Arkansas vs. LSU Odds, Picks, Predictions: How to Bet Saturday Night’s SEC Showdown

Arkansas vs. LSU Odds, Picks, Predictions: How to Bet Saturday Night’s SEC Showdown article feature image
Credit:

Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images. Pictured: Garrett Nussmeier.

  • Updated odds make the Arkansas Razorbacks 3-point favorites when they travel to Baton Rouge to take on the LSU Tigers.
  • The Tigers are expected to give freshman Garrett Nussmeier snaps under center, so can Sam Pittman's Razorbacks game plan against him?
  • Collin Wilson breaks down the game and shares his top be below.

Arkansas vs. LSU Odds

Saturday, Nov. 13
7:30 p.m. ET
SEC Network
Arkansas Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-3
-105
59.5
-110o / -110u
-145
LSU Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+3
-115
59.5
-110o / -110u
+125
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Battle for the Golden Boot between Arkansas and LSU continues on Saturday night.

Although the Tigers and Razorbacks have been playing one another since 1901, “The Boot” trophy was introduced in 1996.

The Tigers have dominated since the inception of the 175-pound trophy, taking 15 of the 23 games.

LSU has won five straight, as Arkansas has not been ranked in this series since a 2011 game that saw both teams in the top three. But now, the Razorbacks are now in the College Football Playoff Top 25 and look forward to a higher-tier bowl.

What is the state of LSU football after a narrow defeat to Alabama? The Tigers put on one of the best performances of the season from a defensive line standpoint, stuffing 14-of-22 Alabama rushing attempts.

The Crimson Tide’s robust offense was limited to just a single explosive drive and an average of 3.4 yards per play in passing downs. Time will tell if Alabama’s offensive line can hold up through the SEC Championship run, but LSU head coach Ed Orgeron continues to get the most out of his squad before his departure from Baton Rouge.


Arkansas Razorbacks

Pittman Racking Up Wins

Yesssssir, Sam Pittman is a quarter-million dollars heavier in the pocket.

The second-year Razorback head coach had incentives in his contract for reaching six wins and will now make an additional quarter-million for winning a seventh and eighth game on the season.

While Razorback Nation is elated about going to a bowl, the work is incomplete with LSU, Alabama and Missouri on deck.

This no-look pass from KJ Jefferson is 🔥

(via @SECNetwork)pic.twitter.com/TeMm0EVKKr

— SI College Football (@si_ncaafb) November 6, 2021

Arkansas Offense Becoming Predictable

The comeback victory over Mississippi State did not come without hurdles. The Razorbacks did not have a single explosive drive and managed just a single possession with 10 offensive plays. The Bulldogs had more overall yards per play by a full yard and allowed only two Jefferson passes to exceed 20 yards.

Dominique Johnson ran the ball with authority, going over 100 yards on 17 attempts in place of the injured Trelon Smith.

Arkansas stayed in standard downs most of the afternoon but has become predictable in passing situations. Treylon Burks once again doubled every other player in targets.

Jefferson continues to struggle when footsteps are near, logging more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws when blitzed.

The defense played without Jalen Catalon, the unsung leader in the secondary. Mississippi State cruised in the passing game, logging three times the national average in methodical drives, which measure possessions with 10-plus plays.

Catalon’s absence was felt, as the Bulldogs generated eight yards per passing play with 10 throws over 15-plus yards. Arkansas’ ranks of 81st in coverage and 114th in passing downs explosiveness are the Achilles’ heel of the defense.

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LSU Tigers

What to Expect From LSU’s Defense

Orgeron stated the defensive package used against Arkansas will be similar to the one utilized against Alabama.

The Tigers were a menace to the Crimson Tide offensive line, generating four sacks and eight tackles for loss. LSU has multiple schemes against opposing offenses, but the 4-3 package has been deadly with blitz on 38% of downs.

🗣 MIKE JONES SACK pic.twitter.com/1RQDrc79Zl

— LSU Football (@LSUfootball) November 6, 2021

Orgeron had no issues in telegraphing the game plan against Arkansas, from a zero blitz package to a drop-eight scenario.

