College Football Best Bets, Odds: 4 Evening Picks for Duke vs. Florida State, Clemson vs. Miami & More
John Byrum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Clemson football helmets.
- There's plenty of college football action on Saturday evening, and our staff has four best bets to dive into.
- Among our best bets for Saturday evening are Duke vs. Florida State, Clemson vs. Miami and more.
- Read on for all four best bets for Saturday evening's college football games.
Saturday's college football slate rolls on with a number of stellar games under the lights.
Our staff came through with four best bets for those Saturday evening games, including picks for Miami vs. Clemson, Florida State vs. Duke, San Jose State vs. Utah State and BYU vs. Texas Tech.
So, whether you're looking to bet a top-25 showdown in the ACC or one that looked like it could've been a Game of the Year candidate in Week 1, we have you covered.
Read on for all four of our best bets for Saturday evening's college football slate below — and be sure to check out our best bets for Saturday's noon and afternoon kickoffs as well.
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Saturday Evening College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday evening's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 7 p.m. | ||
| 7 p.m. | ||
| 7:30 p.m. | ||
| 8 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Texas Tech vs. BYU
By Cody Goggin
BYU may have a 4-2 record, but it has struggled this year, particularly on offense.
On the season, the Cougars rank 130th in Offensive Success Rate and 115th in Havoc Allowed. They’ve benefitted from the 31st-best field position in the country, which has helped them become the 33rd-best offense in Finishing Drives.
But this is not a good offense down-to-down.
The Cougars throw the ball at the 18th-highest rate in the nation but are just 90th in Passing Success Rate and 98th in Passing PPA.
The reason they have to throw the ball so much with this poor passing offense is that their running game is even worse, ranking 133rd in the country in Rushing Success Rate this season.
BYU has not had an above-average Success Rate in any game it’s played against a Power 5 opponent. Just last weekend, we saw this team lose to TCU, 44-11, while posting a Success Rate in just the fourth percentile.
BYU’s defense ranks 80th in Success Rate because of its porous passing defense. It comes in at 39th against the run but only 119th against the pass.
Texas Tech passes at an above-average rate, so this will likely come back to bite BYU this week.
The Red Raiders haven’t been outstanding, but they have been a pretty average Big 12 team that ranks 53rd in Success Rate and 37th in Finishing Drives. They’re 30th in Rushing Success Rate but pass the ball more often than they run.
The Texas Tech passing attack hasn’t been outstanding by any means, sitting just 71st in Success Rate and 97th in PPA, as it lacks explosiveness.
Defensively, Tech is 62nd in Success Rate, coming in at 50th against the run and 77th against the pass.
Despite the records of these two teams, I think Texas Tech has been better to this point in the season.
The Red Raiders are already three-point road favorites, and I believe they’ll pick up a win and cover in Provo on Saturday.
Utah State vs. San Jose State
By Brett Pund
Whether I compare full-season or last-four-week metrics for both teams, I don’t get this number with San Jose State, especially against this tough Utah State squad.
The one selling point for the Spartans is how well they have run the ball this season, ranking 28th in Rush Success Rate. However, they are 120th in Rush Rate, which means they aren’t using their best asset on offense enough.
This likely comes down to the fact that SJSU has one of the top quarterbacks in the Mountain West in Chevan Cordeiro.
Another possible reason for this might be that opposing defenses are making sure Cordeiro doesn’t beat them with the pass, funneling the Spartans to move the ball on the ground against run-friendly defensive fronts.
On the other side of the ball, San Jose State ranks outside the top 100 across the board on defense, including Pass Success Rate (113th), Quality Drives (115th), Rush Success Rate (120th), Havoc (126th) and Line Yards (128th).
Utah State grades out better defensively in tackling and coverage grades by Pro Football Focus.
I trust the Aggies’ defense a lot more in this spot to get stops when it needs to. So, I’ll gladly take over a field goal with the road underdog here.
Duke vs. Florida State
The No. 16 Duke Blue Devils (5-1) will head south to face the No. 4 Florida State Seminoles (6-0) in a nationally televised matchup between the two schools with perfect ACC records.
Duke has been off to a strong start this season under head coach Mike Elko, having faced three nationally-ranked opponents with its lone loss coming to then-No. 11 Notre Dame, 21-14.
The Blue Devils will look to defense to keep this contest within reach as they face the Jordan Travis-led Seminole offense. Through the first six games of the season, Duke has held opposing offenses to a combined 59 points. This ranks the Blue Devil defense as fourth-best scoring defense in the nation, as they've given up just 9.8 points per game.
Where Duke excels is in pass defense, ranking eighth in the nation while allowing just 164.7 aerial yards per contest. The secondary is the second-ranked unit nationally, per PFF, and should make for the evening difficult for Travis and his wide receiver corps.
Duke defensive back Myles Jones comes in as the second-rated cornerback in FBS and will likely square up with Florida State WR1, Keon Coleman.
Blue Devils quarterback Riley Leonard has been dealing with a high ankle sprain that forced him to miss the win last week against NC State. While he went through pregame warmups, Elko ultimately held him out of the game, likely waiting to give him an extra week as they looked to tonight’s game.
Leonard is a dual-threat quarterback and offers excellent value in the current market should he come back. He should be a go for the prime-time game, and even if he's not able to make the start, I still like the Duke defense to keep this game close.
On top of the aforementioned factors, 14 and the hook is a great betting number. This sets Duke up nicely in a close game that gets away from it late or as a last resort for a backdoor cover.
My model projects Duke as 11.5-point underdogs on the road tonight, and I think this spot offers strong value, especially at any number higher than 14. I recommend taking the points in Tallahassee with a hard limit at 14.
Clemson vs. Miami
Are we sure this Miami team is any good? The Canes went just 5-7 last season and then because they beat a Texas A&M team that shockingly is underperforming again, people deemed The U as back.
After a heartbreaking (and idiotic) loss to Georgia Tech and a loss to North Carolina, they’re on the verge of dropping a third straight.
Miami has looked pretty good on offense thanks to a bounce-back season from Tyler Van Dyke (who may be injured), but this will be the best defense it has faced by a wide margin.
Clemson ranks 14th in the country in Success Rate on defense, sitting in the top 25 at defending the rush and the pass.
The Tigers don’t allow explosive plays and they create a ton of Havoc. After allowing 374 yards to Duke in the season opener, Clemson has not allowed more than 315 yards in the last five games. Only Florida State managed to top 300 yards.
Meanwhile, the Clemson offense has posted 5.7 yards per play this season and is averaging 437 yards per game.
Cade Klubnik has settled into the new system and has 11 touchdowns and two interceptions this year. He hasn’t turned the ball over in four games.
Will Shipley and Phil Mafah are each averaging more than 55 yards per game, and the offense will continue to run through them.
This offense very quietly is 13th in the nation in Success Rate and should be able to exploit a Miami defense that just gave up over 500 yards to North Carolina.
Miami has taken back-to-back frustrating losses, while the Tigers are fresh off a bye week. I expect Clemson to continue to get better as Klubnik gets more comfortable in Garrett Riley’s system.
Miami’s defense struggled against the only two good offenses it has faced.
Also, home-field advantage means nothing for Miami. Mario Cristobal has yet to win an ACC game at home with the Canes.
People love to bet against Dabo, myself included. But I think the Tigers are undervalued here.
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