San Jose State vs Coastal Carolina Odds, Prediction, Pick | Hawaii Bowl Betting Preview
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San Jose State vs Coastal Carolina Odds
| San Jose State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
| Coastal Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +260 |
Aloha! Welcome to the 20th iteration of the Hawaii Bowl, where two rush-heavy offenses in Coastal Carolina and San Jose State will look to cap off the 2023 season. Both teams will each make their first Hawaii Bowl appearance, playing in the new Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex.
The Chanticleers represent the first Sun Belt team to ever compete in the bowl, making the longest trip of any team to reach the island of O'ahu.
First-year head coach Tim Beck continued the success of the Coastal Carolina program, making a fourth consecutive bowl game. Despite injuries and transfers for the most important pieces to the roster, the Chanticleers had an outside chance of making the Sun Belt Championship appearance before losing to James Madison in the season finale.
Six of Coastal Carolina's wins came against bowl teams — an impressive feat considering philosophical changes on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball in 2023.
San Jose State head coach Brent Brennan will take his team on another trip to the state of Hawaii. The Spartans have traveled to Honolulu three times since the 2020 season, beating the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors in every instance.
Brennan saw his team end the regular season on a heater, winning the final six games of the season. However, the old BCS formula of computer polls kept San Jose State from attending the Mountain West title game.
While the Hawaii Bowl is a nice consolation prize, it has even more meaning for Brennan, who looks to honor his late cousin and legendary Hawaii quarterback Colt Brennan.
San Jose State suffered a few notable losses to the transfer portal since the conclusion of the regular season.
Tight end Dominick Mazotti averaged 14 yards per catch on 36 targets this season but has committed to play for UMass next year.
The biggest portal loss comes with left tackle Fernando Carmona, as no player in the past two years has logged more than 14 snaps at the blindside tackle position.
Carmona has been the primary driver for the success of quarterback Chevan Cordeiro. The Hawaii transfer posted 278 yards in scrambles this season compared to just 32 from designed rushing attempts.
Chevan Cordeiro on the keeper and San Jose State is ROLLING@SanJoseStateFB | #BeyondFootballpic.twitter.com/GfoNfcCgKg
— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) October 8, 2022
San Jose State has an even distribution of run and pass attempts, utilizing its strength of inside zone.
The Spartans boast one of the most explosive ground attacks in the country thanks to the running back combination of Kairee Robinson and Quali Conley.
However, the numbers decline in terms of Success Rate and explosives when it comes to the passing game.
On defense, SJSU struggled to keep opponents off the scoreboard, as efficiency fluctuated within the multiple personnel from down to down. San Jose State posted horrific numbers against the rush in 3-4 and 2-5-4 personnel but eliminated explosives in various nickel packages.
The most consistent issue for the Spartans was tackling, ranking 108th, per PFF. San Jose State allowed plenty of ground explosives because of poor tackling, with opponents posting 63 runs of at least 10 yards this season.
Coastal Carolina's roster could best be described as fluid.
Former quarterback Grayson McCall hit the transfer portal and committed to NC State, removing any question of playing in the bowl game. Backup Jarrett Guest also elected to enter the portal, giving third-string Kansas transfer Ethan Vasko starting duties.
The second-year quarterback previously started three games in November, posting four touchdowns and a single interception. The greatest value that Vasko adds is the ability to run McCall's playbook, as he generated 340 yards rushing on just 38 attempts.
𝗛𝗘 𝗚𝗢𝗡𝗘@CoastalFootball QB Ethan Vasko just went 75 yards for the Touchdown!
He’s up to 153 yards rushing on 15 carries today
pic.twitter.com/SxACE3UCjR— Frary & Smith Podcast (@FraryandSmith) November 4, 2023
Offensive concepts changed with the hiring of Beck, as the new-look Chanticleers have moved away from man-blocking schemes to inside zone. Coastal Carolina transformed into a more methodical offense, ranking 21st in Quality Drives while maintaining a high level of explosives from a rush and pass perspective.
While the offense found balance, the defense found success against the pass but not against the rush.
The Chanticleers' 3-3-5 personnel finished top-20 in Defensive Passing Success Rate and allowing explosives. Defensive coordinator Craig Naivar used an even split of Cover 1 and Cover 3, grading out in the top 30 in terms of PFF coverage grades.
Coastal Carolina struggled to stop the ground game, falling outside the top 100 in Defensive Rushing Success Rate, Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
The good news for the Chants defense is its ability to stop opponents in one-on-one tackling. Coastal Carolina finished 16th in broken tackles allowed, negating dozens of explosives plays in Sun Belt play.
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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how San Jose State and Coastal Carolina match up statistically:
Coastal Carolina Offense vs San Jose State Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 104 | 106 | |
| Line Yards | 109 | 127 | |
| Pass Success | 58 | 50 | |
| Havoc | 91 | 126 | |
| Finishing Drives | 101 | 73 | |
| Quality Drives | 21 | 73 |
San Jose State Offense vs Coastal Carolina Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 40 | 113 | |
| Line Yards | 67 | 114 | |
| Pass Success | 53 | 20 | |
| Havoc | 54 | 74 | |
| Finishing Drives | 80 | 67 | |
| Quality Drives | 36 | 66 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 26 | 108 |
| PFF Coverage | 28 | 25 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 119 | 128 |
| Middle 8 | 64 | 89 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.2 (92) | 29.9 (118) |
| Rush Rate | 53.0% (75) | 53.9% (63) |
San Jose State vs Coastal Carolina
Betting Pick, Prediction
San Jose State would have the upper hand in terms of intangibles off the field. The Spartans have played and won numerous times in Honolulu over the past three seasons, while Coastal Carolina will make the longest travel plans of any other team.
Pictures of shirtless head coaches with dance teams have captured the attention of the public, but this game is about two mobile quarterbacks and the tackling ability of each defense.
Cordeiro is not alone in creating yards in space for the San Jose State offense, as Robinson and Conley each average 4.2 yards after contact.
Coastal Carolina's ability to stop runners in space has been one of its biggest advantages this season. A handful of starters on the Chanticleers defense own a missed tackle percentage below 10% on the season, including nickel Juan Powell and cornerback Keonte Lusk.
Meanwhile, San Jose State has consistently struggled with missed tackles, as Jordan Pollard and Tre Jenkins — the Spartans' second- and third-leading tacklers — have a missed tackle rate above 20%.
Both teams will struggle with special teams and Finishing Drives, but San Jose State's inability to tackle will be the difference-maker.
The Spartans also have additional problems in keeping teams out of the end zone, ranking 132nd in red-zone efficiency. No team in the country has a worse defensive red-zone touchdown rate than the Spartans.
Pick: Coastal Carolina +8.5 or Better
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