The biggest news from Coach O’s weekly press conference is the return of defensive back Cordale Flott. The junior cornerback has allowed just 13 receptions on 28 targets while limiting opposing players to 41 yards after the catch.

Flott will be used to go one-on-one with one of the Razorbacks’ biggest weapons in Burks.

Nussmeier Expected to See More Time at Quarterback

Multiple players are expected to see time under center for the Tigers this weekend. Freshman Garrett Nussmeier is expected to get plenty of snaps after internal conversations about burning a redshirt.

The Texas native has a cannon for an arm and was described by Orgeron as “dynamite,” but consistency in protecting the football and careless mistakes kept the freshman off the field the first half of the season.

Garrett Nussmeier and the Tigers are not ready to end this one yet.

Impressive throw and catch for six. pic.twitter.com/FOOxdT8qCn

— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) October 23, 2021

The Tigers’ ground attack was led once against Tyrion Davis-Price, generating 104 yards on 23 carries.

Orgeron rolled the dice several times against Alabama, converting 5-of-7 first downs. Davis-Price averages over five yards a carry on the season and will challenge a Razorback defense that ranks top-25 in Line Yards.


Arkansas vs. LSU Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arkansas and LSU match up statistically:

Arkansas Offense vs. LSU Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 11 78
Line Yards 17 57
Pass Success 56 82
Pass Blocking** 38 22
Big Play 24 102
Havoc 81 37
Finishing Drives 100 93
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

LSU Offense vs. Arkansas Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 106 41
Line Yards 99 23
Pass Success 38 66
Pass Blocking** 16 43
Big Play 84 28
Havoc 65 50
Finishing Drives 15 44
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 56 22
Coverage 81 38
Middle 8 22 104
SP+ Special Teams 59 16
Plays per Minute 38 49
Rush Rate 65.7% (7) 47.5% (112)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Arkansas vs. LSU Betting Pick

The first handicap in this game is whether or not the LSU defense can get Arkansas off schedule when a heavy amount of rushing attempts are called. Although the Tigers defense is 78th in Rushing Success Rate, there’s renewed focus, as Alabama was stuffed on 14-of-22 attempts on the ground.

The Razorbacks are 42nd in Offensive Stuff Rate, as the biggest challenge for the LSU defense is getting Arkansas into passing downs. The Hogs will be tested from a chaos and blitz perspective, as the LSU defense is top-25 in pass rush.

Flott’s return is big for the Tigers when it comes to Jefferson scramble attempts that have him looking for Burks downfield. LSU will send a heavy amount of blitz and disguise dropping eight into coverage, forcing different looks for Jefferson.

The bigger issue for the Razorbacks may be a freshman quarterback under center for the LSU offense. Nussmeier will share snaps with Max Johnson for an offense that sits 21st in passing downs Success Rate.

The LSU offensive line spent half of the season getting a solid rotation but now ranks 16th in pass blocking, per PFF. That is of utmost importance against a healthy Tre Williams at the defensive edge position for the Razorbacks.

LSU’s biggest advantage is putting points on the board, as offensive coordinator Jake Peetz has the Tigers at 15th in the nation in Finishing Drives.

The Action Network projection has LSU as a small favorite against a market that favors the Razorbacks with plenty of support from investors early in the week.

Arkansas has earned respect, but to be favored by almost a field goal in Baton Rouge may be more about the perception of Orgeron making his exit and the Hogs being the hot team.

Arkansas continued to have scoring gaps in multiple possessions against Mississippi State, as halftime adjustments generally put the Razorbacks on course.

The Hogs have trailed at halftime over the past four SEC games, indicating Jefferson could have issues picking up a multiple look from LSU’s defense.

On the flip side, Nussmeier will take advantage of a Barry Odom defense that gives up plenty of yards and looks to stiffen in the red zone.

Pick: LSU 1H ML +105 or Better

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