nation with an absurd +52 net EPA from turnovers. For reference, Louisiana Tech ranks second at +41, and Vanderbilt sits outside the top 90 at -7.5.
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Pick: Vanderbilt +17.5 or Better
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Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Best Bet
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
Bounce Back Fade is a college football system that takes advantage of public overreaction to teams coming off a poor performance.
In conference play, when an opponent has just lost by more than three points and enters with only a one-game home or away streak, bettors often expect a strong rebound effort.
Oddsmakers know this tendency and may shade the line toward that team, creating hidden value on the other side.
By focusing on spreads between three and sixteen points, the system captures games that are competitive enough for the line to matter but not so close that small swings decide the outcome.
In these situations, fading the supposed bounce-back team has historically delivered consistent returns, as motivation alone doesn't erase the underlying weaknesses that caused the initial loss.
Iowa State got crushed last week at Baylor, giving up a whopping 42 points in a double-digit loss.
Sure, I could see the Cyclones bouncing back, especially since they dropped 51 to Oklahoma State the week before. Jaylen Raynor is still a dangerous quarterback, and they're a super-explosive offense (1.35, 11th nationally) that typically finishes drives in the red zone (4.52 points per opportunity, 15th nationally).
But Cincinnati is also due for a bounce-back performance after consecutive losses. In fact, the Bearcats have lost four of their past five games, but against some of the best talent the Big 12 has to offer:
- 24-point loss to Arizona
- 3-point loss to West Virginia
- 13-point win over Texas Tech
- 24-point loss to Utah
- 7-point loss to Houston
Iowa State's performance in similar games:
- 36-point loss to Arizona
- 3-point win over West Virginia
- 14-point loss to Utah
By strength of record/schedule, I would price this as a coin flip. But underneath that, I think the numbers heavily favor Cincinnati.
The Bearcats have a downright dangerous dual-action rushing attack behind quarterback JC French and the running back duo of Cole Tabb and Gi'Brane Payne — those three have combined for nearly seven yards per carry and over .25 EPA per Rush.
As a team, the Bearcats rank 13th nationally in EPA per Rush, sixth in Rush Explosiveness, and fourth in yards per carry behind an offensive line that ranks sixth in Offensive Line Yards.
Meanwhile, the Cyclones' rush defense ranks 124th nationally in EPA per Rush allowed and 116th in Rush Success Rate allowed behind a weak front seven that ranks 77th in Defensive Line Yards (2.95).
And despite giving up plenty of methodical drives, the back end does nothing to prevent chunk plays (119th nationally in Standard Downs Explosiveness allowed, 119th nationally in Rush Explosiveness allowed).
Cincinnati's defense has its issues, but if it can drop deep into coverage and force Iowa State to methodically move down the field, I don't think the Cyclones can do it. Yes, Iowa State is explosive, but the offense also ranks 86th nationally in Success Rate, including 121st in Standard Downs Success Rate.
The Bearcats should dominate time of possession, and I think special teams will amplify that effect, given Cincinnati ranks top-40 nationally by Net Field Position (+2.1) while Iowa State ranks outside the top 100 (-3.3).
The Bearcats feel slightly undervalued here, mostly because they've lost a few games to good competition while the market assumes the Cyclones will bounce back and pick up a win in Ames (which I don't buy for a second).
Pick: Cincinnati +3 or Better
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Auburn vs. Mississippi State Team Total
By Kyle Hunter
I’m not breaking any news here, but Mississippi State misses Kamario Taylor badly.
The Bulldogs have failed to score more than 23 points in all four games without him. That includes last week, when they played a poor Vanderbilt defense and failed to score once in the first half.
Auburn is coming off a close call. The Tigers didn’t show up ready to play, and they were nearly beaten at home by Arkansas. Alex Golesh and the coaching staff should find enough motivation coming off that gross performance.
This will be my smallest play of the week because of the tempo. Both teams rank top-ten nationally in pace, so there will be plenty of possessions.
That said, these two offenses aren't very efficient.
The best way for the Mississippi State offense to move the ball lately has been through the explosive running attack. Fluff Bothwell is a talented runner, and he has broken off a couple of long runs against Oklahoma and Vanderbilt in recent weeks.
That said, Auburn’s defense ranks 15th nationally in Rush Explosiveness allowed — the Tigers are well-suited to stop the Bulldogs' attack.
Even when Mississippi State has moved the ball in recent weeks, it's failed to finish drives.
Until I see Mississippi State clear this team total without Taylor, I have to bet the Under.
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Pick: Mississippi State TT u24.5 or Better
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Georgia Tech vs. Clemson Player Prop
By Doug Ziefel
Dalen Penson has been one of the most dependable pass catchers on Georgia Tech’s roster. The sophomore, who only moved from cornerback to receiver this offseason, has 33 catches for 500 yards and has reached at least 50 receiving yards in seven of nine games.
That includes 86 yards and a touchdown at Virginia Tech, 88 and a touchdown against Boston College, and 66 on five catches against Louisville last week. He’s a 15-yards-per-catch player who gets his production on a steady diet of short throws, and his only real problem has been the quarterback instability around him.
The game script points toward pass volume. Georgia Tech is a 13.5-point road underdog, and its defense allows 32.2 points and more than 222 rushing yards a game, so Clemson should lean on the run, and the Yellow Jackets will have to throw to keep pace.
Nearly 60% of Tech’s throws travel fewer than 10 yards, a quick-game approach that creates a steady flow of targets. Penson and tight end Kevin Roche are the underneath options, with Jordan Allen working the outside.
Clemson’s defense is good but has been beatable through the air. The Tigers allow about 213 passing yards a game on 6.6 yards per attempt, and Syracuse threw for 263 on them last week. With Georgia Tech trailing, Penson needs only four or five catches at his usual 15 yards a grab to clear this number.
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Pick: Dalen Penson Over 43.5 Rec Yards or Better
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