College Football Odds, Picks: How We’re Betting Tuesday’s NCAAF Bowl Games (December 26)

After a two-day break, college football bowl games are back — and there are plenty to go around.

From today on, there are at least three bowl games every single day until Sunday. Then, on Monday, we have a few more bowls to go alongside this year's College Football Playoff games.

So, as college football fans and bettors, we have a big week ahead.

It all starts Tuesday, with three bowl games: Bowling Green vs. Minnesota in the Quick Lane Bowl, Texas State vs. Rice in the First Responder Bowl and Kansas vs. UNLV in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.

Check out our full betting previews and picks for Tuesday's college football games below — and be sure to look back tomorrow for even more college football betting coverage.

Tuesday College Football Bowl Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups from Tuesday's slate of college football bowl games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By BJ Cunningham

Bowling Green and Minnesota meet in Detroit to close out their seasons in the Quick Lane Bowl on Tuesday afternoon.

The Falcons started out the season incredibly poor but rebounded by winning five of their last six games to finish the season 7-5. They will have most of their roster and will definitely be motivated to close out their season with a win over a Power Five team.

Minnesota, meanwhile, snuck into a bowl game with only five wins and also lost its final four games of the regular season.

The Golden Gophers have a lot of potential opt-outs and have already lost their defensive coordinator, so they may not be that motivated for this game.

Where does the betting value lie here? Let's take a look.

Bowling Green will have its full offense available outside of running back Terion Stewart, who has been out injured for a while.

The Falcons offense is built on a consistent rushing attack, as they run the ball on 56% of their offensive plays.

Even though Stewart is out, Bowling Green has another dynamic running back in Ta’Ron Keith. Keith is averaging 6.4 yards per carry with a PFF rushing grade of 88.8. He's proven to be an absolute bulldozer this year, averaging 4.1 yards per carry after contact.

Keith will be a big factor against a Minnesota front seven that has been below-average at stopping the run this season.

Connor Bazelak had an up-and-down season but played well down the stretch and was a big reason why Bowling Green won five of its last six games.

Since Week 8, Bazelak has averaged 7.9 yards per attempt while throwing seven touchdowns and one interception. In that span, he ranks top-35 in the country in positive EPA play percentage.

On the other side, Bowling Green’s defense will have to stop the run — something the Falcons have struggled to do consistently, ranking outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.

To make matters worse, outside linebacker Cashius Howell — who led the MAC with 9.5 sacks — has hit the transfer portal along with first-team All-MAC cornerback Jalen Huskey.

Minnesota is in an interesting spot at quarterback. Starting quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis hit the transfer portal, along with backup Drew Viotto. That leaves Cole Kramer, who has taken six snaps this season, in position to start.

Kramer will be handing the ball off quite a bit because Minnesota has one of the highest rush rates in the country at 60.9%.

It looks like star Minnesota running back Darius Taylor is going to play in this game, which is massive for the Golden Gophers, as Taylor hasn't played since their game against Iowa in Week 8.

Taylor averaged 5.7 yards per carry on over 100 totes this season and had three straight 100-yard games.

If he isn't available, Minnesota has plenty of other options to consistently run the ball against Bowling Green's below-average run defense.

The problem with Minnesota this season has been the defense. The Gophers allow 5.8 yards per play and sit outside the top 90 in both Success Rate Allowed and EPA/Play Allowed. They haven't consistently stopped the run or the pass and rank 99th in EPA/Rush Allowed and 102nd in EPA/Pass Allowed.

They're also one of the worst teams in the country at defending their own area of the field, ranking 130th in Finishing Drives Allowed and red-zone scoring percentage allowed.

Even though Minnesota will start its third-string quarterback and both offenses play at a snail's pace, I'm not sure how either defense is going to consistently stop the opposing offense.

Bowling Green, which lost two of its best defensive players and hasn't shown the ability to stop the run, is going up against an offense that's going to run it the majority of the time.

The Falcons offense — especially Bazelak — has drastically improved down the stretch. Additionally, Minnesota struggles when it comes to defending its own territory, so Bowling Green should be able to put a lot of points on the board.

The Gophers may have a little extra motivation in this game, however. In 2021, Bowling Green went to Minneapolis as a 30.5-point underdog and won the game outright.

