College Football Betting Primer: What to Know Before Placing Week 3 Bets
Photo by David Becker/Getty Images.
Week 3 of the college football season is light. It's a lull between a spectacular Week 2 and a massive Week 4 slate.
There is not a single game that pits two ranked teams. In fact, most teams with small numbers on the left side of their name have large numbers on the right side, with many spreads in the 20s and 30s this weekend.
That said, every college football Saturday is bursting with chaos and entertainment, alongside opportunities to cash tickets.
Enjoy the games, and let’s get to the window.
This one could go well Under. Last year, these two teams played a 41-38 overtime barnburner, but things have changed. For Army, the Black Knights' new shotgun offense has had a rocky beginning, as they scored just 13 points in their opener against ULM’s traditionally generous defense. UTSA’s defense looked stout in holding Texas State to 13 last week.
But, more importantly, star quarterback Frank Harris is doubtful to play this weekend. He's looked off this year, and the UTSA attack will stay awkward until he's fully healthy.
Two threats loom this weekend for Boston, as Hurricane Lee bears down on New England and the Seminoles offense will also make landfall in Chestnut Hill.
Rainy and windy conditions are expected on Saturday afternoon, explaining why the total has dropped from the 54.5 opener to 47.5. If the weather is clear, Jordan Travis could hit that over by himself!
For Boston College, emotions will be high as this is their annual “Red Bandana Game.”
This is mostly the same Georgia Southern team that beat Nebraska in Lincoln last fall. This year, the opponent is different. The first year of Luke Fickell’s Wisconsin is a sturdier test than the decaying Scott Frost program on its last legs was.
But the Eagles did this last year, and they have the kind of spread, tempo, RPO-heavy offense that strains defenses.
The Wildcats are one of the most popular picks of the day, with 91% of bets tracked by Action Network favoring Kansas State to reprise last year’s 40-12 Tiger trouncing.
Missouri’s offense has looked toothless in the early going — they are 0-2 ATS to start the year — while K-State dispatched reigning Sun Belt champs Troy last week, bringing all the momentum into Columbia.
The Crimson Tide come off a home loss to the Texas Longhorns and head to Florida to take on the Bulls in fertile recruiting ground for Nick Saban’s program.
Our own Mike Calabrese says on these electronic pages that Alabama is a team to bet on after an early- or mid-season loss, laying out the case quite clearly for Zombie Bama.
One of the most significant position-to-position mismatches of the entire season might be this week, as Georgia’s ferocious front seven takes on South Carolina’s sieve-like offensive line. The Gamecocks have allowed 23 tackles for loss through two games, against a UNC team not known for defense and FCS Furman.
This week, they must go between the hedges and face a Georgia defense overstocked with future NFL players. Spencer Rattler is white-hot so far this season, but all signs point to his personal space being violated repeatedly on Saturday afternoon.
Iowa is a 28-point favorite in a game with a total of 43 points! The Western Michigan team total is 6.5! That’s not very many!
The Broncos offense is catastrophic this year, and Phil Parker’s Iowa defense does Phil Parker's Iowa defense things. This might be one of the last chances for Iowa to put up a good number to pad their total on the Drive to 325, and I anticipate the defense will help by doing a little scoring, too.
Tulane’s star quarterback, Michael Pratt, was a late scratch last week against Ole Miss, taking the wind out of the sails of an anticipated high-scoring showdown.
That was a Saturday afternoon surprise for bettors, but no surprises this week. Pratt will be a game-time decision in a game where Tulane is looking for revenge after last season’s bizarre loss to these Golden Eagles.
Ohio State has looked less than Ohio State-ish to start the season. This weekend, they have one last get-right spot, taking on a Hilltoppers squad that likes to sling it around the yard. Malachi Corley, one of the best receivers in the country, will be back in action for the Tops this weekend.
Ohio State’s defense has looked like the better unit in the early going, a welcome break from the usual DNA of Ryan Day’s teams.
This is a fun game – a good college football hipster game. Troy won the Sun Belt last season, but the defense that carried it to that title hasn’t been as effective through two weeks. The unit has fallen to 55th in SP+, after maintaining a top ten defensive ranking for most of last season.
James Madison gets its shot at the Trojans here after being ineligible to meet them in the conference championship game last season. The Dukes have a balanced offense and an excellent run-stuffing defense but are susceptible to big plays.
Enjoy this one.
This rock fight got even rock fightier (it’s a new word that I just made up) as the Huskers will likely be without starting quarterback Jeff Sims. He's not a world-beater, but he’s an experienced Power 5 quarterback who is a legitimate threat with his legs. Now, this Huskers attack might not even have that wrinkle.
This game has a chance to make Brian Ferentz blush.
In what passes for a big game on this slate, Tennessee is favored by a touchdown in a building where they haven’t won since 2003. It’s been rocky for Rocky Top to start the season, as the Josh Heupel offense is not yet operating at the same destructive levels as it did last fall.
The Volunteers have not been putting the “shoot” in the “veer and shoot" offense. Last fall, Hendon Hooker sported a dangerous 11.7 yards Adjusted Depth of Target. Joe Milton is at a pedestrian 7.3 ADOT this season despite his famously big arm.
Is this the week Tennessee unveils a downfield threat?
Coach Prime’s Colorado outfit is already the biggest spectacle in college football, and the numbers show it in the Action. This game is by far the most-bet game on the Saturday slate, per the Action Network App.
While Deion is finding great success in Boulder, Kenny Dillingham took the same approach in Tempe, and the results are mixed. However, his precocious blue-chipper quarterback is still a true freshman, which might add to the growing pains. Sanders trots out his veteran son, who helps steer the rebuild.
Regardless, Arizona State’s thin roster has been getting even thinner. The injury bug has bit ASU hard, especially on the offensive line. Fresno State already has one outright win on the road over a Power Five program (at Purdue), and they are favored to do it again.
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