College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Colorado State vs. Iowa: Your Saturday Betting Guide (Sept. 25)

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Colorado State vs. Iowa: Your Saturday Betting Guide (Sept. 25) article feature image
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Photo by Matthew Holst/Getty Images Pictured: Iowa QB Spencer Petras

  • Colorado State travels to Iowa City on Saturday to take on a top-five Iowa squad.
  • The Hawkeyes have been rolling this season, coming off a win over Kent State and entering this game as big favorites.
  • Alex Hinton breaks down the game below and shares a betting pick and prediction based on his analysis.

Colorado State vs. Iowa Odds

Colorado State Odds +23.5 (-115)
Iowa Odds -23.5 (-105)
Moneyline +1000 / -2000
Over/Under 44
Time 3:30 p.m. ET
TV FS1
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Week 4 of the college football season marks the end of summer, as well as the end of non-conference play for the most part.

While there are some conference matchups taking place this week from October through the end of the season, non-conference matchups will be far in between.

Colorado State begins its Mountain West Conference schedule in two weeks, but not before a trip to Iowa City to battle the Iowa Hawkeyes. This will be the first-ever meeting between the two programs.

For Colorado State, it has already been an up-and-down September.

The Rams began the season with losses to South Dakota State and Vanderbilt. However last week, the Rams went on the road and thoroughly handled a solid Toledo squad that nearly upset Notre Dame the week before.

Colorado State was 14.5 point underdogs before pulling off the upset over Toledo.

Iowa began Big Ten play with a 34-6 win against Indiana. The Hawkeyes then went on the road and defeated rival Iowa State 27-17 before defeating Kent State 30-7 last week.

The Hawkeyes are a cool 3-0 Against The Spread (ATS) this season.


Colorado State vs. Iowa Betting Preview

Saturday, Sept. 25
3:30 p.m. ET
FS1

Colorado State Rams

Colorado State Offense

With evenly split plays on the ground and through the air, the Rams aim to be a balanced offense.

However, the Rams have more success on the ground.

Last week at Toledo, the Rams posted a Rushing Success Rate of 52.1%, compared to a 20.7% Passing Success Rate.

That is partly due to quarterback Todd Centeio, who’s a dual-threat but struggles a bit with his accuracy, completing just 56.1% of his passes.

Running back David Bailey is the team’s leading rusher with 258 rushing yards and two touchdowns this season.

When Colorado State goes to the air, Centeio has a pair of talented weapons in tight end Trey McBride and wide receiver Dante Wright. McBride leads the team with 30 receptions and 339 yards. Wright missed the Toledo game with an injury and he may be out again on Saturday.


Colorado State Defense

The defensive side of the ball is where the Rams have shined in the early part of the year. The Rams rank fifth in Rushing Success Rate allowed and 18th in Pass Success Rate allowed.

The pass rush has been a real strength thus far as the Rams rank eight in Pass Rush and 24th in sacks with nine through the first three games. Linebacker Mohamed Kamara leads the team with 3.5 sacks.

Colorado State could stand to benefit from creating more Havoc and limiting big plays. However, against Iowa, limiting explosive plays shouldn’t be a big concern.

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Iowa Hawkeyes

Iowa Offense

The Hawkeyes are 3-0, but it’s not because of their offense.

The Hawkeyes are averaging 298 yards per game of total offense, which is third-worst among Power Five teams above Kansas and Colorado.

The Hawkeyes just don’t generate many explosive plays. Quarterback Spencer Petras is averaging just 5.5 yards per attempt and has just two touchdown passes in three games.

When Iowa does create a big play, it’s usually because of running back Tyler Goodson. The junior has 307 rushing yards and five touchdowns, three of which have gone for 56, 46, and 35 yards.

In typical Iowa fashion, tight end Sam LaPorta is the team’s leading receiver with 13 catches for 169 yards and a touchdown.

Thus far, Iowa’s best offense has been its defense.


Iowa Defense

Iowa has averaged 30 points per game in its first three outings, however, eight of those points came from the defense. The Hawkeyes have forced seven turnovers and brought back three of them for touchdowns. They also added a safety for good measure.

Senior defensive back Riley Moss is tied for the team lead with two interceptions (both pick-6’s).

While turnovers can be difficult to rely on consistently, Iowa can hang its hat on its ability to create Havoc and limit big plays. The Hawks are 19th in Havoc, seventh in Big Play Percentage allowed and 25th in Finishing Drives.

That all adds up to a scoring defense that ranks fourth nationally at 10 points per game.


Colorado State vs. Iowa Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Colorado State and Iowa match up statistically:

Colorado State Offense vs. Iowa Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 58 72
Line Yards 17 46
Pass Success 105 38
Pass Blocking** 84 80
Big Play 34 7
Havoc 27 19
Finishing Drives 125 25
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Iowa Offense vs. Colorado State Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 93 5
Line Yards 106 17
Pass Success 98 18
Pass Blocking** 86 8
Big Play 93 87
Havoc 88 87
Finishing Drives 89 25
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 62 104
PFF Coverage 95 14
Middle 8 108 22
SP+ Special Teams 60 11
Plays per Minute 8 113
Rush Rate 51.5% (82) 56.8% (57)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Colorado State vs. Iowa Betting Pick

Last week, Colorado State won despite not scoring an offensive touchdown. The Rams returned a punt for a touchdown and kicked five field goals.

Colorado State may have a bit of success moving the ball against Iowa on the ground. However, it may struggle to turn its possessions into touchdowns seeing as it ranks 125th in Finishing Drives while Iowa’s defense ranks 25th in the same category.

Conversely, Iowa ranks 89th in Finishing Drives on offense while only averaging 22 points per game. The Hawkeyes offensive line has struggled this season, but the unit played well against Kent State.

That being said, Colorado State has a better defensive front than Kent State and Iowa’s offensive line won’t have a huge size advantage. Colorado State’s defensive line will give it a chance to hang around.

I do expect Iowa to take an early lead in this game and if it does, it will be able to dictate the game flow.

If Colorado State gets behind and is forced to throw, it will not have much success against Iowa’s defense. The Rams’ options on the perimeter will be limited without Wright and Iowa’s defense ranks 14th in Pass Coverage Grade.

Playing with a lead will allow Iowa to slow the game down and run its offense at its snail’s pace.

With the Hawkeyes not creating many big plays, that means a lot of double-digit play scoring drives and a lot of time off the clock. Last week, the Hawkeyes had a 20-play drive against Kent State, one of the worst defenses in the country.

For all of these reasons, I am taking the under.

You might have to worry about an Iowa defensive touchdown to push the total up, but that is bound to level off at some point. The under has hit in five of the two teams’ six combined games this season.

Pick: Under 45  -110 (DraftKings)

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