I have 47.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 39.5 points at BetMGM.

Pick: Over 39.5

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By John Feltman

Welcome to the 2023 First Responder Bowl in Dallas. We've got the Texas State Bobcats taking on the Rice Owls at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in a battle between teams that are not accustomed to playing in bowl season.

The story for the Owls is that quarterback JT Daniels medically retired Dec. 1 because of a shoulder injury that kept him out for the majority of the season. AJ Padgett, who accumulated some decent numbers down the stretch, will remain under center.

On the other side, G.J. Kinne's Bobcats are certainly going to be fired up to play in their first bowl game in program history, especially in their home state of Texas.

Let's take a deeper dive into this matchup with a team breakdown below before making a Texas State vs. Rice prediction in the 2023 First Responder Bowl.

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The story of this Bobcats team was their offensive production. Quarterback TJ Finley had a tremendous season, throwing for 3,287 yards and 24 touchdowns.

Running back Ismail Mahdi was sensational all year as well, running for 1,209 yards and 10 scores on the ground. This offense proved it could beat opponents in multiple ways, which is what it will be looking to show in this matchup.

Texas State ranked top-20 in Offensive Line Yards, Rushing Success Rate and Passing Success Rate. The Bobcats were also spectacular at Finishing Drives, which was a big reason why their offense was so successful.

There aren't many notable names that hit to the portal for Texas State, but there are a couple of injuries worth monitoring. Starting left guard Dorion Strawn and wide receiver Joey Hobert did not play in the season finale, so it'll be interesting to see if they suit up for this contest.

If Strawn plays, that will be a huge lift for this Bobcats rushing attack. Regardless, I would expect them to establish the run early with their high-tempo offense facing a mediocre Owls run defense.

Finley will be put to the test against a stingy Owls secondary, so the Bobcats will need to capitalize in the red zone considering the Owls come in at 44th in Defensive Finishing Drives.

This Texas State team was solid in the trenches all season, and the Owls don't have much success running the ball either. The Bobcats' rank of 110th in PFF tackling should help in that area as well.

The problem for Texas State is that the Owls thrived through the air even without Daniels, and this is a vulnerable Bobcats secondary.

I trust Texas State's offense to remain explosive, but I have legitimate questions about its ability to contain the aerial attack.

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I touched on this above, but I think the Owls will be slinging it all over the field on Tuesday.

While it has been tough to run the ball against the Bobcats' defensive front, their secondary has been exposed all year long. This might not be a fast-paced game, but the Owls should be able to keep up throughout. If Padgett protects the football, he could have a big day.

Just like the Bobcats, there are no notable opt-outs for the Owls either.

The one area where I have legitimate concerns for Rice is its ability to prevent Havoc, as it ranked 108th in Havoc Allowed. That's not ideal when going up against a good defensive front, so the Bobcats could be playing in the backfield all evening.

Rice's defensive strength lies in the secondary, thanks to its excellent ability to tackle and cover. The Owls finished top-55 in both PFF coverage and tackle grading throughout the year.

I have a good feeling about the Owls offense in this game, but I have some questions about their defense holding up against this fast-paced Bobcats offense.

I feel much more comfortable targeting the total instead of backing either side here, and this is a great game to take the over.

I trust the Bobcats offense more than the Owls, but Padgett could easily have a career day against this horrific Texas State secondary. The spread seems to be about right, but these offenses are bound to have plenty of success.

What really sold me on the over is the ability of both teams to finish drives. Both offenses rank top-25 in that area, and while Texas State has done a decent job of keeping opponents out of the end zone, I have a feeling the Bobcats' secondary is going to let them down in a big way.

Expect both of these offenses to battle it out. We should be in for a high-scoring affair in Dallas.

Pick: Over 59.5 (Play to 60.5)

By Collin Wilson

The Guaranteed Rate Bowl will feature one of the most appealing offenses in college football, as bowl season kicks off its post-Christmas games.

This game will be played in another MLB ballpark, coming from Chase Field in Phoenix.

The bowl has changed names several times since its previous editions as the famous original Cheez-It Bowl, Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl and Domino's Pizza Bowl. Kansas won its only trip in this game when it was the Insight Bowl in 2008. UNLV will make its first trip to the Guaranteed Rate Bowl, representing a Mountain West Conference that's 1-1 in the history of this specific bowl.

