Cal vs Oregon Odds & Prediction: Bet This Feisty Underdog
Ray Chavez/MediaNews Group/The Mercury News via Getty Images. Pictured: Cal’s Jaydn Ott.
California vs Oregon Odds
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | ML |
+25.5 -110 | 59.5 -115o / -105u | +1400 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | ML |
-25.5 -110 | 59.5 -115o / -105u | -5000 |
We have ourselves a Pac-12 matchup where the California Golden Bears face off against the Oregon Ducks on Saturday.
The Golden Bears nearly pulled off an upset at home against USC last week. Even though the Trojans have had some troubles this year, Cal lost by one point in a barn-burner after failing to convert a two-point conversion for the win.
Now, the Golden Bears head north to face a powerhouse.
After dominating Utah last week, Oregon heads back home to Eugene. The Ducks have made making minced meat out of their opponents commonplace, and a 3-5 Cal team could help continue that trend.
Where does the betting value lie in this matchup? Let's find a California vs. Oregon pick in this college football betting preview for Saturday, Nov. 4.
Cal has undergone a quarterback carousel this season, and a lot of it lies on Sam Jackson’s injury. From the looks of it, redshirt freshman Fernando Mendoza will get the nod after impressing against USC.
Last week, Mendoza threw for 292 yards and two touchdowns. Throughout the year, he’s completed 62% of his passes which is best among the three QBs who have played a snap.
Through the air, there aren’t a ton of big playmakers.
However, Trond Grizzell had himself a heck of a game last week, catching six passes for 91 yards and a touchdown. I would also expect Jeremiah Hunter to have a big presence in this game, as he leads in volume.
The passing game is unspectacular, though. Even though Mendoza has impressed, the Golden Bears rank 95th in Success Rate and 99th in PPA. They’ll need two big games in a row in order to exceed that.
Conversely, the running game is elite. Not only is Cal capable of the explosive play, but it also ranks 29th in Success Rate with a mark of sixth in PPA.
Running back Jaydn Ott is most likely going to receive a ton of carries against Oregon. Ott leads all backs in carries by a large margin, averaging six yards per carry with eight trips to the end zone.
Along with Ott, Isaiah Ifanse has found the end zone seven times and averages 5.2 yards per carry.
The defensive side of the ball is where the real struggles come into play. The Golden Bears allow 33.5 points per game and rank 103rd in Havoc.
There are no real big playmakers, as they’re 106th and 97th in Defensive Passing and Rushing Success Rate, respectively. Kaleb Elarms-Orr leads the team in total tackles, and Xavier Carlton leads in sacks, but there aren’t many eye-poppers aside from them.
As is the case most years, Oregon is elite, and quarterback Bo Nix leads the charge.
Nix has rarely made a mistake, throwing only one interception all year while gaining over 2,300 yards through the air. Along with that, he’s completed 78% of his passes.
Oregon doesn’t go for the big play a ton, but it's efficient, ranking sixth in Passing Success Rate and fourth in PPA.
Junior Troy Franklin has been Nix’s favorite target since he came to Eugene. However, this year’s been a big step for Franklin, with 16.6 yards per catch and nine trips to the end zone. Tez Johnson has also been a solid option with 12 yards per catch and four touchdowns.
The run game is truly a marvel to watch. Both Bucky Irving and Jordan James have been monsters on the ground, as each has eight touchdowns while averaging over seven yards per carry.
To go with that, this Oregon run game is second in the nation in Rushing Success Rate and first in PPA.
While the defense would have to work hard to match the numbers of this offense, it still gets the job done in terms of creating negative plays, ranking 45th in Havoc. Defensive end Jordan Burch has caused a lot of that chaos, leading the team in tackles for loss and forced fumbles.
The Ducks have also allowed only 15.6 points per game, which ranks seventh in the country.
The pass rush has been quite effective, with defensive end Brandon Dorlus leading the team with four sacks. However, defensive back Evan Williams is right behind with 3.5.
While the run defense isn’t as effective, it still works fine. Most of the time, Oregon is so far ahead that teams will have to throw the ball.
Cal vs Oregon
Betting Pick & Prediction
To the naked eye, this may seem like an easy and dominant win for Oregon. However, with the exception of its game against Washington in Week 4, Cal has managed to keep it close against ranked teams.
The USC game was a case of nearly taking advantage of a vulnerable opponent, but the talent discrepancy is awfully wide. Head coach Justin Wilcox definitely gets his team ready to play when the lights are brighter.
I also liked what I saw from Mendoza. There’s a chance Mendoza can be the full-time quarterback even when Jackson comes back after he exposed USC’s defense for 300 yards.
Regardless, I see Oregon coming out on top. Oregon’s more dynamic and will be licking its chops against a weak Bears defense. You can try to get into a shootout with the Ducks, but you won’t get far.
However, Wilcox thrives in these spots, so back Cal to make this closer than many think it'll be.
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