Head coach Barry Odom took over the UNLV job after serving as the Arkansas defensive coordinator for a number of years.

Odom's first order of business was to hire an offensive coordinator. Bobby Petrino landed that role before Texas A&M swept the coach to College Station. Odom was quick to move to one of the youngest offensive minds in college football in Brennan Marion, the inventor of the GoGo offense.

Kansas is a team in transition as well, as Lance Leipold was hired before the 2021 season. This will be Leipold's second consecutive bowl after a thriller with Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl a year ago.

The winning nature of the reborn Jayhawks has come at a price in the coaching staff, as offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has moved on to take the same position with Penn State. Leipold made an immediate hire by bringing in Jeff Grimes, one of the most respected offensive minds in college football who previously worked at LSU, Baylor and BYU.

There will be no shortage of offensive fireworks in the game originally known as the Copper Bowl.

Kotelnicki's absence shouldn't change the offensive play-calling in this bowl game. Leipold stated that Grimes' hiring will make for an easy transition because there won't be changes in terms of "terminology, philosophies or schemes."

Kansas prefers to rush at a 60% ratio, using outside zone and counter concepts. Both schemes have been successful this season, but the usage of counter has created an explosives play on 25% of attempts.

Running back Devin Neal and quarterback Jason Bean have been lethal in counter concepts, as Kansas uses one of the heaviest amounts of pre-snap motion in the nation.

The Jayhawks rank top-25 in nearly every advanced offensive analytic, including broken tackles created and pass explosives.

The defense is a continued work in progress under coordinator Brian Borland.

The personnel changes between a 3-2-6 and 2-4-5 depending on down and distance, creating a focus on limiting the explosive pass.

However, opposing offenses have generated a high amount of rushing explosives on the Jayhawks. Kansas finished outside the top 100 in Defensive Quality Drives and Finishing Drives, opting to rely on Havoc and quarters coverage to prevent offenses from scoring quickly.

There may not be a more appealing offense to watch than that of the Rebels.

Much like Kansas, Marion wants to confuse opposing defenses with heavy pre-snap motion. UNLV has been known to show nearly every formation a person could find in a college football video game, pivoting between two tight ends, two running backs and an empty backfield from down to down.

Led by freshman quarterback Jayden Maiava, the UNLV offense has been absolutely thrilling to watch.

Maiava took over as the starter in week 4 against UTEP, ending the season with 14 touchdowns to just eight interceptions. The running back trio of Vincent Davis, Jai'Den Thomas and Donavyn Lester combined for 34 runs exceeding 10 yards.

While UNLV is a top-10 rush explosive unit, the consistency came through the air. The Rebels ranked 25th in Passing Success Rate and 27th in on-target rate.

The offense had to supply plenty of points to help out a defense that struggled in Mountain West action. UNLV's three-man front pivoted between nickel and dime packages, ranking a lowly 126th in Defensive Passing Success Rate.

Opposing offenses found plenty of success in standard downs against a defense that fell outside of the top 100 in Havoc.

UNLV also faces the loss of one of its most productive edge rushers in Zavier Carter, as the transfer portal gobbled up his 21 pressures.

The only guarantee in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl is two dynamic offenses taking advantage of subpar defenses.

With a much tougher strength of schedule, Kansas has extreme offensive advantages in the passing game. KU and its rank of 12th in pass explosives will face a UNLV defense that's 127th in passing EPA.

With dominant numbers in Stuff Rate and explosives at the second level, the Jayhawks will also be able to run at will. Not only does Kansas generate a heavy amount of explosives from outside zone, but UNLV also has one of the lowest efficiency rates at protecting the edge against that exact rush concept.

These same advantages exist for UNLV's offense, which uses inside and outside zone with multiple tight ends and running backs. Kansas finished the season 109th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate while also allowing a high amount of explosives.

Both Borland and UNLV defensive coordinator Mike Scherer are sure to struggle with instructing defenders on how to handle heavy pre-snap motion.

Considering bowl teams on long layoffs struggle to tackle in the first few series of games, look for plenty of points in the first half of the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.

Pick: 1H Over 33.5

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